Reason being very simple: Look, with so much political uncertainty in Europe, international conflict in Syria and North Korea; gold has NOT been able to break above US$1400. Not even US$1300! Come on. THAT is not a good sign. When the dust settles, gold price will collapse. Time to sell this weak ass.
I'm expecting Leon will cop some criticism, but I think it's always good to see an alternative view on this site that is mostly pro PMs.
Geez, he did come back !! .... and with basically the same crap !! .... and what of your 'shorts' Leon ? Lose any lunch money ?
If you lived in Australia, and also didn't keep disappearing for periods of time, I would make a 1oz silver bet with you it don't happen.
We sold our gold longs a week ago, a couple of days too early, but made money. We don't short anymore, as I believe we are too close to a big move up that will destroy shorts, and stop-loss and limit orders can not be placed on the local (Thailand) exchange. The reason, however, that we sold was the COMEX positioning (particularly in silver), which is the most visible mechanism of how the bad boys manipulate the market. Fortunately, the CFTC tells us every week what they have been doing recently, unlike the LBM. When the commercials have closed as many of their positions as they can from weak hands and momentum traders giving-up their longs and opening new shorts, then it will head-up again. We will probably get in too early and ride it down some, as I believe we are close to a big move up when one or more of the big commercial shorts will break and run, covering their positions within a single Tuesday afternoon to the following week's Friday afternoon ten day window they have to play before the world sees what they have been doing. It probably won't take long, but until then, sitting on cash. I will post a comment when we get back in.
^ Same. Just need a bit of a tree shake and I'll be back in. Hoping this geopolitical mess will settle down and take some heat out of the market. As well, on a personal note, it'd be nice if we could avoid a major outbreak of war....
French elections round 1 is taking some heat out of the geopolitical risk for gold. Just need the whole North Korea and Syria thing to settle down for a week or two and gold will go back to looking at monetary policy fundamentals (which are still good for gold IMHO). That's the next buy in level for me. Anyone want to help guess where that might be. Maybe $1260 USD? Important level but maybe still too high. I don't think it'll drop to $1200 so maybe somewhere in between.
Silver and gold moved in lockstep for over 4 years, both in price and COMEX positioning of the main players, but have diverged a bit lately (last 3 months). The COMEX positioning of silver at the beginning of this price drop was significantly more extreme than that of gold. The prices will drop until the weak hands and momentum traders on the COMEX have been relieved of as many of their longs, and suckered into going short on as many contracts as possible. After four years of getting used and abused by the commercial traders, the rest are starting to understand, and each cycle sees fewer and fewer contracts change sides. In gold, which is what I watch closely, it used to be about 150,000 contracts, and could take months. Now that the bad boys know they are being watched, they move faster to try to try to keep significant moves, or at least the turning points and a significant part of the move, withing the ten day blind spot we have in COT reporting (Tuesday afternoon data cut-off and report out Friday). That makes it harder for people like me, but it can still be traded. Also, there has been a steadily growing component of the long side that just holds, and doesn't play this game. The commercials are now happy to get 30,000 to 50,000 contract swings out of the remaining suckers. That fact, and what we hear about higher and higher floors under the market prices being formed by large orders waiting to buy physical on the dips, has taken all the fun out of shorting and we don't do it anymore. So, getting to your question, I would (sort of wild) guess low $1200's, $1215 - $1220. The bad boys won't take it below the floor formed by large physical orders because they don't want to be making large deliveries. However, they have to take it to about $1230 for the current smash to be significantly profitable, so we will be getting back in at about that price, but I will hedge with the comment that our plans are subject to change with each weekly COT report, missile launch, and Donald Tweet, but mostly on the COT. I was quite pleased to see the drop at the market open today. We sold our longs a bit too early, about $1260, so really need $1230 or lower to feel good about things again, not that the market cares about that
Yo BuggedOut! I don't normally do much predicting, but given several factors, including today's dump, contract/options expiration, the fleet reaching Korea, and the three 630 CC-6% beers I just had, I would take a wild guess that end of the week will be the time to get back in. I expect the bad boys to do some serious dirty-work during NY daytime trading Monday and Tuesday to get it into this week's CFTC report, which will somewhat be offset by previous days' action, and then to do some more Wed and Thu, not sure about Friday, which will disappear as they start selling into rising prices Friday?????(not sure), Mon and Tue. Give me a report card next Monday?? Or maybe better, when the price is rising in the rear-view mirror.
Sounds reasonable. One of my favorite timing points is about an hour from close on Friday afternoon and this setup might correlate nicely for that time. (NOTE - I am in Australia so this is before the US market opens Friday) I was surprised the Aussie gold stocks (my instrument of choice) didn't dump heavier today, but they can sometimes be a bit more resilient than one would expect. I have also found they sometimes seem to front-run the actual spot price inflection points.
I have seen co I have seen composites of daily price graphs for a month, and the low is normally early afternoon NY time. Unfortunately, I am in Thailand and we can't trade past 10:30 PM, some 3 hours before the likely low. When we buy, we normally stay-up until 10 PM or so to buy, and normally sell mid-morning to noon. How late a night can you trade?
I'm currently only trading on the ASX, so 4pm Australian Eastern Time If I ever get serious about this stuff I'll get overseas trading accounts, but I'm still learning. I just find that 30-60 mins before close on Friday afternoon is often where the profit taking kicks in if there's been a decent move over the week.
I picked up a small parcel of NST on Friday afternoon Looks to me like spot has been bouncing off the $1260 USD level the last few days, which makes sense because this level was strong resistance on the way up so I'd expect it to now have some decent support at that level. I'm expecting that geopolitics will be the main determinant next week as to whether the level holds. NK attempted another failed missile test but the marked didn't flinch much at that.
We are still in cash. The CFTC report for the period ending the 25th showed the silver smash in process, and prices show that it has continued to the present. The swing of 15,000 contracts as of Tuesday afternoon by the hedge funds, but of only 10,000 by the commercials is not encouraging. And the volumes are not high despite having taken out the 200 day average, would lead me to believe that this is a long way from finished. Remember that the initial positions were at all time extremes, so these changes are small in the big picture. Curiously, it showed no significant manipulation in the decline of gold from $1295 down to $1265, which decline appears to have been based only on reduced geopolitical tension. Based on prices since the Tuesday afternoon cut-off, I would say that any possible impending gold smash has not started yet. That said, with the price hovering just above the tightly packed 200, 100 and 50 day moving averages, which are used as trigger points for many momentum traders and algos, it is a perfect set-up for a smash, and I will be surprised if they don't do it before the ravaging of silver is completed. The COMEX gold positioning of the commercials/hedge funds might only be two-thirds as extreme as last year's peak, but it is equal to or greater than all the peaks that preceded smashes in 2013, 2014, and 2015. I will let you know when we decide to get back in.
