Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by House, May 11, 2013.

  1. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    That's the other side of the story, couple days ago some sold near $20. They could have sold at $23 (today) since. That's 15% more. The percents come quicker with the dollars when price is lower.
    Two errors.
    Paying too much.
    Selling too low.
    It's not liquid silver, only alot making bad decisions and others taking advantage of it. My average is according to spot $32 so I'm bad decision maker too. All that is left for me is trying to not repeat it. 2011=900 euro/kilo>2012=800 euro/kilo and 2013=700 euro per kilo max. Without general price inflation, every uptrend is bound to end in profitgrabs that bring back what was and even lower.
     
  2. House

    House Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Now the author of the original article (Hilsenrath) has had a change of mind;

    ZH
     
  3. lanceW

    lanceW New Member

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    The stimulus was supposed to revive America's economy and put people back to work. After the release of a dismal jobs report in August 2012, the Federal Reserve said that it would consider further efforts to jump-start the country's economic recovery. The plans for that economic stimulus effort were made public. However, not all economists will agree that the stimulus law didn't work. Learn more here: Plans for more economic stimulus.
     
  4. Clawhammer

    Clawhammer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Fed maps exit from stimulus...

    [​IMG]
     
  5. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    They're the ones who created all this mess.....Now its time THEY fixed it all up .....Unless they really don't want it to work or recover in the first place which it seems is exactly what they're aiming for....
    Its called 'HARVESTING".....They reap what the sow.. And eventually 'THEY' will own everything!
     
  6. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    If according to Peter Schiff, the economy is "on drugs". I reckon it must be heavily addicted to the easing-drug.

    Now: what happens if you take the drug away from a heavy drug addict?

    I'm scared to imagine!
     
  7. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    That is why September 2013 is such an important date for the entire histroy of the U.S.
     
  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ...and for Europe as well! German elections coming up on September 22nd.
     
  9. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    How deceptive is that? People who "leave the workforce" (lose their jobs) and can't find any other work are no longer regarded as unemployed for the purposes of the "unemployment figures".
     
  10. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    OMG how the bloody hell does that work.....Out of control man!
     
  11. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Things aren't like media/pm dealers/Fed touts.
    Reality is that the Fed drastically increased the required reserves as to DISencourage them from lending out.
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/RESBALREQ.txt
    1984-06-01 19437
    ...
    1990-06-01 33097
    ...
    2000-06-01 5493
    ...
    2008-01-01 7017
    2008-02-01 6729
    2008-03-01 7241
    2008-04-01 8014
    2008-05-01 9007
    2008-06-01 7924
    2008-07-01 8597
    2008-08-01 8579
    2008-09-01 8032
    2008-10-01 10861
    2008-11-01 12268
    2008-12-01 16312
    ...
    2009-06-01 22575
    2010-06-01 23839
    2011-06-01 33620
    2012-06-01 50121
    2013-06-01 63668

    It's now 2 times the one of the eighties.
    These figures are adjusted for all changes in methods throughout the decades, so directly comparable.

    So how are the Feds actions 'Stimulus'?
    If you take the whole of the balances into account, there is no net change left (ie no extraordinary one, just the continuation of the past decade trend).
    All there is, is an internal shift.
    The Fed pays its target interest rate on excess reserves in order to achieve that target interest rate. Banks are then neutral between keeping or lending the excess reserves at that interest rate.
    This means that excess reserves are Treasury substitutions. The intrest on such Treasury will be the same as the interbank interest rate. Excess reserves and Treasuries are thus highly equivalent.
    Quantitative Easing is a clear example of this: the Fed buys Treasuries on a large scale, bringing into existence excess reserves on which the Fed pays intrest. The Fed thus effectively sets the interest rate on very short term Treasuries, and if the Fed wants, it can do the same on the longterm Treasuries, simply by buying up every Treasury that the public wants to sell at this interest rate.
    This doesn't change the monetary system since sterilisation (open market operations) and interest payments on excess reserves have equivalent properties.
    So the pace at which sterilisation of dollars occurs, is the same as the pace at which new dollars are created. At some point the Fed can decide to destroy these excess reserves, and return to purely open market operations-based sterilisation, alike ahead of the crisis.
    Why we didn't see the expected general price increasings that the dollar creation suggested.
    All we saw (and still see) were (are) some temporary stories on heavy-speculated upon markets.
    A series of shorter and longer term cycles, every one of them sterilizing some billions from former bank deposit holders. The key towards not being hit is to not let them encourage you after they frontrunned in, and to not let them discourage you after they frontrunned out.
    Not easy, but there is quite some data available at no cost except for the time you have to put into finding and collecting it.
     
  12. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well worth a look:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...ions-insane-people-dont-realize-theyre-insane
     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/04/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE9A30SU20131104

    Comments made by Governor Jerome Powell, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

    If we have a look at the Fed Dove-Hawk scale, then these sentiments come as no surprise. I don't know where Powell fits in as I can't seem to find who he replaced, also "Betsy" Duke is resigning and Sarah Bloom is to go to Treasury as it's Number 2. They will be replaced by Obama nominations. Of course Yellen will go to the Fed Chair and all of that points to what we've known forever - any talk of tapering QE is just that - talk. I haven't checked if there are any changes to the Presidents of the other Banks.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. jparrie

    jparrie Member

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    Friday's non-farm payroll numbers for October were better than expected, far better. Whether you believe them or not is irrelevant. Gold stumbled and Bonds took a dive, so someone obviously thinks the chances of tapering being wound back is very real.
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...nds-feds-stimulus-program-20131115-2xkem.html
     

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