Buy platinum?

Discussion in 'Platinum' started by possum, Aug 30, 2012.

  1. GoldCash

    GoldCash New Member

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    Like everyone else in this thread, I also think that platinum has good upside potential in the long term.
    Transaction cost should always be a consideration in an investment though: It's better to make 50% than 40% (or if you've made a bad call, better to lose 10% than 20%).
     
  2. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree but don't let the 10% short term potential loss dissuade you from investing and thereby losing out on a 200% gain.
     
  3. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Had you bought Pt this past week and not worried about the few % margin you would be much better off today ? The margin is irrelevant in a secular bull market and Pt is so undervalued!!!

    As I noted previously the mining strikes and fall in production will take 4-6 months to hit supply as the refining process is lengthy. Watch next year ! when shortfalls are evident.
     
  4. Sargeant Argent

    Sargeant Argent New Member

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    i think silver outperformed platinum this week looking for a swap for ag to pt when its at 45-1 including premium. Hopefully soon.
     
  5. REDBACK

    REDBACK Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Went deep into palladium in OZ at one point,over a two year period they were the hardest things to liquidate.Absolute dogs.
    Though i have favoured Palladium for a while the market in Oz does not appreciate its potential.
    Holdings were Pamp bars and PM proofs-both difficult to move.

    REDBACK
     
  6. GoldCash

    GoldCash New Member

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    Not necessarily.
    Pt increased by 2.5% in Au$ this past week. Where can you get physical platinum with a buy/sell spread of 2.5%? On the other hand if you bought shares in ETF Securities Physical Platinum (transaction cost of 12$ for 2 trades) you'd be doing great.

    But I know we're not talking about trading it on a weekly basis, however the point still stands that it is a disadvantage to buy any investment that has a high transaction cost. It always lowers your profit or increases your loss.

    The margin is not irrelevant. It's not as important IF there is no other option and there is a high probability you will make a good gain, but not irrelevant.

    I agree with you on the supply problems and that it is undervalued. I think, though, that we may have panic and turmoil in the markets in the next couple of years which can cause even undervalued investments to still go way lower. I hope I'm wrong on that, and would still like to start building up a stake in Pt slowly in case I am.
     
  7. GoldCash

    GoldCash New Member

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    You're right!
    Platinum vs silver was down about 3% in the past week.


    [​IMG]
     
  8. GoldCash

    GoldCash New Member

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    That is my concern. If you are fortunate/smart enough to hold a non-liquid investment when the price has ramped up and is starting to drop, you can easily chase the price right back down again trying to sell it. Every time you drop your sale price a bit you find that the market price has dropped too.
    Eventually you sell it at a big discount, and Murphy's law will ensure that the market price immediately bounces. :/
     
  9. Sargeant Argent

    Sargeant Argent New Member

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    I fully intend to aquire pt one day but it will be through gains made in ag or au. I cannot afford to drop 1700 at one time on pms I buy in small incriments as often as I can afford. Pt has huge potential but difficulty in procuring sizes below 1 oz make it an item Id prefer to trade via ratio rather than purchase. If I made good money itd be a different story and Id be buying pt maples like theres no tomorrow ! ;)
     
  10. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Sargent Argent
    A few years ago I bought up some 150 Balboa Pt coins that are 0.29 oz. They are probably not easy to find. Until the Perth Mint recently adopted its wonderful policy of melting coins sold back to it, there was a reasonable supply of Pt Koala fractionals. The only problem was the Perth Mint is so overpriced. Occasionally, at auctions or at bullion dealers you can pick 1/2 or 1/4 oz Koalas. New coins I agree - its hard to find coins less than 1oz.
    Cheers
     
  11. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi GoldCash

    You confuse me ? We agree that supply of Pt ore is dicey and production falling. 85% of Pt is mined in Southern Africa and there is no other supply in the foreseeable future. Problems there are far from fixed and remain fluid. Pt from Canada, USA, Australia and Russia are a drop in the bucket. We agree that unlike gold or Ag, refining is slow 6months + and therefore we are going to see shortages in the second quarter next year from March/ April. Assuming that the world does not go into free fall next year this is going to impact the market. No such supply issues are true for gold and silver. Palladium supply is also a bit uncertain as the Russians do produce a fair amount (40%) and keep their supply volumes secret.

    On this we agree and there is no doubt that in a metals market, even one manipulated, a severe shotage is going to put upward pressure on prices. Most SS are praying for such an event in Silver but we are not there yet. Pt on the otherhand is here and shortages are around the corner. So yes in such a situation current premiums are not a major issue. This is a crisis in slow motion and we have not yet seen the impact on the refined Pt supply. It is coming so buy Platinum if you are looking for a medium term investment? and your chance of big returns are high. If you are looking to trade go for Black on Roulette there is a 49% chance you will double your cash today.

    We also agree on accumulating Pt as you are doing. I am not for 1 second telling people to go all in, but I am telling them to consider a small purchase in Pt and dont only focus on Au or Ag. I dont care if Pt falls on Monday these are just normal movements - next year the tide will change and I believe Pt will outperform Au and Ag. Just my opinion. Take it or leave it.
     
  12. GoldCash

    GoldCash New Member

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    I think your assessment of the situation is sensible, logical and rational (More sensible, logical and rational than the the markets sometimes are in the short term.)

    Remember though that there are two sides to the value coin: Supply and demand.
    Maybe Jim Rogers is right and that even if the world economy slums as he expects, supply will decrease faster than demand.
    Maybe Mark Faber is right and that the weakness in industrial metals is telling us of a coming major recession with asset prices dropping 20% or more.

    The 2009 low in USD was 52% below the current price and maybe it could retract to those levels or lower again. However I suspect that stock levels in 2009 (following the ramp-up in price in 2008) were higher than now (do you have figures on that?), and I lean more to your view.

    +1

    We do agree that Pt has medium term upside, it's just how to invest in it that's under debate. For reasons of liquidity, spread and ability to buy in dips easily I think I will do that via ETF Securities Physical Platinum shares.

    Or "invest" in the lotto ;)
    But I do see a similarity between the casino and investing where there is a significant transaction cost: Even if you win fairly often, it's almost always the house that comes out on top in the end.
     
  13. GoldCash

    GoldCash New Member

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  14. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Another option is to wait until Monday/Tuesday. There may be a pullback and then have a chat to Ossie (Bullion Money). Sometimes he comes up with a realy good price for Pt.
     
  15. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Anyone notice what is happening to the prices of the Pt metal group especially palladium ? It's nearly back to $700.
     
  16. BlackSheep

    BlackSheep Active Member Silver Stacker

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    ssshhhhh - they're in stealth mode ;) :p
     
  17. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm looking forward to the 2013 Platinum Platypus which is going to be released January 2013.
    The design of the Platypus by Natasha Muhl is a ripper.

    Each Platypus coin is struck 4 times; they look amazing. :)


    PS

    I hope Perth sell them on their bullion web-site.


    [​IMG]

    [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3MtqBSd3w0[/youtube]
     
  18. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold - Platinum = $78 and falling......
     
  19. Sargeant Argent

    Sargeant Argent New Member

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    if i had 1650 to spend on metal right now itd no doubt be a platinum maple. Unfortunately the lack of fractionals and the massive premiums for sizes below 1 oz. I have thought of doing an ag to pt swap but the sideways movement in silver has prevented the ratio from getting to a point where Id come out ahead.
     
  20. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    lets hope everyone took advantage of this drop (knockdown or whatever) and bought at least 1 oz of Pt....
     

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