The problem is the detail in the enjoyment statistics, participation is way down and just recently average weekly earnings started to go down (after basically rising all year). You throw in the manufacturing and last months bad non-farms plus the revision down of the month before, low PCE index, bad retail sales figures and the miss on all the ppi numbers and it doesn't paint the rosiest picture. Mixed bag on the results last night, jobless claims down but month on month CPI was negative and YoY unchanged, ex food and energy up a tenth. The outlook survey for NY and Philadelphia looked pretty dire. After not going in September the markets have more it less priced in a no rise enviroment for months to come, doing it abby time soon would be a real shock to the system and the fed seems pretty trigger shy now. Plus, they're either not hitting it only very very slowly heading towards their inflation target as is, if things work as they're supposed to then a rise is disinflationary and sets it all back, if they aren't meeting it at current levels the projected inflation figures with a couple rises next year are going to be much worse. I just don't see it, so much of the economy is now predicated on cheap credit and even just the perception of an easy environment being rocked could be too big a kick to investor confidence. A quater point probably doesn't matter that much in the actual impact it has but looking at the way markets reacted when the september hike looked on and then when it wasn't done tells me that fear of a rate hike is pretty real. I don't mean to sound like Peter Schiff but I just don't see it. They could well do it and I'm certainly no expert but with volatility showing up anywhere it's thing to be hard to pick trends and say that now it's ok.
Here is the silver price chart I was talking about a few days ago. Recently bounced off the 12 year support trend line. If the Chinese GDP numbers come out around 7 or higher on Monday, it should be a good signal for more price gains.
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_screen_shot_2015-10-23_at_102326_pm.png][/imgz] https://frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1 MSM have gone quiet lately. At least they've got the presidential elections and China.
I don't think we'll find out for a couple of days yet, given the time difference and the timing of the announcement. Edit to add: they're not at zero yet though.
http://www.theguardian.com/business...candal-barclays-federal-reserve-business-live So they are playing silly buggers again, or maybe it's just the market reading too much into the reports and analysing semantics because there is SFA else to analyse.
A rate rise just before Christmas?? Not likely. But in March or June is a possibility, stir things up during an election year.
Not if you think it'll be business as usual. There'll be lots of little distractions on the way before then. Hilary, fiscal cliff, ISIS, China, Putin, Merkel etc etc. Notice how the Syrian refugee crisis has gone a bit quiet? Must be time they stirred up something domestically, how about gay marriage again or let's bash some blackfellas?
The latest GDP Now cast: [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif][/imgz] And this has been posted elsewhere, I'm tempted to gamble some of my pay: [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/753_screen_shot_2015-11-30_at_31918_pm.png][/imgz]
Just read a USAtoday breaking news article that said Yellen has "all but confirmed" a rate rise in 2 weeks time. Game on.
Economy is ready for rate hike Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled Wednesday that the Fed is all but certain to raise interest rates this month for the first time in nearly a decade, saying that gains in the economy and labor market have met the central bank's goals. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/12/02/janet-yellen-speech/76633224/