Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?

Discussion in 'Gold' started by mybullion.com.au, Sep 17, 2024.

?

The tea leaves have spoken, the price of gold (currently $3825/oz $AUD) is:

Poll closed Sep 24, 2024.
  1. In bubble territory - a correction is imminent, but buying the dip is a good idea.

    1 vote(s)
    6.3%
  2. Overvalued - its time to start selling and continue doing so. Bear market on the horizon.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.

    3 vote(s)
    18.8%
  4. Undervalued - This is a great buying opportunity.

    5 vote(s)
    31.3%
  5. I dont drink tea.

    7 vote(s)
    43.8%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. mybullion.com.au

    mybullion.com.au Well-Known Member

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    Need to have a registered account, which I've been meaning to do, but if you don't want to then file attached below.
    Thx shiney, good read.
     

    Attached Files:

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  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold price is showing more resiliance than I was expecting. Like BTC the most likely outcome could be a period of consolidation near the support zone (ini orange).

    XAUUSD_2025-01-09_08-20-40.png
     
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  3. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I told you I'm interested in price discovery not pissing contests.

    Yes, when price falls and open interest declines that's considered bearish.

    Hence my surprise.
     
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  5. mybullion.com.au

    mybullion.com.au Well-Known Member

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    What's got my attention is AUD's precipitous decline, while gold continues to strengthen. Normally they're positively correlated.

    Great for gold owners, not so good for the cost of living in our country :confused:
     
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I think it's because of China's outlook. The AUD is a China proxy.
     
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  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    And as far as as the Open Interest/price goes, the overall trend during 2024 was for both to be rising up to the peak in Oct 2024, then the overall trend has been declining. On the shorter term there is going to be variability in the direction of both.

    Screenshot 2025-01-09 at 11.00.13 am.png
     
  8. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It might go a little sideways at times but the next decade will be bullish for sure.
    There's no way but up in this clown show and the trend is up.
     
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  9. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I heard Andy Schectman say tonight that 2024 was the third biggest gold buying year for central banks in the last 100 years.
    Led by Turkey, Poland and others that I can't recall.
     
  10. mybullion.com.au

    mybullion.com.au Well-Known Member

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    There it is folks, we have just broken through:
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Oh yeah baby. With Don the Con in office now things will continue to burn while gold continues it's climb.
    Not even Big Dons huge ego can stop whats coming.
     
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  13. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    If the USD can close below 109.085 on a down candle, then I'd be fairly convinced that the high has been made.

    Other factors are supporting this, but I'm waiting for a insititutional reversal to take place. Either way, given how strong gold has been even in the face of a higher dollar, I would imagine a lower dollar will spool the price A LOT higher. Possibly marking the start of the gold "Bitcoin run" ;)
     
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  14. mybullion.com.au

    mybullion.com.au Well-Known Member

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    Trying to stay level-headed, but I reckon this is a genuine possibility. Gold's climb in the face of strong US dollar has been remarkable. What happens if USD retreats?

    Obviously, the higher odds are on a gold price pullback that is long overdue (IMO)..... but you never know.

    What do your tea leaves say? :p
     
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  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The last 5 years has shown the dxy/gold correlation is mostly a fantasy as they are less and less correlated.
    The diversion is part of the unraveling now.
     
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  16. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    My tea leaves scream a bullish gold price, and a potentially unwinding DXY. They used to be a good measure of intermarket analysis between the two assets, but the fact that they've cracked correlation indicates a huge accumulation / distribution is underway. Remember: When generally symmetrical markets crack correlation, manipulation is occurring.

    Given positioning on other asset classes (i.e., bonds, crypto, foreign currencies, and most importantly OIL), I am fairly firm on a stagflation narrative moving forward.
     
  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I was just thinking that about a third of people in America are either govt employees or on welfare.
    What could go wrong with that.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2025 at 5:07 AM
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  18. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    In a decade or so these little consolidations will be blips on the screen.
    What looks like bearish pullbacks will only be part of a much bigger bull pattern.
     
  19. pmbug

    pmbug Well-Known Member

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  20. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    "China's actual imports of gold far exceed publicly data."

    I'm not knocking his English by any means but what is he saying there exactly?
    Our official numbers might not be accurate?
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2025 at 1:53 AM

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