What do Panda fanatics think about the future of pandas? Seeing the increase in mintage, is this inconsequential or is 2011 the last worthy investment? Thanx for your thoughts
Q> Future of Pandas? A> I think the future is pretty bright, and we are still in the infancy of the Panda rise. Here's an interesting article on "How high will the Chinese coin market go?" by Badon. I tend to agree with his sentiments that: "..I estimate that the entire Chinese coin market is only valued at around $100 million right now. China is a much larger country than the USA, and it will soon have much more money than the USA too, but I'll be conservative. Let's guess that China's coin market will almost match America's within the next 10 to 30 years, and become valued at $10 billion. For that to happen, coin values would have to increase an average of 100 times, or 10,000%..." "...We're nowhere near a bubble. In fact, this market is just barely getting started..." http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=2508.0 Q> Seeing the increase in mintage, is this inconsequential or is 2011 the last worthy investment? A> I see the increase in mintage as a reflection of demand. The increase to 6million units is still very very small. When you look at the following overall stats for 1oz silver pandas, the mintage for Pandas is still very very low compared against even Kookaburras. We know for a fact, that Panda supply in China is 3 times tighter than the Kook supply in Australia. So supply is low. 6,000,000 1oz Pandas for a population of 1,300,000,000 people. So only 1oz Panda per 217 people. 300,000 1oz Kooks for a population of 22,000,000. So 1oz Kook per 73 people. Thanks for your interest in Pandas.
In relation to 1 oz silver BU coins, the increase in mintages certainly takes some of the gloss off the scarcity of coins compared to demand. Therefore, as far as an investment goes, there is less attraction in my mind. However, 3 million coins in huge demand (especially in Asia) by a population numbering in the 100's of millions (that's potential buyers not just numbers of people) still spells a shortage in demand. It's an old comparison but a useful one to compare the 3 million 2011 Pandas to the 30 odd million ASE's produced - there are ten times as many ASE's available for every panda minted. Now, (looking into my crystal ball), if I was getting into pandas for the first time, I would take these steps while more recent mintages are still relatively cheap, not in any particular order: 1. Buy 2011 because they will appreciate faster than other bullion coins (even those fugly cats). 2. Buy earlier mintage Pandas eg 2010, 2009, 2008 etc now, because their prices will climb faster compared to 2011 coins and beyond. 3. Buy commemorative 2011 Pandas and future commemoratives as their mintage numbers are far less. But it's probably too late if you want to get in at ground level as these 1 oz silver coins are already in the $100 - $200 mark. I don't know the issue price of 1 oz silver commemoratives so don't know how much they've appreciated. 4. Subscribe to Peter Anthony's "Pricepedia" IMO, the increase in mintages will not affect the appreciation of gold Pandas in any way. And fractional gold pandas may indeed offer a better investment potential if you can afford them, but silver will always get multiple prices over spot compared to gold. Just out of interest, if you want to buy a 1kg gold proof panda, expect to pay about $70000! That's just a bit more than spot price, I think. A 2011 1 oz silver panda looks more attractive as a potential investment than a 2011 kookaburra. That's the bottom line. And in a worst case scenario, you'll still get spot plus %.
Most of the perth mint product is geared to the American/European market though, so comparing to Australian population isn't exactly fair. Similarly, a huge amount of the increased demand for Pandas would have been from outside China, prompting a mintage increase. The internet has levelled the playing field in terms of strictly minting for a domestic market.
Hey guys, For me, the allure of the 2011's did fade pretty fast when I saw how huge the mintage increases were. I have no real interest in them unless the prices are really good. I think the future is very bright, particularly if you can get heavy on the older coins.
2011 panda are considered good buy now because its price has came down quite a bit since its launch. I would tip the 2011 rabbit to be a close rival in the years to come.
Thanks mate, PM lunars are the only coin to rival the interest in pandas (in my beady little eyes). Will watch with interest to see how we go. It'll come down to market demand in the end.
I don't necessarily feel as though I must stack 2011 coins. So I suppose we're a bit different in that sense. Do you feel it's logical because they're cheaper? Before the mintage increase, I would've said 2010 pandas but now, I feel as though the best "bang for buck" is to stick with 2008's. I guess I just feel as though the "premium" is quite obviously justified and fairly insignificant compared to where the price is really headed? I'm no expert, it's just my gut feel. I'm a big gold fan too. Heavier on gold than silver personally.
Agreed, just because the mintages for 2011 has increased doesnt mean that the previous years are a rip off. If anything, it makes the previous even greater value ; ) I would be looking to buying older panda's, even if the premiums are higher, it will be worth it in the long run....they gonna fly like a G6, heheh shhh, dont tell anyone until i unload my ASE and maples first, ; ) Lunars are great, but i have my money on the panda any day of the week!
It is really fantastic to read the different views from everyone on this topic. Like Deng XiaoPing once said along these lines "it doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches the mouse." I really like what Mmm....shiney and theHuckler have said, even though they are polar opposites - because I think they are both right. Mmm....shiney's approach is the approach that I first started out with, and have profited much from. I got my first tray of 30x 1oz 2010 Pandas back midyear 2010, for about $30/oz. They had the highest mintage in their history that year of about 800,000 which people feared would be oversupplied... and fortunately they were wrong, and the 2010s are still supply capped with growing demand, and pushing the prices higher. Today a 2010 can reasonably go for $55-$60. Which is a fabulous return, and sells much more easily than my ASEs/Maples/Kooks/PM Bars/SC Bars/etc. In the same way, I'm keeping a lot of 2011s, because I do expect them to appreciate at least 10-20% over the next 12months, and especially so when 2012 pandas are released. theHuckler's approach is also really good, and is something I'm starting to move into, which is targeting the rarest and oldest coins for the lowest possible cost (e.g. the 2008s - which in my opinion are undervalued). Obviously as demand for Pandas and bullion grows, this will place upward demand for many of these rarer and older coins. Some will increase in value faster than others, but I do expect an across the board increase in all Pandas. I'm sure both strategies work; but which one catches the most mice? I suppose time will tell I'm going with both cats/strategies ... Jim Rogers comments on the shortage of silver pandas - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOebn1qqj2I
Actually I was doing a bit of research and noted that 2008's seemed underpriced as well. Nice to see that confirmed....not that I have any!
The other point we've left out of the discussion is that my investment strategy would leave me with significantly less ounces, for the same money than mmm....shiney! We all know that silver should / could / will / might / Fed / Zeitgeist / Bernanke go parabolic and perhaps the stacks will look very different if (when) that happens. A mix of both is the way to go. I buy 10oz bars to lower my average $/oz price and gold to decrease my exposure.
