Discussion in 'Gold' started by aelmsu, Jul 18, 2019.
Buy more Gold?
Why gold could reach highs of $25,000 - Pierre Lassonde Published on 19 Sep 2019.
Countless semi-experts slam us with gold peak figures. I've heard 10,000 $, 50,000 $, 100,000 $.
Guesswork, wishful thinking, PM folklore and a lot of delirium.
No-one knows. It's the greatest mystery: how high will it go.
But what I'd be a lot more curious to know: how do we know BEFORE the peak so that we could make a massive sale?
And how long will gold stay at the peak?
"But what I'd be a lot more curious to know: how do we know BEFORE the peak so that we could make a massive sale?"
Get out of REAL MONEY & buy what, paper & digits?
Better: BUY PROPERTY
I’d be wary of buying property right now. I’m in a position where I’m ready to put a deposit down for my first home, but I’m staying on the sidelines because I believe a significant correction is coming to the property market when the recession arrives. People my age (I’m only in my early 30’s) dived head first into the bubble, and bought up $800K+ homes with only 5% deposits and low variable rates, and they’re finding it a struggle right now because of inflation (and poor budgeting). A couple are already into negative equity!
I’m thinking there’ll be a lot of fire sales going on once the recession really bites and people are out of work and have absolutely no way to pay their obscene mortgages. Interesting times indeed.
Yes, I know the correction is coming. What do you think: is this a good time to sell property, hold the fiat money and buy after the correction?
Or will money become worthless?
This is a great dilemma.
Yep, you have time on your side, wait it out for a really good fire sale deal. Use the time to really get to know areas that you like and the sale prices trends and what's happening at the auctions (go to them), and you'll be poised to snap up a bargain when you see it.
Easy, NOW is before the peak.
The trick is knowing when to cash out into something else.
Yep, that’s exactly the plan! I certainly don’t feel the need to keep up with the Joneses and rush into the market right now, short term sacrifice = long term prosperity. I’ve got a couple of target markets, unfortunately I can’t attend the auctions because they’re interstate and I work every single weekend
A bonus of waiting it out... more time to build both the deposit amount (it’s around 20% now) and my PM stash!
I have been involved with PM's for a very long time. I remember someone selling his house in Ryde (Sydney) in 2005 to go all in to metals. How has that worked out for him? It is a VERY risky proposition to sell your main residence to invest in PMs in my opinion!
As Ozcopper alluded too, going all in on one single area is a very risky proposition! All you have to do is look at all the people who went all in on PM’s around 2011... 8 years later and they’re still a long way behind. The general consenus by old school financial planners is 10% of your wealth in PM’s (almost all of that being in gold), personally I’m sitting more than 10% because of the economic climate. But I would never go all in.
may be now is about time to show hands, empty the bank accounts too etc ...all individual case by case basis
I agree on not selling the main residence, but 2011 is very different from today. Properties were dirt cheap in 2011. It's the same case of human tendency to buy expensive and sell what is cheap.
Back in 2011, properties were cheap so people buy gold/silver. Today it's the reverse, property are expensive while silver is cheap (although not exactly dirt cheap after the run up).
I prefer to hold physical Gold and like many, it's a bit expensive to stack for me! I started dollar cost averaging my Gold purchases here in the USA with Provident Metals DGGold (Digital Gold). I buy fractional amounts as low as 1/100th of an oz around the intra-day lows for spot or on down days altogether to be routinely purchasing at the lowest price i can. Once you accumulate a target weight in D.G. you can call them to redeem for physical. I don't know if something similar is offered in Australia but I am really digging this way to stack small fractional amounts when i can.
Now is a long time before the peak. And I think my feeling is right. There's a long way up.
Gold is slipping down there. At around 1,400 $ is a critical buying opportunity - it might sink lower, 1,300-1,320 $ would be nice, but I think October will be the next good bearish environment. It will be a small bear. Don't expect a grizzly.
(I bet the graph below will be invisible... for some odd technical reason...)
Of course it's invisible. Well, use your imagination
Well, the correction happened in Oct and Nov. Still on for further downward movement through Dec/Jan, as per your technical analysis?
It usually goes up in January, so brace yourself!
Looks like most of the correction is over. Underwhelming to be honest.
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