Fed rate expectations

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, May 29, 2024.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Anyone else bored shitless with the ongoing speculation from month-month?

    https://www.tradingview.com/news/re...and-stocks-wilt-as-rate-cut-doubts-resurface/

    and:

    https://www.tradingview.com/news/re...s-traders-hunker-down-for-us-inflation-print/
     
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  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    They'll cut rates, they'll cut rates not.

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Real $ Return

    Real $ Return Well-Known Member

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    Gotta love the endless line of "experts" and "economists" lined up with different opinions and specialised speculation :eek: 90% of it being wrong and still keeping their overpaid jobs
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    :eek:
    Like our politicians. :(
     
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  5. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    don’t forget their free perks! free travels, free meals, free accommodations…and, ontop of that, GET PAID!

    No wonder Joe Hockey kept going back for more…thank god he didn’t get that US gig….he would’ve used his ‘daily meals’ on Cuban cigars!
     
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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The old daily meal allowance "scam". Lol.

    Travel away from home, get an allowance from your employer to cover all meals dining out, live on 2-minute noodles and instant coffee you prepare yourself in the motel unit, pocket the rest thank you very much.
     
  7. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Line up all economists in the world, head to tail, and they still could not reach a conclusion!
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2024
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  8. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    Only way you would ever know is if you can understand institutional order flow and their large money positioning. Rates will remain the same or go higher. There will likely not be a rate cut, which I know is against the traditional general public thinking.
     
  9. Real $ Return

    Real $ Return Well-Known Member

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    Blasphemy good sir ;) i think last year all our oustanding pillars of society politicians got a big raise...even the back benchers chewing gum and giggling at the petulant children squealing like pigs "Mr speaker" and so they should,everyday their selfless decisons benefit all of us contributing to a better brighter world :D Australia "the lucky country" and in no way degrading to our former prison colony standard...AND were all getting $300...Almost a mth of electricity! :eek: truly we are blessed
     
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  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    All true my friend, but what amazes me most is that the "market" ie journos, insiders, experts, whatever haven't yet worked out that the only thing that matters is that nothing is going to change. Until it does.

    So what happens in the meantime, whether it's across a month, 6 month or a year is largely irrelevant until it's not irrelevant.

    In the meantime, stories will get published and markets will run or they won't.
     
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  11. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Well-Known Member

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    90% wrong exactly. Higher for longer has been playing out, but according to almost every MSM "expert", rates would be cut by at least June 2024. We are constantly gas-lit with this crap.

    The same applies to pretty much anyone in the MSM: car reviewers (or reviews of most things) and then we have "investment influencers". Over-paid talking heads of corporations and gov't or other vested interests.

    There is this YT channel and he is kinda entertaining and despite mentioning serious issues in his titles, always ends all nice and positive. It's pretty simple economic stuff. But one thing he does say in his videos which I like is this: "No one really knows where the economy will go, and least of all economists." Touche
    https://www.youtube.com/@EconomicsExplained
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2024
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  12. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of gaslighting...
     
  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    85% of sheeple believe everything they are told. That's why most will lose and we will win.
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I know, most people still believe the world is a sphere.
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I think she sums it pretty well, much of what is presented in the media is either based on a misunderstanding of economic principles or a deliberate ploy intended to deceive. I'm in the first camp ie common misunderstandings.

    However that doesn't mean that policies pursued by politicians are not deliberate, it just means that the theoretical basis for their decisions is faulty. Just look at the Federal Treasurer's attempts to justify balancing a budget by way of example.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2024
  16. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    I've actually changed my mind on the next rate decision, I actually think they might cut come the next meeting. Positioning of the 5yr, 10yr, and 30yr yields is telling me movement should be poised for lower rates.
     
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  17. precious roar

    precious roar Active Member

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    There is also the political expediency of a rate cut next meeting.
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Yields don't drive monetary policy and Powell will not do a Burns.

    No rate cut.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2024
  19. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Well-Known Member

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    You sound like every "expert" over the last 12 months.
     
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  20. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    But they can provide anticipatory insights into what large money is doing and expecting. IMO these three yields are showing at least the want to rebalance inefficiencies and liquidity. Might or might not, but right now that is my bias going into looking at Forex.
     
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