Coronavirus information for non-alarmists

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by mmm....shiney!, Feb 1, 2020.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    For rational players only. Don't bother responding if you're a conspiracy theorists or alarmist. There's no hope for you. You are going to die. You're stupid. Stupidity causes a slow and agonising death.

    Some useful links below.

    Total confirmed cases of coronavirus as of 2/01/20 is 12 037 reported cases with 259 deaths. That's worldwide. Scientists estimate that there are many more unreported cases of infection so the mortality rate of those who do get infected is probably around 1%. SARS mortality rate was around 10%.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    No, hand sanitiser companies did not have advance knowledge of the novel coronavirus outbreak just because they put warning labels on their bottles. These products were tested against other types of coronavirus that cause the common cold.

    https://www.factcheck.org/2020/01/no-clorox-and-lysol-didnt-already-know-about-new-coronavirus/

    There's a Q&A about it here:

    https://www.factcheck.org/2020/01/qa-on-the-wuhan-coronavirus/
     
  2. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I guess the big question is why is the Chinese government going to extreme measures for something that is not much worse than the common flu?
     
  3. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    I would imagine because they are trying to save the planet FROM YET ANOTHER FLU VIRUS.
    I guess they were trying to stop it in its tracks because then it would be gone from existence.
    If we have another NEW flu strain floating around then i guess you can DOUBLE the number of deaths each year in flu seasons?
    So instead of the USA having 17,000-30,000 deaths from flu each year if this takes off they may have 34,000-60,000 deaths each year.
    That would be my guess.
     
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  4. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member

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    I'm wondering why Hollywood hasn't taken advantage of the 'Zombie Apocalypse' movie set opportunities coming out of China.
     
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  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    1% of 1.4 billion is 14 million?
     
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  6. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mortality 1% on Novel Coronavirus was just posted by "mmm....shiney!" In my understanding that is not accurate. The mortality rate is the number of people who get sick and survive vs the number that die. As most people seem to die in week 2 or 3 from the disease we cannot predict mortality until enough people are better. As the infection rate goes exponential that data is not going to be available for a while. As you can imagine rapid growth in infections will dilute the mortality until death rates catch up. This happened with MERS and a mortality rate of 30% was only appreciated late in the epidemic. At this time the information is very uncertain. I am not saying this is a looming apocalypse - no not at all but the information is just not there yet. Even if 1% is right which I doubt, 5-10% will need hospital care including ICU and ventilation how long do you think Australian hospitals can cope ?? Already private hospitals in Aus are issuing notices saying they will not admit or treat patients with this infection.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
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  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mortality rate is 2%. Health experts have assumed that not allcases of sickness are reported so the mortality rate may be as low as 1%.

    No, there is not enough data available yet. But the disease was first reported in early December so we’ve passed the 2 - 3 week period for the earliest cases.
     
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  8. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lets wait and see... you don't fully appreciate the power of exponential growth and exponential death rates. If you can understand in a city like Sydney with 5 million people if 1% die (50,000)and 10% (500,000) need hospital care you will see scenes like this. That is what you are predicting with these optimistic figures if this comes to Australia..remember when numbers are small (early in a disease outbreak) they can get hospital therapy once number are huge few can get care and mortality rates may rise further.

     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
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  9. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    But that can be said with any virus over there, so why only with this are they taking such extreme actions. Either it's not a "relative" big deal or it is.

    Also you can't compare the Coronavirus incomplete numbers with the SARS complete numbers. That's just poorly presented statistics.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2020
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  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No, they are accurately reported statistics as they now stand. The links clearly state that the available information is incomplete at this stage. It's alarmists that want to extrapolate on possibilities that may not even eventuate. That is a poor use of statistics. All health risks are a big deal when they lead to potential loss of life.

    Survival rate so far of all the reported cases is 98%. So that means that well over 11 700 people out of over 12 000 who contracted the virus have survived. Now if you wanted to run a book on whether you'd live or die if you caught the virus the implied probability that you'd survive (using the data that is currently known) is 102%!!! That's some short odds on on dying there. :p
     
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  11. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You're not understanding what I'm saying, I'm not saying the reports aren't accurate. By complete i mean the outbreak has ended, that's the only way you can get the final accurate stats. The SARS numbers are complete.

    Now I'm not suggesting this virus is going to be dooms day, I'm just saying lets wait and see what the final stats show and not speculate either way.

    Also so far no one has given an explanation to why the Chinese government is implementing such extreme measures for this virus on the premise that this virus is no worse than any other. I'm happy to hear all rational reasons that don't involve a conspiracy.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2020
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  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Correct. The statistics are incomplete. At the moment the mortality rate is 2%, and that’s all we know. All we can go on is what we currently know.

    I thought I did. 1% of 1.4 billion people is 14 million people. If you want to take 2% then it’s 28 million people. And as @sterling-nz it’s a new virus, so they’ll want to act quickly. That’s incentive enough in my books.

    Not to mention that’s how Xi Jinping the Pooh does things now.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2020
  13. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Using the site you yourself posted, current statistics are :-

    Total Confirmed : 14,174
    Total Deaths : 304
    Total Recovered : 332

    The way I read this is that of all those cases which were confirmed the disease has only run it's course in 636 cases.
    Assuming those numbers are accurate I fail to see how claims of 1% mortality rate hold any credibility.
     
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  14. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just like to note i started off with the same view as you @mmm....shiney! But as things progressed i was willing to accept maybe there is more to it. Things like China locking down cities, Qantas stopping all flights to China, Apple & Starbucks closing all stores in China etc.. etc... These are not things that normally happen for just another virus.

    Since clearly we don't have all the info, I'm just going to kick back and see what happens.

    The only worry i have atm is should i buy Hakushu Single Malt Whisky, Yamazaki Distiller's Reserve Whisky or Nikka Coffey Grain Whisky? :cool:
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The assumption is made on the premise that not all cases are reported. For example those that show no symptoms or those that show no more than the usual flu-like symptoms.
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You may not have seen that I added a bit more to my previous response to you. It’s the Xi factor now. It’s how he prevents any threat to his power base. China is fucked economically, but as I’ve said in previous threads as long as he can feed and house his people with as minimal disruption to their increasingly affluent lives then he’ll keep a hold on his power.

    When he can’t provide those things then his regime will come under threat.

    I think your strategy is the right strategy. Just keep doing what you normally do.
     
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  17. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Therefore unquantified and unquantifiable. I expected better from you shiney :)

    Using the recorded statistics on that site I could claim that - In all recorded cases of identified infections where the disease has run it's course the mortality rate is 47%

    Yes, that is hyperbolic but it is evidence based.
     
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  18. Aurora et luna

    Aurora et luna Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I will give you a tip!
    The Nikka Coffey grain whisky is not bad, however not worth the current retail price.
    I have tasted better for less
     
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  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’m now liking the direction this thread is going.

    If the next SS meet in Sydney is a whisky bar I’ll do all in my power to get there!! :D
     
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  20. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    There were about 940,000 deaths from AIDS in 2017. The 2015 Global Burden of Disease Study, in a report published in The Lancet, estimated that the global incidence of HIV infection peaked in 1997 at 3.3 million per year.

    Get a grip y'all. Aids has a 100 percent kill rate.
     

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