@court jester, have a look at this, I was holding off until closer to the day, hoping Yellen's and the MSM's semiphore speak would drive it above $3. Hope I haven't missed the boat. [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_screen_shot_2015-12-03_at_72632_am.png][/imgz]
Same here, maximum bid amount was pretty pathetic, or does Sportsbet have different levels? I don't use it much. Stocks haven't moved that much but looks like PMs have priced it in plus more to drop it they go ahead. Although it 'looks good' for a rate rise I would still be surprised if they do it this December. Early next year most likely. Finger on the trigger on announcement time anyway.
I doubt the US economy could handle a 25 basis point raise so I really doubt the Fed would do that, but before you make any huge wagers on it there was a rumor that for the first time the Fed was considering a less than 25 point move (as low as a 5 point rise)
NFP could be a low number, gives the Fed the excuse not to raise and sends the POG up, wouldn't surprise....
Took the $4 [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_screen_shot_2015-12-05_at_74757_am.png][/imgz]
The signals from the Fed have been strongly hinting at a rate rise in December. As a result I placed a substantial bet on the 21st November with odds of 1:40. I know that I would be kicking myself more if the fed did raise interest rates and I didn't take the opportunity. Time will now tell if I made the right decision.
1:40? I call BS on this . Happy to apologize if you can show a receipt, but i do not see that happening Edit: Receipt =bet slip.
Only 3 days to go.......I just cannot wait to see what happens this time around. Probably going to put a bet on this its almost certain Yellen is going to raise rates.
Here's my scenario :- Stockmarkets flash crash for a couple of days early this week. FED baulks and comes out with a reduced rate rise (under 25 basis points) that stabilises the markets while saving face for the FED (it's still a rise even if its just 10 basis points). PMs respond to the upside and...
In the US on Friday the S&P 500 Index was down 1.94% and the NASDAQ Composite Index was down 2.21% so the markets have already factored in the Fed raising rates before the end of the year. Furthermore the AUD has declined from $0.73 USD to $0.71 USD in the last week supporting the anticipated rate rise. Janet Yellen has already said that the Fed would be taking a slow approach to any rate increases so I would not expect US interest rates to be higher than 1% by this time next year.
It's true markets for the most part have priced in a rate hike, but the markets are always front-running so depending on what Yellen says about forward guidance and how aggressive or passive the Fed intends on raising next year will have more bearing on the markets than the hike itself. What the markets haven't priced in is by how much the Chinese intend to continue depreciating the Yuan which is creating turmoil on emerging market currencies and share markets because China isn't really forthcoming with such information. It would depend on how the USD reacts after the rate decision and going into next year. Instincts tell me that the gold and silver should fall at least initially on a strengthening USD, but that's not always the case. What we as PM investors want to see next year is inflation in the US to return and outpacing the Fed's rate hike cycle and rising more than the Fed is comfortable with as it would create an environment of negative real interest rates where inflation is greater than nominal rates by 2% or more. e.g the Fed's rate is 0.25% and headline inflation is at more than 2.25% as it makes holding cash unappealing as your losing 2% on your investment. I could only see something like this happen if the capital that is currently flowing out of emerging markets like China finds in way back into the US markets causing the US economy to start overheating, but this will take time to show up. By the middle of next year we should see where capital flowing after the dust settles from the initial rate hike.
Damn it google news is saying we gotta wait until thursday morning to find out the results. God i'm so sick of waiting for these big decisions to be made?
