Coronavirus information for non-alarmists

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by mmm....shiney!, Feb 1, 2020.

  1. milled

    milled Active Member

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    Running with a rough R0 of 2, approximate midpoint of the WHO estimate of 1.4-2.5 (which is probably inaccurate) and with a further assumption of 14 day period from infection to being symptomatic (also likely wrong) and assuming detection correlates about to onset to symptoms (it probably doesn't), then...

    If we are about at the point of 2^15 (32768 cases) and if 60% global infection prevalence translates to 2^32, then there are 17 "doublings" to go before that point, which would mean (17)(14) = 238 days to the time when about 60% of the global population is symptomatic.

    Naturally, that is wildly inaccurate in real life given the likelihood that the R0 is far more complex, the geography of the world, population density, the different climates, the different capacities to hinder or facilitate the spread of the virus, but it gives a temporal reference point, perhaps better applied to densely urban situations where there the spread will evolve unfettered due to conditions on the ground, perhaps like Sao Paolo.
     
  2. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The reports are in 80% of positive cases the infected only suffer a common flu symptoms and recover....

    Just like the super spreader in UK. Basically he had a fever but wasn't concerned, so after taking few aspirins got on a plane from Singapore after the conference, went skiing in France, returned to Brighton UK, saw a Doctor (infected the Doctor) went home and was getting ready for work....when people in hazmat suit came to get him. He was quarantined, tested and released few days later as he was fully recovered
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  3. milled

    milled Active Member

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    If we assume that is true, which must be tempered by known issues such as the fallibility of the test, availability of testing and death before testing, then a 60% global infection would mean about 45% of population would have a flu-like illness. This alone would still have a substantial economic impact from absenteeism.

    There is also the matter of presenteeism, when an infected person comes into a workplace with mild symptoms, but spreads the disease. As we saw with "superspreader" and maybe the HK family hotpot cases, the effects can be substantial even with a mildly infected individual.

    We should also ask if "superspreader" was actually the vector. Maybe he was just another infected person with mild disease.
     
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  4. milled

    milled Active Member

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    ZH is good value atm, hilarious!

    "A genetic analysis of the spike-protein genes – the exact region that was bio-engineered by the UNC lab in 2015, where Zhengli Shi and Xing-Yi Ge previously isolated a batty coronavirus that targets the ACE2 receptor just like this 2019-nCoV strain of the coronavirus does – indicates an artificial and unnatural origins of the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein genes when they are compared to the genomes of wild relatives.

    Instead of appearing similar and homologous to its wild relatives, an important section of the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein region shares the most genetic similarity with a bio-engineered commercially available gene sequence that’s designed to help with immunotherapy research. It is mathematically possible for this to happen in nature – but only in a ten-thousand bats chained to ten-thousand Petri dishes and given until infinity sense.

    And so, as the report goes on, a scientist who’s been prolifically involved with studying the molecular interaction of coronaviruses and humanity, spending decades and millions of dollars, and having even helped build a hyper-virulent coronavirus from scratch at UNC – just so happens to be working at the only BSL-4 virology lab in China that also just so happens to be at the epicenter of an outbreak involved a coronavirus that’s escaping zoological classification and whose novel spike-protein region shares more in common with a commercial genetic vector than any of its wild relatives"

    Maybe they should ask Hillary for her bleachbit recipe :)

    Or is that bleachbat?
     
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  5. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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  6. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    From a non medical professional view, this is what seems to be the case. Unlike in Sars where everyone who got the virus was hospitalised ie very very sick.... In Covid-19 this does not to be the case. In fact people recovering are not on iv etc and are just basically quarantined and when clear allowed to go.

    However as you surmise the fear factor and for those hospitalised the cost to individual economy would be astronomical.
     
  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  8. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  9. milled

    milled Active Member

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    Official numbers so far:
    65,213 confirmed cases. (This puts us at around 2^16....thus if the basic premise of doubling time to symptoms is 2 weeks (and timely diagnosis), then next stop, 2^17 is in 2 weeks, with 131072 cases by Feb 28)
    36,719 hospitalisations
    7,953 critically ill (which might be taken to mean that supplementary oxygen requirements are very high, using delivery systems beyond a simple facemask.)
    3,689 "cured" (there is no known cure though some antiviral combinations may shorten the course but evidence is only weak and emerging, management is mostly supportive)
    1486 dead

    So, using those numbers, which probably are inaccurate, then the critically ill rate is 12.1% That is pretty high and if correct, then should this virus follow the R0=2 exponent, then I'd say in 4 weeks, when we are at 2^18, (262,144 cases and about 32000 critically ill) people will need a new information for alarmists thread on SS.

    Of note, there may be a link to smoking. While it is well known that Chinese like to smoke - with 50% of the male population regular smokers, it was interesting to learn 40% or so of Chinese doctors are smokers. If this is true for hospital doctors, they are in a high risk category for infection due to occupational exposure and smoking status.

    If they get infected, the strain on hospital systems in affected provinces may be immense.
     
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  10. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    3200 die every day in car wrecks. Get a real pandemic.
     
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  11. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This pandemic might actually be positive for the US for people that survive it - it will change the American healthcare industry.
     
  12. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Great analysis,
    One factor I would look at in a different way is "smokers lung", in China everyone has damaged lungs.

    Obviously smoking is bad for the lungs and more smokers get lung cancer but consider 2% of smokers in China are female and have 35% of lung cancers.

    Also the science experiment in the cruise ship sequestered in Japan would suggest it is old lungs that are the main factors.
     
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  13. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Surely we are at the early stages, only takes one sick person who doesn't care at a sporting event or a club in USA or Australia and we will have shit storm too.
     
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  14. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    Probably too alarming for this thread.

    But while the TV was on last night (Channel 9 I believe) I heard them announce a story showing how police were visiting the 1200 self quarantined Corona virus victims in Brisbane.

    Don't quote me. But if that report was true then this is serious.
     
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  15. sodl

    sodl Active Member

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    Whether or not one believes in the corona virus conspiracy , overreaction in the case of health is not a sin. Being non alarmist is not a smart approach !
     
  16. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I am not worried about the 1200 in self quarantine, these 1200 are telling people, being careful and warning people..... rather I am worried about the handful who are walking around sick because either they don't care, don't know or have to work.

    Not everyone can take 14 days off work.
     
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  17. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  18. Jason1

    Jason1 Active Member

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    If this thread is for Non-alarmists imagine what the alarmist thread would look like. lol
    this one already has more paranoia than a David Icke book
     
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  19. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    100% very few post here are alarming, if you want to read alarming news go to the medical forums, some interesting topics include discussions on how did Covid-19 virus infect more medical personal than Avian flu, SARS and MERS combined 20 days after quarantine started.

    Another interesting side thread from above is discussion should all front line staff ie cleaners, security, police etc work in Hazmat suits.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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