Election Predictions

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by JulieW, May 3, 2019.

  1. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    About time for some speculation. I spotted the piece below on Abbott's seat. I've been keeping an eye on the reports of his Warringah campaign and with 11% advantage I still think he's out, so my prediction:

    Abbott out after a 14% swing against him.

    Anyone else?

    (P.S. Losing could be good for him as well as Warringah and the rest of us. I think his boxing days have left him with a few deficits.)
     
  2. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Fraser Anning and his cobbled together Party.

    Strange collection of misfits and IQ challenged.

    Prediction. No Seats.
     
  3. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Saw the NSW senate ballot paper today when seeing the old man who has a postal vote this year. Fraser's cobbled together party is running 4 candidates for the upper house in NSW.

    Whether his NSW team land a seat or two or none at all, it more than some of the minors.

    In closing, thank f$%k it's only approx 1/3 the size (in candidate numbers) of the recent NSW Upper House ballot paper.
     
  4. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Abbott not polling well. From SMH.

    New polling commissioned by GetUp suggests former prime minister Tony Abbott is on track for a defeat by independent candidate Zali Steggall in his blue ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah.

    A Lonergan poll of 805 Warringah voters shows Mr Abbott trailing Ms Steggall 56-44 on a two party-preferred basis. GetUp is campaigning against Mr Abbott in Warringah.

    The poll also showed climate change and the environment is a top-order issue for Warringah voters.

    Ms Steggall, an Olympic skier-turned-barrister, has put combating climate change at the centre of her campaign and says the Morrison government has failed to act on emissions reduction or encouraging the renewable energy transition.


    Mr Abbott has held Warringah for almost 25 years. Under his leadership, the Coalition government scrapped Labor's price on carbon and as a backbencher he has strongly fought against emissions reduction measures.


    The polling was conducted on May 1. The result is worse for Mr Abbott than a Reachtel poll in February, also commissioned by GetUp, which had the veteran Liberal MP behind 54-46 after preferences were considered.

    Mr Abbott’s primary vote remained the same in both polls at around 38 per cent. However it is well below the 51.6 per cent primary vote he snared at the 2016 election.

    Some 35 per cent of respondents said climate change and the environment would help determine their vote – ahead of economic management at 27 per cent.

    Of those who planned to vote for Ms Steggall, 89 per cent oppose the propose Adani coal mine.


    GetUp's campaign director Miriam Lyons said voters clearly wanted their federal MPs to protect the climate for future generations.

    “People in Warringah are demanding action on climate change like never before,” she said.

    “It’s clear our climate can’t afford another 25 years of Tony Abbott, this election Warringah will be voting for climate leadership.”

    The Herald asked the Coalition campaign headquarters for its own polling in Warringah. In response, it said "the only way to stop [Labor leader] Bill Shorten and his higher taxes on retirees, housing and incomes is to vote Liberal in every electorate – including in Warringah".

    As previously reported, a group of students tracked Mr Abbott down in a local cafe after the protest and voiced their concerns to him.

    He told them "the Earth has survived many things" and he didn't believe the "environmental catastrophe" predicted by scientists would come about.
     
  5. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    a) would like to know questions being asked of the Warringah voters given GetUp is paying for the polling and thus as we all know, those who pay, call the tune, so I'm highly suspicious that GetUp are push polling.

    b) if the polling is legit, then what the hell is in the water in Warringah....good intentions cost you nothing at the outset...down the track it'll cost them their two Mercs, heated pools and then we'll hear them scream.
     
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  6. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well the figures for Abbott are looking bad for him. It seems the Liberal ministers have gone to ground trying to save their seats.

    London to a brick it is Labor's to lose.

    But Abbott's sister has a piece in The Age today:

    Should those voters back Zali Steggall, what they will get is not some kind of benign faux Liberal. They will elect a member of a quasi-party that includes in its ranks Rob Oakeshott, Kerryn Phelps and Andrew Wilkie. Oakeshott, who was elected as a National before betraying his constituents to hand government to Labor; Phelps, who was elected to the City of Sydney Council as the running mate of hard-left lord mayor Clover Moore; Wilkie, who had to shrug off his membership of the Greens to get elected anywhere.


    There’s a theme there, and Steggall epitomises it. This is not a candidate or a party of the centre. This is not a candidate or a party of principle, but of self-interest and opportunism. This is a candidate and a party that has sniffed a whiff of discontent on climate change policy in the genuine centre and is swooping to exploit that, with the covert help of Labor and its allies.

    Steggall was a fine and inspiring representative of her country as an athlete, but I don’t believe she is seeking election to public life because she has suddenly found a vocation. She’s part of an orchestrated plan to take advantage of the preferential voting system using non-Labor branded, left-wing candidates to unseat incumbents in previously unassailable Liberal seats. The writing of that plan was on the wall last October, when Phelps accidentally thanked the “people of Warringah” in her victory speech on the night of the Wentworth byelection.
    But she would, wouldn't she? LOL
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
  7. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Here's some odds from the AFR.

    If the nation's bookmakers are on the money, Australian federal politics is a week away from losing some of its biggest names.

    With some senior Liberals warning Tony Abbott is at real risk of losing to challenger Zali Steggall this week, online betting agency Sportsbet had the independent as the $1.80 favourite to win the Sydney seat of Warringah. The former prime minister was at $1.90 on Friday. But rival agency Ladbrokes had Mr Abbott ahead on Friday, at $1.67 to Ms Steggall's $2.10.

    Punters favouring Mr Abbott's ouster can get odds of $1.70 in a multi-bet for both Mr Abbott and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton to lose on May 18. In his seat of Dickson, Mr Dutton had odds of $2.30 against Labor's Ali France at $1.60, potentially ending an 18-year parliamentary career for the conservative Liberal.

    Odds of $5.50 are on offer for the chance of independents Rob Oakeshott, Kerryn Phelps and Ms Steggall to all win.​
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yesterday’s Group 1 feature event the Doomben 10000:

    Screen Shot 2019-05-12 at 11.25.23 am.png

    The $2.30 favourite came 4th. Sometimes the bookies are off the mark.
     
  9. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Brexit and Trump would agree.
     
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  10. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    One thing the bookies didn't pay notice too re DJT was recent voter history. Note, this has no impact on our electoral system but just a small example of what the bookies should taken into account when setting odds for Trump back then.

    During the 2016 presidential primaries, the number of Republicans voting in the presidential primaries (and mainly for Trump) was at a record level and above the level of Democrats turning out to vote in 2016. I guess the Dem's didn't come out for HRC in the primaries cos they felt / knew it was a done deal. In fact , the Den's primary vote level in 2016 was 20% below that of 2008 when Barry won.

    Same happened for the GOP in 2000 (more GOP primary voters than Dem's in the presidential primaries and at a record level) with 1980 being an anomaly (more Dem's than GOP primary voting) and I guess maybe due to Carter be a pretty useless POTUS and Reagan as the shoe in.

    To bring this back to our own fair land, the bookies have the ALP at damn short odds to take the Treasury benches, but as I've noted before, the ALP's primary vote (via opinion polls) as at last week was still soft at 34-35% and that isn't enough for the ALP even with Green preferences to take Govt based on historical data. The ALP still need to get up to 40% to even form minority govt as not all Green prefs go to the ALP. The LNP's primary vote at present ain't much better and there lies the greater mystery as the disaffected LNP voters are not showing up the the ALP primary vote numbers.

    Knowing what will happen with ONP and UAP voters (who appear to have drawn votes from ALP and LNP) and their second choice is something that can't be easily ascertained as there isn't much data to predict where ONP and UAP votes will go. Given the above, I think the odds the bookies are giving the LNP are generous and I did put my money where my mouth is and placed a few bets on the LNP for number of total seats won in Lower House (for both majority and minority govt). Were much better odds than a straight LNP win yes / no.

    I'm going with the primary vote of the ALP at present not being enough right here and now to win govt come Saturday. If I'm wrong, I'll be washing away the pain (and the plate of crow I'll be eating) with many a beer.
     
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  11. Silverman99

    Silverman99 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Being an outsider but an interested observer of your politics as it is far more interesting than our own what are the chances of having a hung parliament on Saturday night ?

    Or will the Bob Hawke factor get Labor over the line with a good majority ?

    Any comments
     
  12. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It is hard to know because so many factors are in play. The leader of the Labor Party Bill Shorten, is on the nose with most voters and the distaste for Shorten would easily give the Independents a seat or two in my view.

    The states have definite tendencies and tensions that our Two Party system might find causes some difficulty this time round just as it did for the Gillard Government.

    The further south, the more the population seems to vote for the Left side of politics, while the further north, the more they seem to vote for the Right side of politics. In that mix is a disaffection for the two parties and there could easily be a big swing to independents.

    There is a flood of first time young voters also and common sense would suggest that they will look for idealistic and 'greater good' candidates, which would suggest more support for Greens and Left leaning candidates.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Labor trying to put together a government which incorporates Greens and independents, and the current Coalition trying to cobble together something with the Right wing independent elements, One Nation, Anning and such.

    I hesitate to say landslide for Labor, but the LNP is certainly on the nose and the LNP could easily be reduced by a third, giving up seats to independents, both moderate and Right wing.

    But, that said, there seems to be a general trend to want to change the government regardless, and that is a common feature of the Australian Electoral system. This tendency, I think, will bury the greed and dull the hip pocket nerves that are itching at Labor's tax reforms.

    Sometimes Australia just votes for change, for changes' sake, and so I think Labor will govern, in its own right, after this Saturday.
     
  13. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Active Member

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    ALP and LNP win same amount of seats. Shady deals behind closed doors with independents, minor and micro parties to follow.
    Result- a minority govt no one voted for.

    Feeling lucky bet- sex party hold balance of power in what would be a 'well hung' Parliament.
     
  14. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    Labor win,right wing independents control upper house.
     
  15. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    This is for International visitors to this website, in case they didn't know what is happening Down-Under. p.s. Americans, where is Australia on a map.
    FEDERAL ELECTION.jpg
     
  16. Roswell Crash Survivor

    Roswell Crash Survivor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's the day of the 2019 Australian Federal Election. It's approximately 14:50 AEST, and polls will close in approximately 3 hours.

    Odds on offer for the Coalition to form the next government

    Sportsbet - $7.00

    BetEasy - $7.50

    Ladbrokes - $8.00

    Bet365 - $8.00
     
  17. jultorsk

    jultorsk Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Ok, time to make a killing on betting for Coalition?

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/...-researcher-predicts-who-will-win/news-story/

    Prof Stantic has been running the numbers over the past few weeks but wanted to wait until the last days of the campaign to reveal his prediction.

    He told news.com.au the data indicated Clive Palmer had been doing well on social media and that could help decide the election because of United Australia Party preferences going to the Liberals.

    He said the Greens had been perceived negatively online by using primary school children to push their climate change agenda.

    According to Prof Stantic’s data, the Coalition is still tipped to win, but its lead had shortened in the past week.

    “The Coalition is losing the lead but it’s neck to neck,” he told news.com.au.

    “Labor has South Australia and Victoria, but the Coalition is well ahead in NSW and Western Australia, and Queensland is basically a coin toss.

    “It’s changing as we speak.

    “Clive Palmer is still attracting significant sentiment.”
     
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  18. l***g

    l***g Active Member Silver Stacker

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    My prediction is that one side will win and the other side will complain.
     
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  19. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Maybe Labor will just win a hung parliament and form government with the Greens. The an armada of boats will set out for Australia and Labor will fill up offshore islands with economic migrants.

    Nah, that sounds too far fetched to ever happen.
     
  20. Silverman99

    Silverman99 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    According to Prof Stantic’s data, the Coalition is still tipped to win, but its lead had shortened in the past week.

    No pun intended I’m sure with his lead shortened by Shorten
     
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