Discussion in 'Silver' started by Skunny, Dec 13, 2010.
OH yes and Skunny you might want to check out this thread;
Although I've got my AH HA!! moment at age of 40(ish). I've still treasured my life, family and friends.
I am impressed that at 23 you have realised all this
i wish someone had told me at that age, i'm now 72, just think of how much i might have had if i had known. i've only been collecting coins for 30 years so i've missed out on at least 20 years (back when silver was only a few dollars an ounce). i did try back in the 70s but got taken to the cleaners by the "hunt bros. fiasco", these days i am very careful ( perhaps too careful) but at least i have something physical to hold and look at, so spread the message " "start them young". mike.
Very wise words from Forge:
You are going to be a wealthy man in the future. I wish someone had mentioned the money equations and the value of saving 10 percent of your income when I was 23.
Life is for living and it can end tomorrow - a man has many dreams, a sick man has only one - so take care of your health, live your life, be generous to those without your insight and keep on your path. History will prove that you have made a good decision. Well done.
and p.s. don't buy paper gold. Buy real physical hold in your hand metal.
Kudo's and welcome Skunny (Adam).
Everything's been pretty much said in the many words of wisdom in previous replies, but I'd definitely recommend you continue to increase your Financial Intelligence while building your silver/gold stack. By the time you're friends realise what they've done and how much time and money they've wasted, you'll be kicking back in a pretty good place enjoying life.
I suggest you continue to read more books from the Rich Dad series, and if you continue to apply what you learn from these, your financial wealth will get better by the day.
I am confused I thought one of the key factors WOULD be a GFCII and the shift in assets from Paper to PM's this will make Silver go through the roof ?
Welcome aboard also Skunny don't worry too much about trying to convince others most of us here have tried to talk to friends and relatives and they really don't get it. Without being selfish you need to do what is right for you and let the rest do what they feel is right for them. I have given them books, links, Youtube etc... and no one has stepped over. Of about 20+ people I have spoken to no one knows, no one cares they all feel confident that everything will be alright. I have given up now I was beginning to sound like a Silver Preacher and mad man LOL
Best of luck and others have said enjoy yourself and don't worry too much. Set yourself an initial target get yourself into it like you have with nearly 64oz of Silver. You are now in the game
In a GFC Part II, the assets will shift to gold, not silver. Silver will drop as industrial demand drops. Never forget that silver is a commodity, and that there is not enough of it stockpile to be monetary in nature.
Ok I do understand that but it is still a PM ? So wouldn't there be some demand just in that alone. I suppose industry is the biggest user by far, but I do wonder what the ratios are to Ind use and people having it themselves etc... Would it be 95%Ind or only 40%Ind etc... I am sure the percentages of people now aware are growing each and every day. Of course if they all panic and sell that could also have a dire consequence. I suppose only time will tell.
Just to add would you then say have a bigger % in Gold rather than Silver, based on that scenario ?
Yes, silver is still a precious metal. That I believe is in reference to is being found naturally in metallic form, but not sure on that.
As to percentages; it depends on your attitude. There is a reasonable probability that in the near term silver will increase in value more than gold. As such, buying silver now may net you a larger increase in value in the short term.
Personally, my aim is to accumulate wealth - gold. Silver is one means by which I achieve that.
Silver is a dual nature investment. It has a both a financial and commodity vector and amusingly, when demand for one drops, the other usually rises.
If both rise at the same time...
Don't mean to be a party pooper guys and gals, but regardless of which PM you think will be the better investment in the future we shouldn't forget the simple fact that all PM prices are tied to the US dollar and therefore any future price rises (or falls) are relative to the USD/AUD comparison rate.
For example, in Feb 2009 when spot gold was trading at just over US$1,000, gold was priced at approx AU$1,565 because of the relative low value of the Aussie dollar. Today spot gold is currently trading a little over $1,400 and yet in Aussie dollars you can still buy a 1 oz gold bar for $1,475, which is less than what you could when spot gold was at $1,000 in Feb 09.
So in terms of local currency, gold hasn't booked any gains for almost 22 months simply because of the strong Aussie dollar, even though the gold price has increased by $400 (40%) in US dollar terms. So this is something we all need to be aware of and possibily factor into any future price predictions.
Now if and when silver or gold start to go to the moon as some predict (as do I), it will all depend on what level the US dollar is as to how much it will appreciate in Aussie dollars. I suspect that if the PM's go vertical, then it will be because the US dollar is getting trashed.
If this is the case, then you can expect the Aussie dollar to be much higher than it is now and therefore any gains in the PM's will be watered down in our own currency.
I'm not saying it won't be worth stacking silver or gold, because it will, and that's why I'm heavily invested in silver and will be for some time to come. But if silver goes to US$100 in the future, there is a chance it may be less than this in Aussie dollars. How much lower, maybe $10, $20 or $30 - no one knows. However even silver at AU$70 is definitely much better than it is now, so yes it will be worth it
One way to combat this is to buy USD/AUD as a hedge against any falls in the US dollar. This is not for everyone, but it's an option.
Hope I wasn't too much of a party pooper
fiat exchange rate is important.
Just one more thing to throw into the mix.......
I can't see the AUD rising much more then $1.2 max.
You have to remember, AUD is speculated amongst alot of forex traders all over the world. If SHTF and people need to deleverage they would dump the AUD.
At the moment you are getting a good deal, because of the exchange rate and natural rise in the price of PMs.
When the PM price manipulation gets exposed or there is a comex default or if the comex and JP morgan are forced to cover for their shorts then the price will rise irrespective of the exchange rate.
If there is a bond collapse in the US and that people need to deleverage the AUD will tank back to 70 cents. Your PMs will appreciate in this space relative in Australian dollars.
Also if there is a currency collapse of the USD, the price of gold and silver will rise naturally when people flock to sound money.
Either way, sitting on metals is hedging against a collapse in currency. In addition its natural bullish sentiments will cause it to appreciate in price.
I had some friends say buy USD and trade it back when the AUD tanks. I laughed and thought to myself buying PMs is the same thing. Except I am hedging against third party risk as well. I get all benefits with a small degree of risk (if PMs go to zero, because no one wants them).
But this risk is unlikely because throughout 5000 years of history gold and silver is wanted and will always be wanted.
Yep Slam agree with what you are say. If the US dollar gets hit or is debased then it is highly likely investors will take flight to safety and buy commodities.
If this happens, they will also dump fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar due to it's inherent debt risk, and in doing so they will have look to invest in some form of currency as the PM's market is ridiculously minute compared to the amount of dollars available to be invested in the world.
As such, they may have to look elsewhere to "store" their money and one way to do this is to buy bonds/currency of countries that have solid growth prospects, and therefore less risk, such as Australia and this will strengthen the Aussie dollar.
Having said all this, who knows - in a few years we may be on a some form of gold standard and fiat currencies as we know them will be non-existent.
In the end, anything is possible. We just have to be aware of these possibilities and then take the necessary action appropriate to our individual needs.
I anticipate 1AUD trending towards 2USD over the next 4 years...
Guys...after reading the comments on this thread... I seriously don't know what to think. Thye're all relevant well argued points :/
I wanna take the blue pill and go back into the 'matrix'
If you could go back, would you really want to?
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