Date for The FED to raise interest rates?

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TheEnd, Sep 8, 2015.

  1. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    The problem is the detail in the enjoyment statistics, participation is way down and just recently average weekly earnings started to go down (after basically rising all year). You throw in the manufacturing and last months bad non-farms plus the revision down of the month before, low PCE index, bad retail sales figures and the miss on all the ppi numbers and it doesn't paint the rosiest picture.

    Mixed bag on the results last night, jobless claims down but month on month CPI was negative and YoY unchanged, ex food and energy up a tenth. The outlook survey for NY and Philadelphia looked pretty dire.

    After not going in September the markets have more it less priced in a no rise enviroment for months to come, doing it abby time soon would be a real shock to the system and the fed seems pretty trigger shy now. Plus, they're either not hitting it only very very slowly heading towards their inflation target as is, if things work as they're supposed to then a rise is disinflationary and sets it all back, if they aren't meeting it at current levels the projected inflation figures with a couple rises next year are going to be much worse.
    I just don't see it, so much of the economy is now predicated on cheap credit and even just the perception of an easy environment being rocked could be too big a kick to investor confidence. A quater point probably doesn't matter that much in the actual impact it has but looking at the way markets reacted when the september hike looked on and then when it wasn't done tells me that fear of a rate hike is pretty real.

    I don't mean to sound like Peter Schiff but I just don't see it. They could well do it and I'm certainly no expert but with volatility showing up anywhere it's thing to be hard to pick trends and say that now it's ok.
     
  2. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    So what date is the October decision being made?
     
  3. AG Hamster

    AG Hamster Member Silver Stacker

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    Again in WST format, so 4am Sydney time.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. AG Hamster

    AG Hamster Member Silver Stacker

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    Here is the silver price chart I was talking about a few days ago. Recently bounced off the 12 year support trend line. If the Chinese GDP numbers come out around 7 or higher on Monday, it should be a good signal for more price gains.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  6. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    So will Yellen raise or leave rates at zero tonight?
     
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't think we'll find out for a couple of days yet, given the time difference and the timing of the announcement.

    Edit to add: they're not at zero yet though.
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    http://www.theguardian.com/business...candal-barclays-federal-reserve-business-live

    So they are playing silly buggers again, or maybe it's just the market reading too much into the reports and analysing semantics because there is SFA else to analyse.
     
  9. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Its going to be a looooong 2 months until the next decision thats for sure!!!
     
  10. LovingtheSilver

    LovingtheSilver Active Member Silver Stacker

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    A rate rise just before Christmas?? Not likely. But in March or June is a possibility, stir things up during an election year.
     
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Not if you think it'll be business as usual. There'll be lots of little distractions on the way before then.

    Hilary, fiscal cliff, ISIS, China, Putin, Merkel etc etc. Notice how the Syrian refugee crisis has gone a bit quiet?

    Must be time they stirred up something domestically, how about gay marriage again or let's bash some blackfellas?
     
  12. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Yes this is what I was thinking, they wont want to stop retail spending before the xmas rush.
     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    You can get a $1.95 on it The End.

    Personally, I'd take the $1.80.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The latest GDP Now cast:

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif][​IMG][/imgz]

    And this has been posted elsewhere, I'm tempted to gamble some of my pay:

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_screen_shot_2015-11-30_at_31918_pm.png][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  15. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I had a small wager of $50 @ $3 that they wont raise it in Dec, lets see how it goes.
     
  16. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think they'll raise rates this time. The RBA is betting they will too.
     
  17. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    Just read a USAtoday breaking news article that said Yellen has "all but confirmed" a rate rise in 2 weeks time.
    Game on.
     
  18. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  19. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    Cheers Holdfast, i was posting on the run and had left the link:)
     
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_screen_shot_2015-12-03_at_72246_am.png][​IMG][/imgz]
     

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