China Devaluation

Discussion in 'Currencies' started by JulieW, Sep 18, 2018.

  1. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  2. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    China won’t have to devalue.

    Foreign investors of Yuan denominated debt or who have bought shares reparatritung will drive Yuan down.

    Non government Yuan devaluation will negate any tariffs less than 10%

    One has to remember China is buyer of US denominated bonds and seller of Yuan debt.

    Of course some private companies borrowed cheap USD but unlike Western governments, Chinese governement have been active the last five years as in forcing these companies unwind their positions. Remember all those headline “Buggest Chinese purchases” being abruptly stopped and Chinese CEOs becoming silent and or disappearing for weeks
     
  3. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    "One has to remember China is buyer of US denominated bonds and seller of Yuan debt."

    Don't think so, you had better check that again, seems they have been selling U.S. Bonds for the last year or so. _JLG.
     
  4. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/index.aspx
    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx#1
    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticarchives.aspx
    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticfaq2.aspx#q11
    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/ticsec.aspx

    China, Mainland
    Jan 2007 353.6
    Jan 2008 492.6
    Jan 2009 739.6
    Jan 2010 889.0
    Jan 2011 1154.7
    Jan 2012 1159.5
    Jan 2013 1214.2
    Jan 2014 1273.5
    Mar 2014 1272.1
    Dec 2014 1244.3
    May 2015 1270.3
    Aug 2015 1270.5
    Dec 2015 1246.1
    May 2016 1244.0
    Jun 2016 1240.8
    Jul 2017 1166.0
    Jun 2018 1171.0

    And to further decreasing selectivity:

    Month Year GrandTotal (BillionUSD)

    Dec 1999 1244.9
    Dec 2001 1042.0
    Aug 2002 1101.6
    Jan 2003 1240.4
    Jan 2004 1576.7
    Jan 2005 1960.3
    Jan 2006 2187.6
    Jan 2007 2239.7
    Jan 2008 2402.5
    Jan 2009 3072.2
    Jan 2010 3706.1
    Jan 2011 4453.4
    Jan 2012 5048.0
    Jan 2013 5643.0
    Jan 2014 5841.3
    Nov 2014 6112.4
    Feb 2015 6162.8
    Jun 2016 6281.0
    Jul 2017 6250.3
    Jul 2018 6251.6

    You better check the world instead of that Zerohedge scam site.
    Just some friendly advice.
     
  5. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    CNY just dropped again against the USD, now at 7.14. That's over a 10% swing from its lows last year. This will be making a lot of companies that borrowed USD's in China start to panic.

    Well Trump said the tariffs will not be passed onto the US consumers, as the devaluation will compensate for that. The only ones hurting will be the Chinese people.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019
  6. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    China wants a lower yuan, as can be seem by the government withdrawal of support and letting it drop.
    Lower Yuan means less purchase of foreign goods and services by the local Chinese and cheaper Chinese made goods for export.

    External debt
    External debt USA $21 trillion
    External debt China $2 trillion

    Chinese gdp is $12 trillion
    USA gdp is $22 trillion

    As for Chinese people hurting due to currency.... it’s is totally exaggerated consider that few years ago AUD = USD and now 1 AUD = 67 cents USD, has the currency droppedmdestroyed Australia?

    Also consider no news report of factories closing in China
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019
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  7. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes they want a low currency, but not too low as that creates unwanted instability. China has a lot of control to lower their currency, but not as much control to bring it up if it starts dropping too much.

    Size of the debt is less important then how the debt is structured. Also who knows how much debt China really has.

    You're comparing two different systems, so not relevant.

    Don't worry you will hear it all at once when the flood gates open.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019
  8. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    BHAbhabhahhhaaa why would I worry lol.
     
  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You will worry when the US no longer has the ability to contain Japan. If the US can't contain Japan, no country in the world can contain Japan.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019
  10. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Why would you take it literally lol :p
     
  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    a lot of the posting not making cents

    Iran FM Zarif arrives as surprise guest in G7 venue Biarritz for nuclear deal talks
    [​IMG]

    at Osaka Abe met Xi at undisclosed location away from Trump
    then we have Abe visited Iran
    now at the G7, Zarif smiling with Macron
     
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  12. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    China is rejecting higher Yuan, does not mean they are in favor of lower Yuan
    you can see what happen with higher Yen the last time, 30-40 years of not getting anywhere economy
    It could only mean, they want a higher GOLD price in USD, like $10,000 per ouch :)
    then what will happen with their USD reserves ??? nothing to worry about, since there is a guarantee backed by the income stream from the income tax
     
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  13. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Japanese economy any worse than 40 years ago?
    Japan gdp 1980 $1 trillion US dollar
    Japan gdp 2018 $5 trillion US dollar

    they can afford tuna :)

    As for gold lol....
     
  14. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I am not sure that Japan would go out trying to invade other countries again, they tried to take Australia during WW2 and bombed Pearl Harbour specifically to get the US pacific fleet out of the picture so that they could take this land mass. Before the war the Japanese pearling fleets operating on Australia's north and western coasts were carefully mapping the coastline in preparation. But times are different now, Japan has an ageing population and it's youth are like those of China and Western countries - Millennials who would be useless in an army. Not so easy to raise a large, motivated fighting force any more.
     
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  15. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    1980 1 T USD = 213 TYen
    2018 5x T USD= 525 TYen

    in Yen term, its just 2.5x and not 5 x
    just like the rubber band measuring meter
     
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  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    sorry for the language, but infected people can kill people real good..no intention of making the old folks do such a thing
     
  17. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    History doesn't repeat itself exactly, but historically, Japan was a military first country. In fact, the Japanese society and culture is regimented, even so today, and is very suited for the military. Sure, Japan won't invade other countries for no reason, but Japan will defend itself if the US withdraws.

    Towards the end of the Tokugawa Shogunate, Japan was in fact a docile country, having had many centuries of peace. The ruling class, the samurais were living very comfortable lives, not quite unlike the millennials today, very few in fact have ever engaged in a real fight with the sword. Everyone was contented and life simply continued as it is in a regimented manner.

    What happens next, everyone knows, the American gunboats forced open the Japanese society and the rest was history. When threatened, the Japanese will react and there's a tendency to go to the extreme. This time round, it maybe the Chinese that wakes up the sleeping samurai.
     
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  18. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree. I think that Japan has not been idle in putting it’s high IQ population onto the issues of defence, no doubt that have been secretly developing all kinds of strategies and exotic equipment to deal with China if it ever comes down to a fight. I don’t doubt that Japan has teeth and claws when it comes to self defence and that if China were to attack Japan they will get a nasty surprise. Not easy for any foreign country to place spies inside such a closely integrated culture as the Japanese have, it’s not like the USA where Chinese have infiltrated everything.
     
  19. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I sure hope they have some high tech tricks up their sleeve as I'm not sure about Japan's ability to even successfully defend itself (even with the US's help) for a few reasons.

    Post WWII, Japan was war weary, it's industry destroyed and many of their military dead thus military experience and culture diminished / near wiped out. The US disarmed and pacified Japan under specific policy to ensure they never could threaten anyone else again and enshrined same in their constitution etc. The US rebuilt Japan and those Japanese who survived (of all ages) became focused on helping rebuild Japan. Yes, the Japanese are very disciplined in what they do and how they conduct themselves, but there has been no ruling military class (ie Tojo and co) running Japanese politics / culture as there was pre WWII, thus trying to build a fighting force of size and effectiveness today would be hard due to population demographics and a populous not indoctrinated to fight as past generations.

    If China launched an invasion of Japan, the Chinese have at their disposal 94 million men aged 15-24 and another 320m aged 25-54, thus from sheer weight on numbers (if only 25% were able to fight), they could not be resisted in a conventional war. The US's involvement (if conventional) would be ineffectual as whilst they have boots on the grounds across Asia inc Japan, their fleet would be sitting ducks, and the Pacific is large and takes time to move men and equipment. Projecting large scale power takes time. Thus I hope Japan does have some high tech like force fields, DEW's whatever Si-fi etc as China could walk in whenever they want.

    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/china-population/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

    The only thing I think that keeps China in check is that in the last 50-60 years they have fought with most countries on their border, thus if China tried something on with Japan, then China risks fighting on multiple fronts as I think those neighbors would jump right in as they could be next if they didn't. Minority races in China may also rise up against Beijing.

    I heard someone joking that Japan being "Japan", they would build some 100 foot tall Samurai robots to fend off the baddies.

    [​IMG]

    Maybe not all that farfetched. I remember watching RoboTech in the mid 80's. Maybe a glimpse into the future back then.

     
  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If you look at history, Han China had been losing wars continuously in the last 2000 years. Contrary to common belief that China has no territorial ambition, China had in fact tried to expand its territory many times to the south and east but failed.

    China had tried to conquer Korea many times without success. In comparison, Japan was able to conquer the whole of Korea at least twice without much difficulty. During the Sui Dynasty, the Sui emperor raised a huge army of 1 million to invade Gurgoyeo (the former North Korea) only to fail and collapse soon after. The entire population of Gurgoyeo is probably only about 3 million at that time, including women, elderly and children. The Tang Dynasty tried to do the same but also failed.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019

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