Technicals are one thing but in a world of political, social, economic and geological unrest, i would think the rule book gets thrown out the window.
I'll be surprised if the AUD drops below parity in the first correction as I think the AUD is moving from a trading football to a second level refuge - somewhat like Canadian and Swiss currencies. Along with economic circumstances we've never seen before (Euro so wobbly, USD so weakened), are new trading rules as everyone tries whatever they can to get some safety and some returns into their positions. Perhaps history will mean the trade off on the AUD for a while, but it has been showing quite a bit of strength and a drop to 85 would be quite a vote of no confidence. Even so, I think gold is about as good buying as we'll see for a while in AUD.
The 1425 USD level is old resistance and interestingly it also currently coincides with the 150d SMA making it now a strong level of support Since about end of Jan 2009 - price has been above the 150d SMA - this 150d SMA has been tested 4-5 times and each time buying has emerged
I think you are a little of the mark regarding Australia being a second tier refuge, our banks are teetering on default and the mining boom, which is keeping them [banks] afloat is driven by a hyperinflating China. I do however believe its probably in the top 5 of a very bad bunch.
The best of the worst I am so torn between gold and silver for my SMSF I am setting up, can't go much wrong with the two but gold is looking increasingly tempting!
Australia sells hard commodities(iron ore,etc).If the Economic conditions worsen,they will be less valuable because less in demand.This would cause the AUD to fall. Also speculators bid up the AUS because of its high interest rates.In insecure times they go for safety,and this would be another force in the fall of Aud. There are safer things than the AUD. I continually get confused with too much information,but when I look at the larger picture,gold always looks good. Can I doubt that Economic conditions will worsen?
I'm waiting out for another run up in the USDX which should be beneficial for us. But what was pointed out in previous posts, these tech analysis are referring to the gold price in USD and not taking into account the AUD cross rate which has shown in the past to have a significant effect on the price of gold in AUD. See the below image: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5SRMMEtDJC0/Tbo1sJkKFqI/AAAAAAAAGEE/CbPpX1XHerE/s1600/USDX.jpg QE1: Nov. 2008-June 2010 QE2: Nov. 2010-June 2011 (estimation) I would expect to see once QE2 if finished a short term rally in the USDX and a slump in markets before QE3 kicks in and rinse/repeat. This rally in the USDX will be quite beneficial for gold in AUD if you look at the charts you will see the significant moves in November 2008 and early 2009 when USDX really started to dive from QE1
Just look at the US$ in the last 24 hours. Droped from 74.90 to 74.37 If the dollar not start going back to yestedays level the we could this selling over very soon.
Nice daily chart vid on the USD/Au Stellar. I cant see any signatures on the AUD/Au daily by itself or overlayed on it albeit stretching or compressing the graphs tho . It all looks somewhat ho hum flatish. To see what the Aud does do if what Stellar pointed out in the vid transpires will be interesting. Julie id be happy to see 86 again dont think the fed have much room to move interest rates up. Hi ho our banks tettering nigh on default ? . Havnt heard that one before buddy.
God, what just happened to the Gold price? It just shot up incredibly, from $1520 to $1530 per ounce in the space of a few minutes (very odd thing for gold to do).
I think the reason may have had to do with the announcement that Frances major banks have just been given a warning that they may be downgraded due to their exposure to Greek debt.
I can remember where I read the article, but it was mentioned that the biggest insurers of the Greek default insurance are American banks. Also the fundamental headlines for today Fundamental Headlines Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in May - Bloomberg Manufacturing in New York Area Shrank in June - Bloomberg Euro-zone Worries Halt Risk Asset Rally Financial Times Greek Strikers Converge on Parliament Financial Times Stock Futures' Selloff Accelerates - WSJ
