You and I obviously have a completely different view of the world and the economic future we may face.
Another point to think about, which makes it even harder to decide when to cash out, if deflation is ripe and gold sits at $1300 USD, what a platform to launch into inflation, with all the QE and liquidity. Coupled with a weak aussie dollar. More beer needed.
I think it's very reasonable to assume it's more likely to hit $2K soon than plummet back down to $1K. My bet is it will at least hit the record (in AUD) in the next few months.
Indeed. But my view is backed by demonstrable historical data, yours is just pie-in-the-sky. Nothing wrong with betting on pie-in-the-sky of course, but I'm doing that on some speculative mining shares that are orders of magnitude more likely to produce a huge gain than metal does. I'll say it again, if you are in the metals market to make huge gains of 5-10 times or greater then you are demonstrably in the wrong market to do that. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but there is simply no real history of it, and there is a lot of history.
There is if you live in any number of places where inflation has wiped out savers and creditors. I'm pretty sure I could find a few examples in pretty much every decade since 1900. Many of them starting with the sort of central banking conditions were seeing more and more regularly now. Also gold went from roughly (inflation adjusted) $500 to $2000 from 75 to 79. Not just 2011 to look to. Not saying that hyperinflation or to the moon is definately coming but you can't really say that there's no historical examples.
Australia around 24% in 1951 Around the World..... too easy: Just a couple of examples..... Venezuela 60.9% 2014 May Sudan 46.8% 2014 July Belarus 32.8% 2014 December Argentina 24.2% 2014 November Iran 14.6 % 2014 June Syria 13.6% 2014 February Ukraine 13% 2014 December Egypt 10.61% 2014 June Go back in time ...... Angola, Argentina. Armenia, Austria, Azerbaihjan, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Estonia, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, ETC, ETC, ETC......
Long term I'm more concerned with its value in USD. The rise in the gold price in AUD recently has been a welcome respite, but nothing has changed really. The can is still being kicked down the road, the mother of corrections is becoming more and more corpulent and wet dreams do exist. I have no faith in our current economic system, it is destined to fail. This is why I am in gold.
A short rise has changed the mood of this forum from bearish to bullish. Amazing how quick it happened.
Even there we have form, I don't know about you but I remember buying greenbacks at 49c US to the dollar, not even that long ago. With commodity prices kicking our biggest companies and best employers where it hurts I don't think it's impossible that we might see that, particularly if we cut rates while the US raises them. Even with completely sideways us price movement your talking about completely blowing the top off of the record australian price if we hit $0.65usd/$1aud. I don't think we're headed for $0.50 but it's not a crazy possibility giveth the RBA is actively aiming for $0.70 and I don't know about you but I think every dollar I own losing half it's value is worth protecting against.
