Building a Gold Stocks Portfolio

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by mmm....shiney!, May 31, 2021.

  1. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm no expert, but will give it a go from my knowledge.
    Cut-off grades vary depending on geology, depth, overburden etc.
    I looked at the MTC results for hole 16, and the lowest cut-offs are quoted as "optimal open pit cut-offs", so are the cut-offs for best-case open pit mining.
    You will notice the cut-offs for each interval gets higher as the interval gets deeper - more over-burden removal means mining is more costly.
    The deepest section of this hole (>100m) has quoted cut-off of 1g/t, which I assume is because it will require more costly underground mining to retrieve.


    @PMCollector is right.... the results are smeared. If the numbers are broken down the results become a little less outstanding than the announcement would like you to believe.
    Here is my interpretation:

    Taking hole 16 as the example, the total hole depth is 127m @ 5.31 g/t (average). That is equal to 674 gram meters (127 x 5.31) for the entire hole.

    The 1m intersection at 584 g/t = 584 gram meters. Thus, 87% of the gold strike lies in a single meter of intersection, which is located 40m below surface.
    Similarly, the 2m intersection at 13.94 g/t = 27.9 gram meters constitutes 4% of the strike, but lies at 106 meters deep.

    So, this means 91% of the gold lies within 2 very thin intersections located at 40m and 106m.

    The remaining 9% of the gold lies in the remaining 124m band. This remaining band holds the left over 62 gram meters (674 - 584 - 28 = 62). If you average out the grade of this remainder (62/124 = 0.5 g/t).
    You will notice that this grade of 0.5g/t is exactly what MTC quoted as optimal open pit cut-off grade (coincidence?). You have to ask how economically the deepest sections of this band can be mined (if at all)?.

    But there are 3 more kickers (red flags?):

    1. This announcement is nothing but a reiteration of past results.... a fluff announcement using sensational headlines (usually a warning sign to me).
    2. Hole 16 is the best result of all the holes, so are the remaining holes indicating an economically sub-par ore structure on average?
    3. This caveat:
    mtc.jpg
    This tells me that not only is the average of the grade lesser quality than hole 16, but all are again diluted by the drilling angle which has magnified (to an unknown extent) all the gram meter results for every hole. Double whammy.

    Not vey exciting results to me.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2021
  2. PMCollector

    PMCollector Active Member

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    ^ great analysis and agree that results not very exciting..It's also reflected in the chart; news out on the 1st with catchy headline, gapped up, strong price rejection on massive volume - so, basically we can assume old holders selling the news and huge amount of news holders now becoming trapped volume, whoever has money in this may have to wait a long time for this to digest unless a follow up announcement comes that changes the action.
    Screen Shot 2021-06-04 at 9.31.27 pm.png
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member

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    The "SS Brains Trust" of @wrcmad and @PMCollector confirmed my suspicions of MTC so it's gooooone! I ran some numbers on AWJ and it's really speccie, needs a lot more drill holes and a lot more real estate to even look like being economic, remains in the list at the moment because of the team behind it and it's plans to buy more ground.

    When I get time I'll try and run the ruler over NME and KAI as well, unless someone else wants to chime in.

    The above are price ranges I'd be looking to see some indication of a reversal.
     
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  4. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I like WAF. Good to see in your No.1 as well. I have a substantial holding from 40c and am hoping to exit around $1.50 for a near-4-bagger.
    PRU is another of my main goldie-holdings. I like the growth story.
    EVN and GOR need caution IMHO..... I don't hold.
    Between the lines ...... Mike is legendary and has made me a bundle over the last 18 months, including the CDV T/O. For 6 bucks a month, my return has been better than any crypto you could dream of. :p
     
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  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member

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    They weren't my recommendations remember, just copied from a Stockhead article. I did chuck in EMR though. :)
     
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