GSR turning around soon?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by sgbuyer, Mar 28, 2020.

  1. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,304
    Likes Received:
    1,342
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    I’ve been reading that GSR will only turn if inflation takes off. Which means the world had been suffering from deflationary pressure the last couple of years.
     
  2. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2010
    Messages:
    3,301
    Likes Received:
    1,546
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Sydney
    Why do you say dunny rolls are a supply chain issue? Aren’t all our toilet paper made in Australia?
     
  3. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,404
    Likes Received:
    718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    Apparently Australia is 80% self-sufficient in toilet paper, however even if they were 100% Australian made, it makes no difference and was still a supply-chain issue.

    I reference it analogously to the food manufacturer I am currently involved with - 100% Australian made and owned, they
    supply one of the large 2 supermarket chains Australia-wide with an in-house brand of food staple. T
    hey always have 6 months supply of the product in storage, but only stock their warehouse with 3 weeks worth of retail packaged stock. The reason is warehouse space - retail packages take up a lot more room than bulk storage.
    When panic buying struck in February, they received 4 weeks worth of retail orders in one week, which completed depleted all warehouse stocks instantly. Packing 24/7 for the next 8 weeks has only recently managed to get on top of supply issues, especially to distribution centres in cities like Perth and Hobart where lead times are up to a week.
    Put simply, it became a supply-chain issue.
     
    Pendragon, leo25 and 66rounds like this.
  4. Alloy

    Alloy Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2018
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    48
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    San Francisco Bay Area, USA
    I don't think the GSR is a valid or useful statistic for valuing either metal. What is the angle supposed to be? Does it help predict anything? Are there any experts or traders here who can comment on whether it's used in finance or the exchanges?

    I guess one test would be to model it and see if it predicts price movement, with some latency.
     
  5. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,404
    Likes Received:
    718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    I wouldn't call it a statistic, or a price movement predictor.
    It is more a hold-the-finger-in-the-wind gauge of where some think price should be.
    While the theory is based on a loose historical empirical observation, quantitatively it exists as a mere single-line chart that some cling to as hope to return to the ratio of roman times - around 9:1.
    Whilst we all have the right to dream, this historical ratio fails to take into account factors that have come into existence since Julius's assassination - like industrial activity and uses for metal, cultural shifts, mining technologies and associated costs, and huge developments in our world economies such as international trading, energy markets and governments and central banking.
    Ironically, those with the imagination wild enough to see the return of this historical ratio a real possibility usually lack the ability to grasp simple contract theory from which current prices are derived, and this lack of simple comprehension often leads them to turn to their wild imagination to look for a scapegoat - namely an alternate and even more impetuous theory of price manipulation.
     
    Chad Valiant likes this.
  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,304
    Likes Received:
    1,342
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    I don't use the GSR to predict price movements, but it does tell you if something is cheap or expensive over a long run.

    I own gold for wealth preservation but silver is a bet. I'm betting that property construction will slow down, and this will cause base metal production to slow. As we know, the majority of base metals is used in infrastructure and buildings. Meanwhile, the demand for phones/computers and solar panels will not fall as much or may even rise so the demand for silver will rise while supply plunges.

    A lot is talked about the dollar bubble, but no one talks about the huge property bubble which in my opinion is the biggest bubble. There's a good reason why few talk about the property bubble - because most people are in it or their livelihoods are tied to it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
    silverhair likes this.
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,304
    Likes Received:
    1,342
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    Wow, GSR of 103. Better than I expect, but I still expect a final upswing, but who knows?
     
  8. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2013
    Messages:
    1,216
    Likes Received:
    943
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SE QLD
    let's band together and get the MSM to broadcast that colloidal silver kills covid19.

    TO DA MOON BABY!
     
    Karoi, sellmeyourbullion and STKR like this.
  9. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,809
    Likes Received:
    2,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    looks like metals prices are heading higher, and GSR will be heading down
     
  10. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2019
    Messages:
    263
    Likes Received:
    351
    Trophy Points:
    63
    How important is the paper GSR anyway?

    Paper prices vs physical are very different ratio wise...
     
    Holdfast likes this.
  11. jroly

    jroly New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2013
    Messages:
    25
    Likes Received:
    11
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Location:
    Australia
    Hey the GSR is turning around really quickly, don't buy phy, just buy ETPMAG, why pay a 50% premium? I also have Perth Mint account and the spread is at record $1.50 and on top of 1% fee, F that.
     
    sgbuyer likes this.
  12. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,809
    Likes Received:
    2,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    this moon ?
    looks like turning away from the moon

    [​IMG]
     
  13. jroly

    jroly New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2013
    Messages:
    25
    Likes Received:
    11
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Location:
    Australia
    Lucky little bugger but they can swim too.
     
    STKR likes this.
  14. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2019
    Messages:
    247
    Likes Received:
    292
    Trophy Points:
    63
    upload_2020-5-16_17-31-30.png upload_2020-5-16_17-31-30.png
    What about this
     
  15. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2019
    Messages:
    247
    Likes Received:
    292
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Sigma GSR...long term return on investment just as bad as silver. No wonder it was labelled GSR
     
  16. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    9,607
    Likes Received:
    835
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia

    If we use The Perth Mint retail prices lets have a look.
    2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Gold Bullion Coin = $2860.73AUD
    2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Silver Bullion Coin = $31.63AUD
    Retail GSR for single coins = about 90.4
    90.4 troy ounces of silver will buy 1 troy ounce of gold in Australia.

    Lets look at some other dealers.
    APMEX
    2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Gold Bullion Coin = $1882.59USD
    2020 Australian Kangaroo 1oz Silver Bullion Coin = $25.37USD
    Retail GSR for single coins = about 74.2
    74.20 troy ounces of silver will buy 1 troy ounce of gold in America

    These figures do not adequately reflect the GSR so don't go ear bashing me please. :D
     
  17. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2019
    Messages:
    263
    Likes Received:
    351
    Trophy Points:
    63
    The difference between American and local GSR for physical in your calculation is quite a shock to me
     
    Holdfast likes this.
  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,304
    Likes Received:
    1,342
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    Although I think GSR is on the high end, I won't be buying silver at the current price as a deflationary hit will lower both gold and silver prices regardless of what happens to GSR.
     
  19. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    4,045
    Likes Received:
    1,263
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    A supply chain is still a supply chain, it has raw material supply, process labour, warehousing, and distribution. When you have the local economy shutting down due to all this panic, supply chains are stressed even if they are local. Add then on top of that you have the supply and demand production schedule. So when you have the ridiculous sudden demand, the system wasn't design to cope, the "supply chain" breaks down.

    [​IMG]
     
    heartastack likes this.
  20. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    4,045
    Likes Received:
    1,263
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    That's the thing, the GSR is not something that people buy or trade, it's a ratio by-product of markets that work by their own forces.
     
    STKR likes this.

Share This Page