Fed rate expectations

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, May 29, 2024.

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  1. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    Looking for a high to form on Dxy at 105.425. If we are in a bearish order flow this level should be respected.
     
    IPDA, Jun 20, 2024
    #21
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  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The "doing" bit I can understand, it's the "expecting" bit that the market has had wrong all year.

    The Fed's actions are not about interest rates, they're about trying to influence the bond market and push bond sales onto the private sector instead of relying on the public sector.

    Edit to add: makes sense if you're trying to withdraw liquidity. :confused:
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2024
    mmm....shiney!, Jun 20, 2024
    #22
  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    So what does that mean in layman's terms? It hit 105.5 briefly.

    I'm neither bearish nor bullish on the USD going forward so just wondering what the outlook is for those who've chosen to not sit on the fence next to me?
     
    mmm....shiney!, Jun 20, 2024
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  4. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    If yields are in fact poised to lower (i.e., the bond market to increase) this would mean the US dollar should lower. Again I’m not 100% on my bias at the moment, but right now I’m leaning more toward a bearish USD, bullish foreign currency, and possibly range bound commodities with some exceptions.
     
    IPDA, Jun 20, 2024
    #24
  5. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Brandon won't let the economy falter.
    He learned alot of adversity all his years as a truck driver and lumberjack.
    Not to mention his Special Forces training in Nam.
    He's one smart cooter I say and the most perfect for the job next to Emperor Newsome.
     
    JohnnyBravo300, Jun 20, 2024
    #25
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  6. Real $ Return

    Real $ Return Well-Known Member

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    Joey B is all bout change...he has the uncanny ability to transform matter from food, ice cream in particular ;)to deposits in he's trousers :p Lets go Brandon-4 More Years! :D
     
    Real $ Return, Jun 20, 2024
    #26
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Ok, so you've pivoted from your previous position that the USD will go higher?
     
    mmm....shiney!, Jun 21, 2024
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The funds rate is beyond his control though, which is what this thread is about. That being said, The Fed and the Executive will attempt to coordinate policy responses so that they're working toward the same outcome.
     
    mmm....shiney!, Jun 21, 2024
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  9. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    Correct, after taking a second look I'm a little more on the bear side.
     
    IPDA, Jun 21, 2024
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  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That makes sense if you also don't think commodity prices will rise
     
    mmm....shiney!, Jun 21, 2024
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  11. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The Brits held steady despite improving situation stating it was not appropriate to drop interest rates before an election.
    So much for independence. Left wing deep state!
     
    sammysilver, Jun 21, 2024
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  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The Fed funds rate might be beyond his control but he can always bring up climate change, trans rights, abortion debates, corporate greed shrinkflation or gun bans.
    Easy to keep the sheeple distracted for an ice cream break so they can change the formulas.
     
    JohnnyBravo300, Jun 21, 2024
    #32
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  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've heard from extended family in the UK that prices are out of control there. They are talking about rate cuts??
     
    JohnnyBravo300, Jun 21, 2024
    #33
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That's all to do with legislation and it requires Congressional approval and support from the electorate. So if that's what the people want, that's what the people get.
     
    mmm....shiney!, Jun 21, 2024
    #34
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  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Congress is still a thing?
     
    JohnnyBravo300, Jun 22, 2024
    #35
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  16. pmbug

    pmbug Well-Known Member

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    Everything the executive is doing is inflationary. They are not helping The Fed at all right now.
     
    pmbug, Jun 22, 2024
    #36
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Inflation seems to have stabilised though.
     
    mmm....shiney!, Jun 23, 2024
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  18. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The executive branch makes the Fed more powerful by the day.
    They are loving it.
     
    JohnnyBravo300, Jun 23, 2024
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  19. pmbug

    pmbug Well-Known Member

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    We shall see. There is a lag between action (like student loan "forgiveness" (ie. taxpayer bailout)) and inflationary effect (increased fiscal debt stress).
     
    pmbug, Jun 23, 2024
    #39
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Four months on and US inflation is still declining but there are some analysts (Druckenmiller?? et al) alerting investors to a possible resurgence in inflationary pressure at the back end of 2025 due to the noise coming from the Presidential nominees that they are both intent on expanding fiscal policy into a generally buoyant economy.

    That's not sound from an economic perspective certainly. Though Trump's tariff policy would weigh heavily on the consumers and may dampen some of that pressure I'm still expecting asset inflation to surge thanks mainly to his tax policy. I'm not as up-to-date with Harris' policies, but I would expect that raising corporate tax rates would lower asset inflation, I'm not sure what her policies around consumers is so can't comment on that.

    Screenshot 2024-10-27 at 8.24.45 am.png

    Source: Trading Economics
     
    mmm....shiney!, Oct 26, 2024
    #40
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