Current economic theory have lost the plot.

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by leo25, May 14, 2019.

  1. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...ng-assets-offshore-fears-extradition-11628446

    Big brother is further tightening control. Maybe another influx of hongkongers? Will prop up the property market in Singapore and Australia.

    The trade war is just a show, China is and needs to revert back to communism. The consequences will be severe for regional countries that depend on the Chinese bubble and hot money. The US will hardly be affected.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
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  2. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gresham's Law and sgbuyer like this.
  3. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    With Australia's tight connection with China, i wonder if the rich from HK will think twice before coming to Australia.
     
  4. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the package can be pick up from Sydney harbour by Chinese Navy :eek:
     
  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Very interesting video. Doesn't bode well for HK properties. Lee Ka Shing had been selling his hk assets since 5 years ago.

    https://www.scmp.com/business/compa...lls-center-us515-billion-record-deal-trim-his

    https://www.scmp.com/business/compa...li-ka-shings-property-flagship-becomes-cheung

    It’s going to be worst than the Asian financial crisis. The Asian financial crisis is actually very small. Only tens of billions in scale, only the size of the Madoff ponzi. AFC 2.0 will be much bigger than it's going to be political, not just a financial crisis.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2019
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  6. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the analysis is just crap,
    there is China behind small Hong Kong which is getting smaller when China advances, 50 years later
    the law in the US is written in such away of not recognizing Hong Kong as part of China, when reality after 1997 the British flag was lowered and Chinese fag fly today
    the extradition treaty law will pass anyway, no amount of protest can stop it
    going to paper USD, you kidding !!!, tell that to Russia ;)
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    They could go to Canada, Canada is godfather's territory, out of reach of big brother.
     
  8. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Many of the rich and "forward planners" in HK have dual citizenship (pre 1997) be it with Aust or other countries as a back up against a full bore PRC HK takeover.....which maybe on the cards. As to how many HK'ers have dual citizenship, I'm not sure but many of the local HK'er's I've worked with had dual citizenship with Aust, UK, US and Canada......but I suspect the average HK'er won't be as lucky.

    I as reading the other day (and happy to be corrected as I've haven't researched this), is that since 1997, the US treats HK separately to mainland China for trade and finance. This agreement is renewed annually by the US Govt...so what happens to HK as a financial centre if DJT plays real hardball with the PRC and threatens to not renew or doesn't that favorable agreement which would mean HK would be subject to the same trade and finance polices as applied to the PRC by the US?
     
  9. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    unlikely not after what we see happen to Meng Wanzhou, HK does not have this extradition treaty
    well when selling Huawei phones can get you extradited for trial in the US, that is suicide
    refining Iranian oil will get you extradited too, so is processing rare earth and not selling to the US would also land you in Jail
    welcome to the trumped world of tweeter bird
     
  10. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As is stands in law Hong Kong will become part of China in 2049 and to my understanding there is nothing to stop it. So Hong Kong will be no different then its neighbour city Shenzhen.

    Skip to 14:50
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2019
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  11. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good vid....and a few comments.

    1) You'll never see that type of discussion on western MSM. Be it Al Jazeera / RT etc at least you see something different and wider discussion.

    2) Old mate Victor at 14.50 was hard line PRC and given he was Deng's interpreter, no surprise he a hard line party man. Very much the "Iron Hand" without the velvet glove in that exchange, which given the current climate in HK I thought was misstimed by him, unless Beijing wanted to send a message.

    3) I hope Claudia Mo has an exit option from HK as she will be in the missing persons list one day I suspect.
     
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  12. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm sure old Victor was a farmer only 10 years ago and never learn the art of deception and subtlety. The best part was at 21:45 :D

    I'm going to keep an eye out for Claudia Mo, hope she doesn't vanish one day.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2019
  13. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...d-the-world-could-suffer-20190617-p51yc3.html

    Hong Kong's status as a financial powerhouse is under threat - and the world could suffer

    Hong Kong's survival as a global financial hub can no longer be taken for granted. The extradition battle being fought out on the streets of Wan Chai is inextricably tied to the larger Sino-US struggle for superpower hegemony.

    [​IMG]
    Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub is under threat.Credit:Bloomberg

    The more that Beijing chips away at Hong Kong's civil liberties and autonomy, the more certain it is that Washington will strip the enclave of its special status.

    Once this line is crossed, the US will cease to recognise the territory as an independent member of the World Trade Organisation. It will cut off access to sensitive technologies. Hong Kong will be subject to the same painful tariffs faced by exporters from mainland China.


    Many of the 1,400 US firms operating there will decamp, setting off an exodus towards Singapore. The Hong Kong model as we know it will no longer be viable.

    The US has been slow to act as China systematically erodes the "one nation, two systems" model established by Britain and China in 1984. The mood has suddenly changed.


    The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act introduced in the US House and Senate last week - backed by both parties - cocks the trigger on what amounts to a sanctions regime covering trade, finance, and technology.

    "If all this rolls out, Hong Kong is going to be just another Chinese city," said one of the drafters.

    The text links directly to the Emergency Economic Powers Act and calls for punitive action if Beijing further eviscerates the enclave's legal autonomy. For the current status quo to continue, the US administration must justify to Capitol Hill why the territory still deserves special treatment under the US Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992.

    The rating agencies have begun to issue warnings. Fitch says its AA+ grade "rests on the assumption that the territory's governance standards, rule of law, policy framework, and business and regulatory environments remain distinct from that of mainland China".

    [​IMG]
    Hong Kong's protests offer Donald Trump another irresistible weapon against Beijing.Credit:AP

    Carrie Lam, Hong Kong's chief executive, suspended the extradition bill over the weekend but remains defiant. She called the legislation a necessary objective - a "good thing" - and left no doubt that the authorities are playing for time.

    Swarms of demonstrators again poured out into the streets. Their goal has changed. They now demand Ms Lam's resignation. The protests carry an echo Tiananmen Square about them.

    While the news focus has been on the danger of extradition to China for such offences as "picking quarrels" or "running an illegal business" - standard charges used to suppress dissent in China - Hong Kong's business elites are just as alarmed by other clauses. The bill calls for "freezing and confiscating the assets of persons wanted for crimes in other jurisdictions". It brings the vast wealth of Hong Kong within reach of the Communist Party for the first time.

    Financial centres are famously "sticky". It is not easy to destabilise a well-established hub. But political shocks can bring matters to a head.

    Antwerp was Europe's thriving commercial hub and the world's richest city in 1560, a freethinking outpost of the Spanish Habsburg empire. The fall was swift once the Habsburgs began to choke its liberties and the counter-reformation reached fever pitch.

    Credit Suisse says there are over 850 individuals in Hong Kong who are each worth more than $US100 million ($145 million). Reuters reported that one tycoon with political "exposure" in China is already shifting sums of this magnitude to accounts in Singapore.

    Paul Chan Mo-po, Hong Kong's financial secretary, issued a warning last month about capital flight but blamed the stress on large outflows from China through the Shanghai Connect link, mostly by foreign investors alarmed over the deepening trade conflict. That is unlikely to be the whole story.

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has had to intervene repeatedly over recent months to defend the long-standing dollar peg. It forced up interbank Hibor rates last week to levels not seen since 2008, triggering a "short squeeze" to burn the fingers of speculators and shore up the currency.

    [​IMG]
    The Hang Seng is one of the most influential sharemarket indexes in the world. Credit:Kin Cheung

    Such action drains liquidity and is untenable over time. Monetary tightening by the HKMA - forced to shadow the US Federal Reserve - has slowed economic growth to a ten-year low. Retail sales contracted over the three months from February to April.

    A long squeeze risks popping Asia's most overheated property boom. The Bank for International Settlements says Hong Kong's "credit gap" - an early warning indicator for banking crises - was running at over 30 percentage points of GDP above its long-term trend as recently as early 2018. This was the most extreme reading anywhere in the world. It has left an overhang of leverage.

    Hong Kong is the financial gateway in and out of China, a conduit for Chinese companies with $US840 billion of US dollar debt. Its banking system is 8.3 times GDP, comparable to Iceland before its system blew up in 2007. A sudden loss of confidence in Hong Kong would have global systemic consequences.

    Events in Washington are moving fast. The bill in Congress tees up sanctions against those "complicit in suppressing basic freedoms in Hong Kong". It effectively stamps the scarlet letter on the enclave's top leadership.

    The bill demands a clampdown on sales of dual use technology and action to verify whether China is using Hong Kong as a back door to circumvent US tariffs. Ultimately it is the prerogative of President Donald Trump to decide whether to suspend special status.

    He has been coy on the issue, stating distractedly last week that "I hope it all works out for China and for Hong Kong". Mr Trump is unlikely to stand in the way of Congress for long. Hong Kong's protests offer him another irresistible weapon against Beijing.

    One bad tweet from the Oval Office and east Asia's super-rich may take matters into their own hands.

    Telegraph, London
     
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  14. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Global Cities

    Alpha++

    London, New York

    Alpha+
    Hong Kong, Beijing, Singapore, Shanghai, Sydney, Paris, Dubai, Tokyo

    Should HK drop out of the Alpha 8, Sydney may see economic growth as a result. I think Honkers will eventually be absorbed into China with the Geographic/Time advantages reverting to Sydney and Singapore. Sydney as a safe haven country may benefit the most.
     
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  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is the clearest message that China's turning away from capitalism, it's a trend that short of a revolution, no one can change. Trade war or no trade war won't change this shift. Mere mortals cannot withstand the power of the ring. Power vs country and people. Power comes first.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2019
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  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    China’s power brokers threatened by the freedom that capitalism brings you think @sgbuyer ?
     
  17. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Capitalism has nothing to do with freedom. Does Singapore have freedom? Does HK pre-1997 has freedom?
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    .

    It has everything to do with freedom. Without the private ownership of production you are left with communism. Obviously then China is not a capitalist country.

    It was an honest question, I obviously asked the wrong person. :cool:
     
  19. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Re China. Does capitalism inevitably give freedom? They look pretty much capitalist.
     
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  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    People have a better chance in a capitalist society of being free because goods are more available thanks to the profit incentive, production is owned privately and of course the free-market pays wages for labour.

    It’s no coincidence that the most free countries in the world are also capitalistic.

    China is a funny one. The leaders know that capitalism creates wealth, but they also know that as a former peasant’s life becomes more bearable, his wants turn to higher order things like culture, holidays and liberty.
     

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