Gold Fireworks on the Horizon?

Discussion in 'Gold' started by finicky, Feb 11, 2018.

  1. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Many are jaded with sentiment like this but came across an article under this title that contained a striking chart. It also seems timely given last week's volatility in US stocks. The chart posits that Gold relative to the S&P500 stocks ($SPX) has been in an analogous trend to the period 1996 - 2002 with a 97% correlation. This correlation - if imagined to continue - predicts Gold to rapidly gain ground against the $SPX. So this could happen through just a crash in $SPX (and gold going nowhere), but again, if we continue the analogy to 1996 - 2002, in the period following 2002 it was Gold that really took off in USD terms.

    https://thefelderreport.com/2018/02/08/gold-fireworks-on-the-horizon/

    Black is current Gold:$SPX, Yellow is 1996 onward
    yiqVCa4X.png
     
  2. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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    Just another report seller using TA for a manipulated market. When will they ever learn?
     
  3. copperhead

    copperhead Active Member

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    Charts are fun but you can be sure regardless , Gold will go up and down .
    The more you are IN at a given purchase cause's the wonder if not desperation of a chart
    purchasing during your life time is income averaging and cause's less worry
    of Gold's circular value
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018
  4. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What is the motive for 99.9999% of the people, I doubt it is to die with more gold than one's neighbor?

    That graph show 5 year historical value and 2 year projection of prices

    If that is correct, the message for people holding gold to be on the watch to sell.... than wait to buy in when it drops.

    Inst the goal to buy an ounce for $1x, sell at $2x, than wait to buy 2 ounces for $x, doubling the weight of gold.

    Unless one is hoarding for nuclear holocaust, that is the a different strategy.
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A tweet by
    FBX258
    @fbx258

    Cup and handle on AUD Gold
    Monthly Chart
    Cup and Handle AUD GOLD MAR 2018.jpeg
     
  6. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    yes! yes! yes!!!
     
  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    After reading this bond fund guy's bio briefs, I thought his sentiment on Gold worth posting. Note he's no gold bug, bonds look to be his main field e.g mortgage backed securities, maths whiz, and he has described himself as "borderline autistic".
    There's a Youtube Vanity Fair interview uploaded Oct 2017 to get a feel for his wider views.

    Kitco News Wednesday April 11, 2018

    Famed investor Jeffrey Gundlach remains optimistic that it is only a matter of time before the gold prices break their chains, which could push prices close to $1,500 an ounce.

    The CEO of Doubleline, also known as the “bond king,” is once again attracting the attention of gold investors as he sees the yellow metal at a critical juncture.

    “We see a massive base building in gold. Massive. It’s a four-year, five-year base in gold. If we break above this resistance line, one can expect gold to go up by, like, a $1,000” he said during the 2018 Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference, according to recent recap from Steve Blumenthal, chief investment officer at CMG.

    His bullish comments have been highlighted at an opportune time as the gold market trades at the top of its well-established range, hitting a seven-week high. June gold futures last traded at $1,362.70 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day.

    In his presentation, Gundlach said that he recommends investors look at straddle trading strategies in the marketplace. “Because one way or the other this baby’s got to break in a big way,” he said.

    The most prominent factor behind Gundlach’s bullish gold outlook is a weaker U.S. dollar. In his presentation, he said that he sees the U.S. dollar continue to push lower in 2018.

    “When you get a lousy year in the dollar, like last year, it’s very typically followed up by another year that’s bad just after,” Gundlach said.
     
  8. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Aren’t most of them fixated by crypto pumpers and riding the next moonshot to the floor?
     
  9. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    By the time silver goes to the moon I will probably have an 'old member' myself.
     
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  10. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold will move up in May or June... when Trump and Un meet up to do the 'tango'...
     
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  11. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Oil will go up when Trump and Putin have rapport and gold will follow.
     
  12. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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  13. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    From the same article on Zero Hedge. World Official Gold Holdings.
    WORLD OFFICIAL GOLD HOLDINGS.JPG
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Back from a trip in his Delorean
    FBX258
    @fbx258

    Gold in AUD

    Db_iALhU8AAc4jl.jpeg
     
  15. Alee

    Alee New Member

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    Paper gold and silver have lost the last battle. Most of the gold bugs have withdrawn. Now concentrate on the war strategy!
     
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  16. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Eygyptian billionaire has put half his net worth into gold amid market warnings

    May 2 2018
    AFR

    Some big investors see warning signs ahead for markets but are holding their positions. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris is taking action: He's put half of his $US5.7 billion ($7.6 billion) net worth into gold.

    He said in an interview on Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $US1800 an ounce from just above $US1300 now, while "overvalued" sharemarkets crash.

    "In the end you have China and they will not stop consuming," Sawiris said at his office in Cairo overlooking the Nile. "And people also tend to go to gold during crises and we are full of crises right now. Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr Trump doesn't help."

    (Heading is hyperlinked for full article)
     
  17. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm......
    tumblr_inline_myocxuOS8B1rfepr2.gif

    He is a billionaire today because he love to 'share' his investment positions with others?
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Q1 2018 gold demand is down, lowest Q1 since 2008.

    https://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2018

    Now, Mar 19 saw the first of the big falls in the Dow and the DJI has been putting in lower highs since then without getting any lower than that 19th of March close, so the fall would probably have had no impact on the Q1 stats which makes the next Q2 release rather interesting.
     
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  19. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    Now would be a good time for gold price to follow u.s. dollar up instead of the usual inverse relationship. If u.s. dollar breaks higher, it may cause gold to break lower and extend our pain for a whole lot longer. Sideways.......is becoming the reality.
     
  20. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Maybe use the setback to buy a good Oz based gold miner's stock if they react.
     

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