Betting on a liberal win in September this year

Discussion in 'Other Investments' started by shilly20, Mar 12, 2013.

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  1. shilly20

    shilly20 Member

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    Most Aussie betting agencies have the libs at 1.13 mark I got in a week ago at 1.17.....not a bad one I think for 6 months better than what the banks are currently offering.
     
    shilly20, Mar 12, 2013
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  2. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Less risky than the banks too.
     
    wrcmad, Mar 12, 2013
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  3. Roswell Crash Survivor

    Roswell Crash Survivor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And I thought I was the only one who noticed. I've been treating that particular proposition bet as a term deposit with rate of variable interest.

    Expect some violatility with the odds if any scandals/gaffes emerge, especially as we get closer to Sept.

    Plus, winnings from wagers are not liable for income tax as they are classified as 'windfall gains'.
     
    Roswell Crash Survivor, Mar 12, 2013
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  4. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The first thing Gillard has given me without taxing it. :)
     
    wrcmad, Mar 12, 2013
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  5. madcowinc

    madcowinc Member

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    Who are you betting with? - mine currently 1.13.
     
    madcowinc, Mar 13, 2013
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  6. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sportsbet currently paying 1.16 for coalition win.
    That equates to a better than 27% annualised return - tax free.

    Other interesting propositions:

    Paying 1.62 that greens win zero house of rep seats. That could be good value if other people think like me - only Brandt has to lose his seat and its a winner (106% annualised return).

    Paying 7.00 that the coalition take control of the senate - seems good value to me (1028% annualised return)
     
    wrcmad, Mar 13, 2013
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  7. madcowinc

    madcowinc Member

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    Thanks for the tips - will place some later this arvo. Don't think the Greens will hold as Libs won't pref them again.
     
    madcowinc, Mar 13, 2013
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  8. Nedsnotdead

    Nedsnotdead Active Member Silver Stacker

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    What's labour paying? Surely 100 to 1
     
    Nedsnotdead, Mar 13, 2013
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  9. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    4.75.

    What is interesting is that Gillard being leader is at 1.85, while Rudd is nearly even with her at 2.00.
     
    wrcmad, Mar 13, 2013
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  10. Roswell Crash Survivor

    Roswell Crash Survivor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As a seasoned current events gambler, I'll offer the following advice:

    Bet on the result that you rationally think will happen, and not what you emotionally want to happen.
     
    Roswell Crash Survivor, Mar 13, 2013
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  11. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think you are 100% correct.
    Sports betting odds is usually a a fairly accurate collective opinion of the population, and odds should be heeded.

    In this case, it would suggest (barring some unforeseen cockup) that the Coaslition is an absolute shoe-in for the house of reps, but not so much the senate.
     
    wrcmad, Mar 13, 2013
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  12. errol43

    errol43 New Member Silver Stacker

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    What price a recession in the next three years irrespective of who wins the next federal election?

    Regards Errol 43
     
    errol43, Mar 13, 2013
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  13. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Too late to bet. At least it is in Vic.
     
    Eureka Moments, Mar 13, 2013
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  14. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    and SA and Tas.
     
    JulieW, Mar 13, 2013
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  15. hawkeye

    hawkeye New Member Silver Stacker

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    Hopefully this doesn't derail the thread but I just had a thought regarding this.

    I wonder how many times the favourite in any particular betting scenario does win.

    Let's take AFL for example and say you bet on every match during the year for the favourite, using the same amount of money each time and let's say a few hours before each match. I wonder if you would make a profit or loss and if profit how much it would be and whether it would be worth it over the whole year. Does anyone know of any study like this? Or have any thoughts on it?
     
    hawkeye, Mar 24, 2013
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  16. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If Julie Bishop had the top job, Labor wouldn't win a seat! :D :cool:
     
    Holdfast, Mar 24, 2013
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  17. gcsun

    gcsun New Member Silver Stacker

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    I hope you are kidding? All that woman does is bag labor with no policies of her own...
     
    gcsun, Mar 24, 2013
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  18. bordsilver

    bordsilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Julie's a snappy dresser though.
     
    bordsilver, Mar 24, 2013
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  19. errol43

    errol43 New Member Silver Stacker

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    What price ALP with 30 seats start.???

    Even money?

    Regards Errol 43
     
    errol43, Mar 24, 2013
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  20. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Odds have shortened sfter this week:

    Sworn in Government:
    Coalition 1.15
    ALP 5.50
     
    wrcmad, Mar 24, 2013
    #20
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