Latest elections from Europe are not looking good the the EU and the Euro as a currency unit. I've wondered what mechanism could be used to break apart the Euro into 'North Euro' and 'South Euro'. I hadn't thought of this mechanism. I thought it would be a rational decision based upon economic commonsense. No, it appears the people will be given the 'you asked for it' response. I read almost two years ago (Pippa Malmgreen) that Germany had printed pallets of 'New Marks'. Nothing seemed to come of it but perhaps now they'll pull them out of storage.
Nothing out of the ordinary, I don't see the euro crash this year, probably not next year either. Most likely, the eurozone will contract. Right now I think what's going on in Europe is rather ideology-based political conflicts. Perhaps it's happening (or they are letting it happen) because they are diverting attention from the main economic and financial issues.
The Euro is not going to crash and burn. But the Weakening against the GBP is already starting to show and the end is not insight yet
Julie, I have always felt that the ORIGINAL idea of a 'European Common Market' was a winner. Then instead of leaving well enough alone or quitting while you are ahead, they decided to press on to a full socialist dream of a One Continent (socialist) Government. The next step of course is a One World (socialist) Government. The above has FAR less chance of success than one such as the USA, where they had one language, one heritage, one economy, and one political idea. Those 13 colonies came together quite naturally. It has proved to be a dismal failure in Europe. Those Euro countries have been at each others throats ever since the Romans left, and every generation is taught of the atrocities and hatreds of the past. In my never humble opinion, the whole idea of a Euro and full integration WILL fail! The powers that be in Europe will fight it tooth and nail, but fail it will! Like all socialist systems they always come up against goals and costs and when they do not balance they borrow the difference. Not certain about when, but not that far away, maybe even THIS year! JMO OC
I seem to remember a small civil war killing a few people based on different political ideas about the economy.
Yep, but it stayed together, even after 600,000 dead. They have been agonising about it ever since. And on that comparison, Europe has had about 200 since the 6th century. OC
The problem is that many of the European Banks have dollar denominated debts. So, while the ECB can print Euro's to recapitalise their Euro side of the equation, it (the ECB) can't control the whole problem. The ECB & US FED need to do a swap arrangement. This may be the explanation of the mysterious buyer of $140B of US Treasuries in Belgium recently (you remember the buyer that bought up exactly the number of bonds that no-one else wanted to buy?) Jim Rickards mentions this at around 22.34mins [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgPyWLr20jk[/youtube]
I watched a video of a TV interview of a few people of various political persuasions from the EU a while ago, regretably didn't save it. The topic was illegal immigration. I'm not sure that's necessarilly the case today OC. The young woman from France was raised a federalist and was fanatically pro-EU. She was saying things like "We all have collective guilt for the sins of our empires". She was shouted down by a Greek politician who understandably didn't feel that way, but he was a lot older. Youtube is full of videos of young brainwashed federalists across Europe who don't know any better. Edit Actually I hesitate to use the word 'Federalist'. The EU isn't a federal system with states (nations) having their own responsibilities separate from the responsibilities of the federal government. The EU is one centralist supranational government that reduces the nations to mere provinces whose only responsibility is to enforce the thousands of directives the EU imposes.
Is there anyone in doubt that the Euro will break up? Seriously only a child that still believes in the tooth fairy or someone with mental difficulties could believe that dozens of countries with different cultures, tax system, governments and fiscal responsibility could maintain the same currency without direct control of it's central bank.
In my view it is down to one country wether or not the euro disintegrates and that's Germany. While many of Germany's citizens may like to see the the DM back, Germany's exporters love the weak euro and Merkel doesn't want to upset the apple cart. Germany is the 2nd biggest exporter in the world in 2013 after China the no 1 exporter.
AS, "Actually I hesitate to use the word 'Federalist'. The EU isn't a federal system with states (nations) having their own responsibilities separate from the responsibilities of the federal government. The EU is one centralist supranational government that reduces the nations to mere provinces whose only responsibility is to enforce the thousands of directives the EU imposes." Agree, this is one of its major weaknesses. A (UN and IMF) socialists wet dream. "Today Europe, tomorrow, the world". OC
