Fed rate expectations

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, May 29, 2024.

  1. IPDA

    IPDA Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2023
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    32
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Looking for a high to form on Dxy at 105.425. If we are in a bearish order flow this level should be respected.
     
    Michael Kay likes this.
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,793
    Likes Received:
    4,527
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The "doing" bit I can understand, it's the "expecting" bit that the market has had wrong all year.

    The Fed's actions are not about interest rates, they're about trying to influence the bond market and push bond sales onto the private sector instead of relying on the public sector.

    Edit to add: makes sense if you're trying to withdraw liquidity. :confused:
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2024
  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,793
    Likes Received:
    4,527
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So what does that mean in layman's terms? It hit 105.5 briefly.

    I'm neither bearish nor bullish on the USD going forward so just wondering what the outlook is for those who've chosen to not sit on the fence next to me?
     
  4. IPDA

    IPDA Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2023
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    32
    Trophy Points:
    18
    If yields are in fact poised to lower (i.e., the bond market to increase) this would mean the US dollar should lower. Again I’m not 100% on my bias at the moment, but right now I’m leaning more toward a bearish USD, bullish foreign currency, and possibly range bound commodities with some exceptions.
     
  5. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    Messages:
    3,667
    Likes Received:
    3,557
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Colorado USA
    Brandon won't let the economy falter.
    He learned alot of adversity all his years as a truck driver and lumberjack.
    Not to mention his Special Forces training in Nam.
    He's one smart cooter I say and the most perfect for the job next to Emperor Newsome.
     
    Real $ Return likes this.
  6. Real $ Return

    Real $ Return Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2023
    Messages:
    270
    Likes Received:
    302
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Joey B is all bout change...he has the uncanny ability to transform matter from food, ice cream in particular ;)to deposits in he's trousers :p Lets go Brandon-4 More Years! :D
     
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,793
    Likes Received:
    4,527
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ok, so you've pivoted from your previous position that the USD will go higher?
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,793
    Likes Received:
    4,527
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The funds rate is beyond his control though, which is what this thread is about. That being said, The Fed and the Executive will attempt to coordinate policy responses so that they're working toward the same outcome.
     
    Real $ Return likes this.
  9. IPDA

    IPDA Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2023
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    32
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Correct, after taking a second look I'm a little more on the bear side.
     
    mmm....shiney! likes this.
  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,793
    Likes Received:
    4,527
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That makes sense if you also don't think commodity prices will rise
     
  11. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Messages:
    8,054
    Likes Received:
    6,875
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Sydney
    The Brits held steady despite improving situation stating it was not appropriate to drop interest rates before an election.
    So much for independence. Left wing deep state!
     
    Real $ Return likes this.
  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    Messages:
    3,667
    Likes Received:
    3,557
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Colorado USA
    The Fed funds rate might be beyond his control but he can always bring up climate change, trans rights, abortion debates, corporate greed shrinkflation or gun bans.
    Easy to keep the sheeple distracted for an ice cream break so they can change the formulas.
     
    Real $ Return likes this.
  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    Messages:
    3,667
    Likes Received:
    3,557
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Colorado USA
    I've heard from extended family in the UK that prices are out of control there. They are talking about rate cuts??
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,793
    Likes Received:
    4,527
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That's all to do with legislation and it requires Congressional approval and support from the electorate. So if that's what the people want, that's what the people get.
     
    JohnnyBravo300 likes this.
  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    Messages:
    3,667
    Likes Received:
    3,557
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Colorado USA
    Congress is still a thing?
     
    mmm....shiney! likes this.
  16. pmbug

    pmbug Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    210
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Texas
    Everything the executive is doing is inflationary. They are not helping The Fed at all right now.
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    18,793
    Likes Received:
    4,527
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Inflation seems to have stabilised though.
     
  18. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2019
    Messages:
    3,667
    Likes Received:
    3,557
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Colorado USA
    The executive branch makes the Fed more powerful by the day.
    They are loving it.
     
  19. pmbug

    pmbug Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    210
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Texas
    We shall see. There is a lag between action (like student loan "forgiveness" (ie. taxpayer bailout)) and inflationary effect (increased fiscal debt stress).
     

Share This Page