CML ASE VS PANDAS KOOKS AND LUNAR COINS.

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by 1ozTrOy, Sep 29, 2013.

  1. worldbubble

    worldbubble Active Member

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    that's what pandas do to people :lol:
    yennus buy you drink ... but you buy yennus drinks
    odds are yennus gets more, so be careful! ;)


    the best numiz for me so far are chinese ones ... damn they rise day after day, especially older ones
     
  2. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Heheh... was wondering when someone would notice :)

    Okies, for the record:
    If I'm right, I'll be in a good position to buy you a few drinks if/when we meet.
    If you're right, you'll be in a good position buy me a few drinks if/when we meet.
     
  3. 1ozTrOy

    1ozTrOy New Member

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    That 8 mil mintage is really making it difficult to do the trade. I may trade for 20 pandas and 20 kooks instead if my original plan of 50 panda and 40kooks.
    I bought my cml and ase at above $30 each so I may end up losing big if I trade now.
    It looks like I'm a few yrs behind with the panda series.

    Btw, I've been wanting to buy a half oz gold panda but bought the lunar horse instead.
    Are the gold panda a good investment as well?
    Lookin to buy half oz gold panda and kagaroo next.
     
  4. ivan

    ivan New Member

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    I like the gold panda but not the silver panda, mintage to premium is way too high.
     
  5. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    Yep. Agree. Lots of supply - okay demand = slow increase in premium price. IMHO. I know others feel differently because of the 1 billion Chinese population going on a buying spree of these coins...if so they make a good case. Wonder how we determine how many of the 8 mill will be sold in 2013?
     
  6. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    By the way, a case and point. I bought 120'ish oz of the 2006 kooks from Apmex at the time when they were selling for about 33'ish. I think the Pandas were about the same price. I'm selling just one of the 2006's right now on eBay, and with 3 hours left, I'm at 51.00 on the bid. There are only 87,000 of these coins,which means only 87,000 complete sets can ever be finished. What happens in 20 plus years and new folks get into the collecting market or the perth decides to cap the series in 2020, and begin a new one....just speculating now...all I'm saying is this is why I'm a bigger fan of the kooks, especially older kooks you can at a good price...and yes, 35'ish is still a rocking price for mintage numbers that range from 100k - 200k...and they are out there...you have to hunt around! :)

    Here is a case and point: 1992, with a mintage number of 219,000 is selling for about 31'ish. Great price. IMHO.

    http://www.apmex.com/product/10157/1992-1-oz-silver-australian-kookaburra
     
  7. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I wouldn't use mintage size alone as a good predictor of future returns. There are many numismatic series that haven't done well, and their mintages are in the 1000s - yet they are selling for less than their release prices (E.g. The Australian Masterpieces in Silver).

    Same with the Kooks - 500,000 might sound small compared against 8,000,000 but it fails to consider the likely potential collector base.

    The likely potential collector base is in my view a better determinant of future price appreciation than mintage.

    Many people in the world can easily collect Pandas (and they do).
    But at least 1.4 billion are not likely to invest/collect Kooks (and they don't).

    If you consider the performance of the 2012 Pandas, just released last year - these are already performing very well - and already starting to move independent of spot - despite having a large mintage.
     
  8. eyeball

    eyeball New Member

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    Agreed, I see 2012 Pandas going for above spot on e*ay right now, slabbed for 80-100
     
  9. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A couple of things to note (imho): :)

    a) final mintage for the Kooks is 500,000 - that is massive relative to its collector base.
    b) if there was a substantial collector base, we would have seen large premiums on the Kooks by now
    i) E.g. the 1992 Kook goes for about $31AUD/USD while thee 1992 Panda goes for $170AUD/USD (OMP) to $407AUD/USD (with a mintage of about 120,000).
     
  10. 1ozTrOy

    1ozTrOy New Member

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    I guess I can get a little of both for now if I can close a couple of trade deals. It will only be for 2013 panda and kooks and 2014 kooks for my cml ase and stackers.
     
  11. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    I guess the point is, if I buy a 1992 panda for 170.00 vs. a 2006 at 33.00 dollars, I'll take my chances on the 2006 bringing in a bigger return percentage wise longer-term, and I get nearly 6 2006's for your one panda. I guess we need to check back in, in about 15 years and see which coin is the bigger winner based on today's market price, and where it will be then (and don't forget, I bought 6 of the 2006's for your one 1992). Talk to you in 2028. hehehe.
     
  12. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Are those 2006 coins Pandas or Kooks?

    If they are Kooks, I would still think a 1992 Panda would likely perform better over 15 years. :)
     
  13. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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  14. purple88

    purple88 New Member

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    Besides being beautiful coins Pandas and Kooks are highly popular because the coin changes every year. It gives people a reason to collect and drives interest in the coin series thus we see strong price appreciation. Which is perfect for a modern semi-muni coin. ASE, CML, Libertads same coin every year. Who cares if you have a 2002 or a 2008... same coin. All of these coins for 2013 are relatively close in initial purchase price so what would you buy? There quite a few semi-numis that change each year so get a variety.

    They can mint 20 mil Pandas for 2014. I'll still buy a sheet.
     
  15. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    Amen to that...but I'll pass on the spottd 'gazillion' Pandas. :) and take the nice, crisp, shiny kooks. hehehe
     
  16. 1ozTrOy

    1ozTrOy New Member

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    I decided not to trade up to pandas and kooks. However, I will stack pandas, kooks and lunars onwards. I have to admits, pandas and kooks are 2 of the very best looking coins on the market.
    Thanks for all the replies.
    Much appreciated.
     
  17. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    Hey, you did your DD, and decide to of what is best for you. Kudos! I'm sure it would have cost a bit in coins to buy the 'upgrade.' I think it was a wise move.
     
  18. 1ozTrOy

    1ozTrOy New Member

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    Thanks ber, what's DD btw?

    Does the gold panda hold the premium down the road as well? I'm thinking of getting a 1 oz 2013.
     
  19. Justfishin

    Justfishin New Member

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    Due diligence
     
  20. purple88

    purple88 New Member

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    If you can get a decent price augment your collection with some gold Pandas. Mintage is minuscule. The older the better too. As the Chinese collector base grows and matures, as well as the rest of the world, these will be in super high demand. Price goes up. Jump on them now. IMHO.
     

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