COVID-19 has a 0.1% - 0.2% death rate.

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by willrocks, Apr 22, 2020.

  1. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    6,654
    Likes Received:
    1,972
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Holdfast, Silver260 and 66rounds like this.
  2. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Messages:
    1,363
    Likes Received:
    208
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Airborne transmission not being reported 29/03/2020 https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...plications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

    Airborne transmission now accepted 22/04/2020 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12326743

    A month ago asymptomatic people were considered not to be contagious.
    Today asymptomatic people are considered to be a reservoir for this disease and infectious.
    I would like to think that the numbers are as low as you post here, it would be a great relief as long as it stays out of my house.
    As you are aware the USA is already claiming a victory over this disease and claiming their infection rate is declining and that it is all but over.
    The strange thing is the numbers say THEY ARE LYING.
    Why on earth would we believe anything the USA govt has to say on this matter when they are down playing it on a massive scale and being very dishonest?

    The USA of course has a vested interest in down playing the severity of this outbreak as it will cause civil unrest like we have never seen before for the USA.
    I really hope you get to say I TOLD YOU SO to me later on down the track,but i do not think we are close to that point yet.
    I will however keep my fingers X'd that you are right and i am over reacting:)
     
    Silver260 likes this.
  3. dross

    dross Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2010
    Messages:
    522
    Likes Received:
    177
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Australia
  4. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,185
    Likes Received:
    974
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    I think we should note that there are quite a number of presumptions with this report.

    First and foremost there is a statement that many more people have had COVID-19 because people have antibodies. Corona type viruses have been in the population for what would seem a long time. So it is likely that some people have antibodies that would respond to the current tests. Now let me state I have not researched the tests that are being used and how specific they are to COVID-19. But I am questioning the validity of the statements.

    To me the better quantifiers are the cruise ship scenarios. The are a more well defined set. There are again qualifiers to these examples as people on cruise ships are generally older and can be considered higher risk and have higher death rates. These scenarios do not reflect a 0.1-0.2% death rate.

    I would consider the following paper a more well presented definition of the situation
    https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256

    But really this so to speak argument is not really about the figures is it. It is about fear uncertainty and doubt (FUD). People dont want to be f..ked with. They want to live their lives how they want. But no one is truly independent. What we do affects other people and so to a degree we must co-operate in ways that sometimes we will disagree with but we will try to use a democratic process to organise ourselves.

    No one is happy with government. But there are no current serious alternatives that take into account entire countries of people, the required coordination of economies and in this case the coordinated health responses.

    willrocks I see you don't like the way this is handled. It is not perfect for anyone. But I do think we all need to step back a little and as you have so rightly said - take some emotion out of the response to this situation - from whatever perspective you have.

    My two cents worth. Take it as you will.
     
    sterling-nz, Silver260 and STKR like this.
  5. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    9,439
    Likes Received:
    690
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    *In 2017, it was estimated that 435 000 deaths due to Malaria had occurred globally.
    *In 2016, an estimated 1.6 million deaths were directly caused by Diabetes. Another 2.2 million deaths were attributable to high blood glucose in 2012 (High blood glucose is defined as a distribution of fasting plasma glucose in a population that is higher than the theoretical distribution that would minimize risks to health (derived from epidemiological studies). High blood glucose is a statistical concept, not a clinical or diagnostic category.)
    *An estimated 17.9 million people died from Cardiovascular Disease (CVDs) in 2016, representing 31% of all global deaths. Of these deaths, 85% are due to heart attack and stroke.
     
    madaw1 and willrocks like this.
  6. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,185
    Likes Received:
    974
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    Interesting global figures. Non-communicable diseases represent 71% of global deaths. What should be noted is that these deaths are substantially focused on lower socio-economic population groups. They are deaths that are many years in the making. Malaria has been with us for ever it would seem - along with our blood sucking friends - mosquitoes. 94% of those that die from Malaria are in the African region and the vast majority under 5 years of age. ITN's (Insecticide Treated bed Nets) alone are reducing deaths in the under 5 age group by 20%.

    COVID-19 which ash been with us (as far we have been informed so far) from about October last year.

    On February 2, the US had 5 cases and zero deaths.
    On March 20 the US had 10,400 cases and 150 deaths.
    April 21 the US has over 800,000 cases and over 43,000 deaths.

    And this level of increase even with some level of social policies to reduce spread of this virus. To me this represents a very different impact and risk to western society.

    Cardiovascular disease is not going away and trillions are spent trying to address its impact. Fortunately it is not high contagious - imagine the response if it was.

    Ultimately there is a 100% death rate from all associated life risks. All the money you earn will be given to others in the end. Everything you do will be forgotten. What you do in the meantime is what counts.
     
    paruwka and sterling-nz like this.
  7. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    6,654
    Likes Received:
    1,972
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It's easy to fudge COVID-19 death numbers when there's so many co-morbidities to choose from.
     
    Chris_ and Holdfast like this.
  8. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    6,654
    Likes Received:
    1,972
    Trophy Points:
    113
    This is where facts come into play. There is no solid evidence that COVID-19 is substantially more dangerous than other flu seasons. Even when you take the media's publicised death count as fact,

    You used 'we' six times in your post. Clearly you're a communist. :D
     
    sterling-nz likes this.
  9. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2013
    Messages:
    1,174
    Likes Received:
    874
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SE QLD
    just as well they Fk'ed the world economy to get on top of this. :mad:
     
    Skyrocket, sterling-nz and willrocks like this.
  10. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,185
    Likes Received:
    974
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    You got me
     
    Chris_, sterling-nz and Silver260 like this.
  11. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    Messages:
    7,684
    Likes Received:
    3,494
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    House Corrino
    I would not be surprised if there are already many tens of thousands of Australians that have been infected, gotten over it and they never even knew that they had it. By the end of the year everyone in the world will have been exposed. There is no way to reopen economies without the virus spreading again so these lockdowns are doing more harm than good.

    if depression has been a problem in society before the lockdowns and resulting economic destruction then just wait and see what will happen when depression is replaced by despair as perfectly healthy people begin to realise that they have no future because of the destruction of the world financial systems. Despair will kill more people than this flu.
     
    madaw1, Oddjob, metalzzz and 4 others like this.
  12. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2013
    Messages:
    1,174
    Likes Received:
    874
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SE QLD
    Govt- "wow, we better put in place total and complete surveillance of the entire population to stop this from happening......afterall, it's for your safety!!!

    but please, carry on your obese lifestyle of drinking, smoking and die of heart problems or diabetes. that would be too hard for us to do something about and wouldn't really let us get away with what we want to impose"
     
    Shaddam IV likes this.
  13. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    Messages:
    7,684
    Likes Received:
    3,494
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    House Corrino
    Yes. At the root of all of this the problem isn't governments, it's individuals. Government reflects the citizenry and the view in the mirror is pretty ugly.
     
  14. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2013
    Messages:
    1,174
    Likes Received:
    874
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SE QLD
    can you imagine us citizens attempting to say, "no, you've gone too far we are not going to put up with the BS any longer."

    all most can think about is their beer after work and who will win the footy.
     
    madaw1, forgedinfire and Shaddam IV like this.
  15. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Messages:
    1,363
    Likes Received:
    208
    Trophy Points:
    63
    So good old wiki tells me that if reported cases are only a fraction of those reported and actual cases are 50-85 X higher on the face of it that sounds very reassuring.
    UNFORTUNATELY if the actual cases are even 85 X higher than reported then we are still only talking about 5% of the population having infection.
    For those not good at math ,that means that 95% of the population are still vulnerable and we are only at the beginning of this pandemic and not the end or the middle.
     
  16. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    9,439
    Likes Received:
    690
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Sir, you are having surgery to remove your foot due to your Type 2 Diabetes, are you concerned?
    Not really but I don't want to catch COVID 19.
    Sir, did you know that a diet high in sugar, fructose and carbohydrate will cause Type 2 Diabetes?
    Yes, I know that, but I don't want to catch that COVID 19, it's nasty.
    Sir, it's nasty if you have underlying health conditions!
    I know that, but it's mostly from poor circulation and heart problems!
    Sir, you have poor circulation, your heart is damaged, you have metabolic syndrome!
    So? I still don't want to catch that nasty flu.
    But Sir, you are the target audience for COVID 19.
    How so?
    FFS, forget it, here's a pack of Cripy Creams, a 2.5L bottle of coke and I'll order you a pan fried meat lovers pizza and to top it off
    a block of cadburys.
    Thanks mate, I hope you don't get the virus.
     
    madaw1, Chris_, Oddjob and 3 others like this.
  17. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,185
    Likes Received:
    974
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    I enjoyed that sad joke. You could replace COVID with anything that distracts from doing something. You can let a horse to water but you cannot make it drink.
     
    Shaddam IV and Holdfast like this.
  18. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2013
    Messages:
    1,174
    Likes Received:
    874
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SE QLD
    as long as the horse is tracked so you know where it has been it's fine.
     
  19. dross

    dross Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2010
    Messages:
    522
    Likes Received:
    177
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Australia
    Actual figures information starts at 6:30 point.
     
  20. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    6,654
    Likes Received:
    1,972
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Figures

     

Share This Page