Federal Election - some things to know or preferred not to know.

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by mrsilverservice, Mar 20, 2019.

  1. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sadly, I hear Swannie is on the Bull Bus providing advice to Bill....now that's just as scary.
     
  2. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    I hope Abbott wins just to witness first hand the Twitter meltdown.
     
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  3. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Add in a few each for Clive and Pauline and it's be night to remember for the left. :D
     
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  4. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Quite possibly the closest Australia will come to witnessing it's own DJT moment.
     
  5. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Now that would be nice. Whilst both the LNP and Labor are as reprehensible as each other...and one of the two will gain sufficient seats in the lower house (one way or another) to form govt in May.


    Thus the only way to keep the "bastards honest" (thanks Don Chip) is to load the Senate with conservative / nationalistic minor parties to hopefully block any and all crap legislation either side tries to pass. The below is a list of the nationalistic / conservative minor party I can locate running for the Senate this coming election (be them good, bad or loony fringe). Not all running in all states.

    Australian Christians
    Australian Conservatives
    Christian Democratic (File Nile & Co)
    Citizens Electoral Council
    Fraers Anning's Conservative National Party
    Jacqui Lambie Network (inc here but crosses both sides of politics)
    Katter's Australian Party
    Liberal Democrates
    Love Australia or Leave
    One Nation
    Rise Up Australia
    Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
    Small Business Party
    United Australia Party (Clive Palmer)
    Yellow Vest Australia
     
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  6. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Active Member

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    The Liberal/Nationals have done a preference deal with the Born Again politician Clive Palmer :D

    The 50 million $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ that Clive Palmer has spent looks like buying his way back into the heart of the nation o_O

    I reckon Silly Billy Boy Shorten will be retiring in about 4 weeks :)
     
  7. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    LNP has come in from 4.75 to 3.75 in the last week (Sportsbet odd).....A general dislike and mistrust of Bill by many voters and decent pref flow from some minor parties may seek SloMo safe...just.

    The ALP need to get near enough, close enough 40%+ plus of the primary vote to secure a majority gov, so how the Green prefs flow is Bill's big issue and Adani ain't helping him with that one. ALP got 34.7% of primary vote in 2016 and it ain't much better now. Refer below. Two party pref vote is based on assumptions, which can bite ya on the bum.

    The survey post the debate will be interesting.

    primary.png
     
  8. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sportsbet has ALP at 1.33 (has slipped out a bit) and LNP at 3.30, coming in from 3.75 last week.

    Latest polling shows LNP primary vote firming, ALP firming slightly but hasn't regained the level of support from pre April, Green vote has softened, OneNation improving and Others losing ground. Two Party preferred remains same.

    polling.jpg
     
  9. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sportsbet has ALP at 1.25 (come in from 1.35) and LNP at 3.85, pushing out from 3.35 last week.

    Latest polling shows LNP primary vote slightly down from as a week ago.
    ALP dropped a few points back to their 2016 election level. Some of that vote appears to have gone to the Greens who are up a few points on a week ago.

    OneNation seems to be firming and others remain unchanged.

    Further down below I've added in the 2016 First Preference votes for those parties who will play a major role in this election re preferences and below that where those preferences went.

    The big question is where will OneNation and Clive votes go. in 2016 OneNation got 175k (1.2%) of the vote and Clive got effectively zero. With Clive spending up big and appearing to draw votes in QLD / other according to the press and the OneNation first pref now 5-7% of the vote, I'm not sure the likes of Antony Green and others can accurately predict the two party outcome as per below. Whilst OneNation and Clive votes were effectively a 50/50 split to LNP and ALP in 2016, the pref deals down with Nats and Libs could pull more the LNP way. The ALP not committing to Adani may well drive QLD votes to Clive / OneNation and in turn the LNP.

    I'm no polling expert but a rough look at the primary votes and sentiment in the electorate makes me think the LNP have a better chance and the ALP's 34/35% primary vote not enough to win outright when looking at past data.

    I think I will take that 3.85 that SportsBet are offering.



    polling 7 May.jpg

    polling 7 May comp primary votes.jpg

    2016 pref flow.jpg
     
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  10. Mintaka

    Mintaka Active Member

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    I detest preferential voting. I hope to live long enough to see first past the post. Let every seat be a #MelbourneCup
     
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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ first past the post = minority rule
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2019
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  12. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not necessarily. Both the UK and US (in all but one or two states I think) have first past the post voting.

    Labor would never support "first past the post" voting as it would be highly damaging to their numbers in the lower house given their primary vote is lower than the LNP and they require Green and other preferences to get some candidates elected.

    In the 2016 Federal Election:
    • only 48 of the 150 seats were won on first preference / primary vote which equates to "first past the post". These were split 32 LNP and 16 ALP.
    • If the remaining 102 seats were won by the candidate that polled the most primary votes, then the LNP would have won another 16 seats in the lower house, the Greens one additional seat and Team Xenophon one extra...thus the ALP would have dropped 17 seats and have a total today of 54 seats in the lower house based on lower house numbers today.
    • The LNP would not have lost any seats on "first past the post" neither would have any other party / independent won a seat.
     
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    In both cases a minority elected the government.

    Then the remaining 102 seats would have sitting members that do not represent the majority of voters in their electorate ie minority rule. In the case of the 17 seats won by Labor, more voters in those electorates have a preference for Labor to govern than can they agree on any other single candidate.

    Voting is a market good. We are consumers of the political process. It’s a shit meal mind you that we consume but nonetheless we are consumers in a political market. Having only one choice about who you would prefer to govern which is what first-past-the-post is, is like going into a bakery, asking for a bacon and cheese pie, being told there are none, bad luck, you cannot make another choice, you go hungry. The more choice we have the more opportunity we have to satisfy our needs and desires. :)
     
  14. Silverling

    Silverling Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Anthony Green has called it, LNP to form government: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/has-antony-green-called-the-election-yet/11095794

    You can not ignore the self funded retirees, Labor lost because of their arrogant take it or leave it attitude. Looks like they left it hey? You just can't [email protected] on people who have saved all their lives. Lesson learned is do not piss off the retirees, give them some respect.
     
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  15. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep, the ALP hacks said on Sky earlier tonight that the older ALP voters 65+ left the ALP tent cos of the impact on self funded retirees.
     
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  16. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Active Member

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  17. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Active Member

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    So you got slapped right in the face,how does it feel :D

    It feels pretty good from were I am sitting :) I guess you were wrong :( who would have guessed,well me so it seems :D

    You had this coming,long overdue some might say :)

    The "Court Jester" became The Joke :D
     
  18. Stoic Phoenix

    Stoic Phoenix Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Didnt you have a little tanty a couple of weeks ago and vowed never to return....twice?
     
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  19. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  20. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Active Member

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    I am so so sorry that I didn't ask your permission to speak :rolleyes:

    I couldn't not resist
    the golden opportunity to remind "court jester" :D that his "foolish predictions" based in greed and self centeredness came back to bite him in the arse :) 600,000 tax payer subsudised electric cars :confused: I guess he will have to walk now :)

    So poor little "court jester" cannot defend himself and needs you to defend him,how sweet :) give us a kiss :D

    I am "truly truly" sorry to all of the deceived young lonely single male lefty global warming cry babies,I will consider your "feelings" next time :rolleyes: yeh right :D

    We have a Liberal Scott Morrison led government for the next 3 years
    :D sweet :)
     

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