Walking the street in the nearest city recently, as an experiment in observation, I saw an old lady coughing her guts up as I walked around the corner. If she had the virus, I would have had no chance. Then, a child did the same thing later on, on the same street, then an old coot. Most people are not educated in the basics of infection control. With a virus with a long latency, the risks logically go up with such a situation. Everything you touch might not be as safe as it was. Then you touch your face, at some stage soon after that cooties find their way to your mucous membranes. Then it is up to your immune system. The opthalmologist that was punished by the CCP for alarmism ended up dead in 2 weeks. If the response of the CCP was blown out of proportion, shutting down about 1/3 of its citizens, we'll all know soon enough. It may be overkill and a storm in a teacup, even Hiroshima in a teacup. I think the issue at this time will be the capacity of Western healthcare to accommodate cases. Beyond that capacity, the virus calls the shots. The immune system angle is interesting. Not something I know much about, but from what I read the lymphocyte count goes right down (as it does in other viral infections) but it stays down for some time with this virus. Then, for whatever reason, some people have a massive inflammatory response in their lungs to the point of respiratory failure. Keys to understanding whether the response is overblown come down to the issue of R0 and doubling time. While absolute numbers look low early on, a short doubling time changes that quickly. The R0 is about 2, as a rough midpoint of the WHO estimate of 1.4-2.5 (it is not likely accurate, but this is for the sake of argument.) So (please adjust if incorrect) if we look at 2 to the power of 15, that's 32768. About where we were a few days ago at 40000. What about 2 to the power of 18, which isn't far off, that's 262144 Now what about 2 to the power of 25 ... 33,554,432. That's 33.5 million. 2 to the power of 27 is over 134.2 million. It's a hop, skip and a jump to modelling 60% global infection from there. (or about 2 to the power of 32) I suspect that's something along the lines of the thinking of the shutdown.