I noticed the sharp gold price drop overnite and went investigating to see what might have been the cause. Some people are blaming it on "Fat Fingers" but I hadn't heard it referred to as a Muppet Trade before :- http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2017-06-26/Was-There-A-Rhyme-Or-Reason.html I am skeptical (of course) because there was a corresponding sharp drop in Silver at the same time. If it was an accident I would also expect some damage control/correction of the market afterward. It does still amaze me that a single trade can have such an impact on an important market like this. My inner conspiracy nut says it could be a manipulation at a time when the technicals were showing real indications of a strong breakout above the 6 year bear trend for gold. This sharp move has significantly damaged those technicals, so....mission accomplished? Or....nothing to see here so move on?
Definitely manipulation, China and other countries are still buying as far as I'm aware. Why would someone off load so much gold in one hit? And this is as good excuse as any, to manipulate downwards, with paper gold. Silver and platinum is just imitating the direction of the gold price, no rhyme or reason to act differently.
this is clearly manipulation, i don't know how anyone can legitimately explain this in any other way. Also the timing was very convenient.
Well, wrcmad often lurks around these parts. He is pretty knowledgeable and is typically a manipulation denier, so I'd be very interested to hear his take on it.
or maybe someone created a smart contract that went bad maybe the same one that was used on coinbase with Ethereum haha
Nobody denies that it is possible to move a market instantaneously with a large enough trade. This is not the same as controlling the price over a long period of time. This trade will not change the trend, whichever way it is going.
The 30 day chart shows Gold declining considerably, without this 'muppet trade' so I'd be erring along the side of 'nothing to see here folks'. Certainly not manipulation.
What are you talking about? Gold was about to break out of a 6 year down trend, so it was a really big deal. Certainty was manipulation.
Very good Julie. Thanks for that. Sometimes things just don't look "right" but it's hard to put a finger on it. But after a little bit of digging the clues can sometimes come together like jigsaw pieces. This is why I love this forum
Maybe. I'm sure it changed the life of the trader with fat fingers who lost billions.... Do you know what TA is and how/why it works?
What am I talking about? Do you really think this one trade (or set of trades) somehow miraculously stopped the breakout? I've attached the charts so you can look for yourself. I think they clearly show that independent of that trade (or trades) the price was declining in the short-term. Now if the 30 day decline wasn't enough to stop the long-term breakout, I don't know how you can then say that one trade has somehow stopped the breakout. It's absurd to isolate that particular trade (or set of trades) as being manipulation, when clearly the market as a whole has moved in much greater orders of magnitude at different times. There was certainly a drop happening before the 23rd, as seen in the 30 day chart, did this have material effect on the 5yr trend? Not really. Has the buying of India/Turkey pushed the price up considerably since the Eid holiday finished on Monday? View attachment 30 View attachment 5
In the very long time frame then no you can't manipulate forever, but you can alter price direction short to medium time frame. Medium being years. Since most people use charting its very easy to do by doing stuff like what we just saw. I didn't think anyone even questioned that anymore. manipulation is just part of the game today, whether is bonds, currency's or gold. But as always the market will always over power at the end.
Another theory :- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-28/last-weeks-gold-fatfinger-trade-was-options-expiry-spoof
looks like the same thing just happened to silver. Someone did a big sell that pushed it from $16 to about $14.20, then it went back up to $15.80. They are getting very blatant with it.
I haven't done any TA on silver recently. Might have a look later today and see if there's any significant context. On a semi-related note, I thought this article was interesting :- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-06/gold-options-skew-signal-short-term-upside-potential As you say, it may be blatant....or it may be a bit of desperation creeping in. I guess when you're up to the eyeballs in a debt ponzi scheme, is throwing a few extra billion dollars at a paper market to keep the scheme going really going to cost you any extra?
