Euro zone officials shocked by Greece's stance: Germany's FAS paper http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/11/us-eurozone-greece-germany-idUSKBN0N20JA20150411 "The paper said at last week's meeting the Greek representative just asked where the money was "like a taxi driver", according to sources, and insisted his country would soon be bankrupt." I think Greece has really moved to blowing it. They did not have their homework ready. Greece's reparations demand could bring the euro crisis to a head http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2015/...demand-could-bring-the-euro-crisis-to-a-head/ "Greece's reparations demand comes at a time when the government in Athens is running out of money" Watch JP Morgan wriggle Greek-Bond Champion JPMorgan Says Buy Debt as Pessimism Overdone http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...jpmorgan-says-buy-debt-as-pessimism-overdone/ Chase's Jamie Dimon Warns Shareholders in Email to Prepare for Grexit http://www.pappaspost.com/chases-jamie-dimon-warns-shareholders-in-email-to-prepare-for-grexit/
Analysis - Greece may have blown best hope of debt deal http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/12/uk-eurozone-greece-deal-analysis-idUKKBN0N306Y20150412 ""Now it's a political non-starter," said a euro zone official. "There's just no appetite in the euro zone for a grand bargain to take over Greece's debt to the IMF and the ECB.""
Latest. Hard to tell how this will pan out as ever. Greece prepares for debt default if talks with creditors fail http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c5964f9c-e1ef-11e4-bb7f-00144feab7de.html "Greece is preparing to take the dramatic step of declaring a debt default unless it can reach a deal with its international creditors by the end of April, according to people briefed on the radical leftist government's thinking."
You know neither did I but I'm beginning to seriously take it as a possibility now. I'm watching carefully for signs like further capital controls that would proceed it by the numbers a default would come in June/July. I expected the usual EU debt dance and the submission of some half assed compromise reforms and a further release of liquidity. It is pretty amazing that the situation has got to this juncture. Ireland and Portugal are already paying massively less interest than Greece and the same IMF payoff and refinancing could have been accomplished in the Greek situation but recent events are almost like an attempt to make that impossible politically. Crazy stuff.
I'm not certain this would be much benefit to silver although I can see a short term bump for gold from it. It depends how much disorder it might cause. Here's a brainstorm list Greek introduces capital controls French banks stock falls Euro drops heavily short term Dollar rises (what happens to US interest rates then!!) Flight to dollar denominated assets causes further bubble US imports soar and exports crash Germanys economy booms on a cheap Euro driving exports Ireland and Portugal get their devalued Euro US is forced back to QE Greece launches a new drachma which is immediately devalued 50% It would be very inflationary for the US Long term it would actually seriously strengthen the Euro. Is it enough to trigger a derivatives market issue? Only if it happens unexpectedly and is disordered. I 100% expected the Greeks to walk in with a large meaningless reform document which would have given the excuse for the EU to throw further money at them to pay of the IMF and refinance at lower interest. To start mouthing off about WW2 in the middle of this and not bother to prepare any guidelines as requested for how Greece will be run fiscally to provide the Germans a political excuse to stump up the cash is just nuts. Euro could go well below the dollar on this one in the short term 75-85 cents for a Euro territory until stability is restored. The Greek government has refuted claims they are preparing to default and the next big date is 24th Aprils but it is June/July the maths really start failing to add up for Greece. There is no way the Poles, Estonians et all will vote to bail out Greece as long as they are playing games with Moscow either. They won't get much support from the likes of Ireland either - they owe Ireland 6 billion. If you can't hedge against the dollar with the euro then some money may go to gold short term but that would be countered by the strengthening of the dollar. A Euro low would be a good time to flip metals into Euros for traders. If the Euro was to fall steeply the German economy would go ballistic on exports. Not sure the Greek exit would be a black swan. A derivatives implosion would be. There is something like half a trillion dollars in derivatives linked to Greek bonds. If the derivatives markets were take n by surprise it would be a black swan. Any Greek exit would half to be signalled in advance to avoid that. New capital controls on the movement of money form Greece to the EU are the best clue.
You owe the bank 1 million dollars, you've got a problem. You owe the bank 100 million dollars, the bank has a problem.
Nations are not banks and that's what is different here and you have all these archaic nationalist sentiments flying around in what should be really a purely fiscal situation.
Prefacing this with a healthy dose of skepticism but this article looks at the price of gold via events in Greece CHARTS: What will happen to gold price after Greek exit http://www.mining.com/charts-will-happen-gold-price-greek-exit/ I'm not interested in the figures he's calling but I think the analysis touches a few good points. PMs are proving their merits to those in the Eurozone since last October so far anyway!
Latest on Greece Rumours circulating that Greece asked the IMF for a delay in payment which the IMF refused and that the prior payment to the IMF was made from a reserve fund related to Heath pensions. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/04/16/lagarde-news-conference/25869535/ "WASHINGTON The head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday the group will not allow Greece to delay payments it's scheduled make next month as part of its massive bailout. "Payment delays have not been granted by the board of the IMF the last 30 years," Managing Director Christine Lagarde said at a news conference during the IMF-World Bank spring meetings here. "We have never had an advanced economy asking for a payment delay." " ..... "Lagarde's comments followed a Financial Times report Thursday that Greek officials had informally approached the IMF inquiring about agreeing to a delay in its payments. If it misses its payments, Greece would effectively default." In an alarming twist major UK bookmaker William Hill has closed its book on a greek default and is no longer taking bets - the odds having fallen to below 3/1 Fresh fears of Greek default hit European markets: William Hill stops taking bets on a Grexit as country's borrowing costs jump http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...ts-Grexit-country-s-borrowing-costs-jump.html "The news sent the country's borrowing costs higher, hit European markets and saw bookmaker William Hill suspending betting on a Greek exit from the euro." UK bookies have a good track record on being accurate in odds on UK, US and EU referenda. Key dates are approaching for Greek IMF repayments and no EU deal appears to be on the horizon. Of all the events that are likely to shake the PM markets and Forex at present Greek EU exit is IMO head and shoulders above the rest and time wise the numbers and current political situation make it potentially imminent.
I think Euro drops heavily are rather long term, because by the of recovery they will call it deutsche mark
That's actually the interesting thing. A drop in the euro would be a massive export stimulator for the Eurozone manufacturing economies. Further it would give the currency devaluation that Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain crave. The Eurozone economies would be in a great position long term if they get rid of Greece and wind up with a cheap euro.....short term weak, long term strong. It would place immense pressure on the US trade balance with an over strong dollar due to short term 'flight to safety' in US assets and very difficult to to raise interest rates to control asset inflation. Very very bad or the US short medium. Quite good for the euro long..
The holy grail for central bankers... devaluation without debasement. This is why Greece is on the brink and will be kept there balancing for as long as needs be. Greece in it's current state is useful to the EU, the real mystery is why everyone can't see through the drama.
Aye. It is the potential for the best laid plans of mice and men going wrong that is interesting here. Latest..... "Greece asks public agencies to hand over reserve cash" http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32382826 "Greece has ordered its public sector bodies to hand over any reserve cash to help it meet a payment due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)."
^^^ Knowing the Greeks, you can bet a lot of cash is about to be moved.... but it won't be going to the Central Bank of Greece
So is the Greek governments accountancy so I imagine they can relate to each other. The IMF does however have gold reserves on a par with China at the moment......they need to clear off the more expensive IMF loans at all cost and stop reminding the Germans that all they got for throwing cash at them was some blather about WW2.
