Contrarian?

JulieW · Feb 22, 2012

I like this man's writings and he's been accurate for quite a while now.
His latest missive.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33237.html

FEAR SELLS, Which is why most of what you read and gravitate towards is fear related and nothing illustrates this more than what I term as the BlogosFear, it is a case of the perpetual crash is coming mantra, which is just the latest manifestation of the age old end of the world prophecies that for some reason the human psyche seems to be fixated upon, perhaps its coded into our genes and is related to our need to be scared into following societies rules which up until quite recently were determined wholly by religious dogma. The fear of what will happen to you AFTER you die if you do not obey your masters. Fear we take notice of and react towards, and focus on, so it is not so surprising that most of the news and commentary is fear related because it is what we seek out to be scared, be it in real life or in movies or in markets.

Fear of recession, depression, economic collapse, financial collapse, war, the end of the world !

Originally, when the stealth bull market in stocks began in March 2009 (Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470), I knew that there would be many fear mongering perma-fools out there who would continue to bet against its existence for many, many months, however I never imagined that this delusional state would still exist near three years on! This is despite the fact that if they had followed their own advice then they would have already bankrupted themselves several times over, still the same overwhelming delusional commentary persists the reason for which I have touched on many times over the past few years but basically it comes down to this, that at least 90% and perhaps as high as 99% of what is written is by those that do not trade or invest, instead it is written by salesmen of one type or another be it a CEO selling his company on CNBC or a an academic selling his theory or a failed trader selling his latest book or service.
In my 25 year+ trading and investing experience, the ONLY mechanism for generating accurate investing and trade scenarios. Whilst many people obsesses over forecasts all we can do is to focus on what is likely to be the most probable scenario against which to measure market price strength or weakness and then REACT accordingly, and the only mechanism that can allow investors and traders to achieve this, to know when one is right or wrong in their scenario / open positions is ones trading account. For if ones scenario is right then one accumulates profits, if one is wrong then one accumulates losses, it's as simple as that and all there in black and white, so one cannot delude oneself that one is right when one is actually wrong as many of these perma-fools have been doing during these past 3 years.

You have to realise that delusions are widespread, everywhere I look I see self delusion, people get themselves into a state of mind on a particular market or trend and then for some season remain perpetually fixated on it. They appear to lack a mechanism to tell them when they are wrong. This explains why academic economics are wrong at least 90% of the time and why journalists are always giving you advice based on looking in the rear view mirror long after the time to act has passed because they have no correcting mechanism to tell them when they are right and when they are wrong. The reality is much worse than that because journalists and economists are PAID to follow a school of thought so there is never any real PAIN associated with being wrong instead readers are treated as amnesia suffering naive fools that will continue to buy FEAR filled trash regardless because as we all know FEAR SELLS.

In economists we see this in the non existant deflation mantra against the reality of an on going Inflation Mega-trend (ebook free download) that has never matched the deflation mantra which amounts to nothing more than economic propaganda that your government wants you to swallow so that it can keep printing money (in all its form) and debasing the currency, which it has to do because that is how it bribes you at election time. This is the primary purpose of Central banks, which is to obey their political masters by ensuring that Governments are able to print money (debt) to buy votes, no matter which party is in power which as most American's should be realising at this precise moment in time because there is very little difference between Red and Blue, Bush and Obama, they are just different shades of colour, the politicians are ALL the SAME. NO politician can get elected unless they are PART OF THE SYSTEM which has its whole basis in the elite getting FIRST CALL ON INFLATION.

Economics as far as the mainstream press is concerned is pure propaganda and nothing more, it has nothing to to do with the real economy, that is not what the politicians want your to read or hear about. Economic statistics in most part exists purely to massage the populations expectations to get them to work for pieces of paper (fiat currency) that is perpetually being devalued by means of money printing.
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Contrarian?

JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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