Looking pretty strong medium/long term. Missed the dip at 79c unfortunately. Strong Revinue and NPAT growth. End of the week close at 98c. Thoughts?
Yeah it oversold based on new lending regulations, unfortunately I didn't have the dry powder to throw on it. Another to watch at the moment is Silver Chef (SIV). Not really the kind of business I would normally buy into but the price not to mention the P/E ratio and dividend is mighty tempting.
(SIV) Took quite a hit I see. Am I being realistic by predicting $1.60 on CCV by the end of the first half of 2014 if not, sooner?
On the daily chart you have a hammer candle today that 'theoretically' could be topping off the uptrend. Called a 'hanging man' in this scenario. Low volume signifies doubt? The indecisive short range candles that precede today add to the picture. The daily momentum has reached overbought levels. It has gone up hard. Could be ready to retrace a bit of the rally? Scrap that view if sellers get filled and buyers come on to push it over $1 (see 3 mthly chart) I have CCV as a possible buy, but I'm keeping in mind that it is still within the bounds of a downtrend in the bigger picture. CCV had a peak in April followed by its trough in June, followed by a lower peak in September, then a lower trough in December (see second chart) Lower highs, lower lows - that's 'technically' a downtrend despite the rally of the last month. If you put a ruler across the peaks of April and September you get a notional downtrend resistance line (need at least 3 touches for a true trend line) and the current price is miles away from challenging that downtrend line yet. The 75c in Dec might have been the major low, but there's been no higher low yet to give a little confirmation. My own approach will be to wait. If it goes over $I it would remove a doubt but I still won't buy. If it reverses and retraces far enough I might buy a few. Only interested if cheaper. Motley Fool's 'Hidden Gems' tip sheet reaffirmed a BUY on CCV as recently as Dec 18th. They first recommended it June 28th 2013 at $1.10. Scott Phillips wrote that regulation could actually benefit CCV because it raises the barrier to entry for rivals, and compliance costs will break more marginal competitors. Also believes the company has been buying out some of its Australian franchisees pretty cheaply. Likes prospects of UK expansion. Don't know what they think about the law suit. I hesitate to throw in Skaffold's valuation, but while they see it as overpriced for FY14, they see a 1.07 intrinsic value FY15, and 1.18 i.v for FY16. Just 3 analysts inputting earnings estimates however, and knowing Skaffold as I now do, they will be stale estimates that might not have taken account of recent developments. Pretty close consensus between 3 analysts. Skaffold rates CCV as an 'A' quality business with a performance recently that has been fair to good. CCV 3 MTHLY CCV 2 YRLY
I think you may be correct about a turn to take it back under 90c, maybe I jumped the gun too quickly at 98c but we will see how we go.
I wasn't too worried with no movement in the SP today as the All Ords ended in the red. Let's hope they can announce another couple stores being opened to bump up the SP
I bought in at 98c. If you look at the chart (max chart) You can see where I put the red diagonal line, the chart has gone up 25c, down 32c. Then it has gone up 10c and back down 48c. It just finished going back up 20 cents so to me it seems like it is heading back down to 50c-75c in my opinion. Now to me I don't want to see it go back to 50ish unless I sell out now. I will be holding this long term. CCV international just acquired a 25% equity interest in the NZ enterprise and is expected to acquire 100% within the next 5 years. CCV has potential growth as it brings promising results in terms of NPAT and Revenue year after year after year. I hold, just my 2c worth.
That's a pretty unusual way of taking measurements - not that that rules it out. If using 'measuring sticks', I would take major pivot points, not somewhere in between. For example, the last down move would be from 1.32 in September to .75 in December, or a move of .57 I think it would be hard to make a judgement as to whether the best target would be 50c, 75c, or higher at this time because the evidence isn't in yet. Is the 'major' downtrend from April still in effect, or has the bottom been made at 75c? 'Technically' it's really a gamble buying when you did and remains a gamble until the next low is made. At least it's a gamble on what seems a high quality stock though and there's the dividends.
