Bargains appearing on the ASX?

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, May 18, 2012.

  1. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This question put a bit of a spoke in my wheels as I would put the level of discussion as not very advanced - from me anyway. I see this sub-forum as more an agony club of share-market 'investors' sharing the angst and a few tips.

    At first I thought I would encourage everyone to at least open a share trading account, but even that I am equivocal about. The share market is great for liquid investment in assets that provide tax advantaged income (called franking credits) that adapt to inflation. On the negative side it is a mechanism for possible rapid capital gain and so hooks in to peoples' gambling instincts before they know it. I've known a few people, via forums, that should never have gone near the share market - it was, without exaggeration, a disaster for them.

    I would say have a look at the Commsec site and the Bell Direct site and maybe open an account with both, then make a considered choice about which to do actual business with - because it is a hassle to change horses. The registration as a client starts online and you might need to open a separate suitable banking account for trading payments to flow through.

    For the rest I'll try to be mindful that there might be a reader who has a novice interest who is mystified by some of the terms. Google will get you a long way with those, as will the brokers' sites and the asx site and many others . For 'Technical Analysis', so called, once again google for sources and I recommend the Stockcharts site. For fundamental analysis I recommend Skaffold. For charting, start with bigcharts. I can't link them because the bloody spam filter is obstructing me.

    Any specific questions, please ask, and I will give it a shot. As might a couple of others who have briefly lifted the bushel.

    E.g
    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=cum+dividend&l=1

    http://stockcharts.com/
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  3. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  4. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks Finicky,

    I have a commsec account but I never managed to buy anything I wanted to - probably a good thing since I know nothing about what I was doing other than I wanted some gold shares. Instead when after about 5 tries at buying I lost my patience and exited Commsec and went and bought physical. Now I think some mining shares might be a good idea but I still know nothing and I don't want to physically buy a mine!)

    I kept reading the commsec site hoping that by some osmotic process the gobbledygook would make sense, but it never did. Maybe I haven't bothered reading the instructions properly. I seldom do. If you have a link to screen shots of commsec showing a buying process please share. I couldn't find anything like it. Trouble is that most computer help is written by nerds who make too many assumptions about their readers.
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ok, I just muddled through when starting. You'll work it out if you really want it, or otherwise get help that's close at hand. Just get to the point where you can buy a share - with your trading password, trading account, and linked bank account - and go ahead and do it with an amount that won't kill you to lose. You won't lose much of it anyway if you buy say Telstra (TLS). Buy $1000 dollars worth say of Telstra. I feel like a drug pusher, lol

    Do not buy mining shares when starting out. In fact give them a wide berth like permanently. By the time you work out that the managements are swindling you, you will have little left. Go for dividend paying industrials (like I.T companies or telecoms) and then after the crash a few bank shares maybe.

    There is more explanation available these days, and I don't think you need to be logged in to use this function:

    http://www.commsec.info/education/

    Also the ASX:

    http://www.asx.com.au/resources/shares-education.htm
     
  6. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well the ASX doesn't always follow the DOW down I've noticed; often the ASX anticipates the next night's Dow action. But can be pretty sure of a down day on Monday on the ASX and that might mean a few more bargains presenting. I'll be keeping an eye on Thorn Group (TGA) and another stock that is very illiquid that I have mentioned.

    Yesterday I PayPalled $199 to the Motley Fool tipster sheet, but was a bit dejected with what I found in their current offerings. Apparently Motley can claim credit for putting their subscribers onto Maverick Drilling (MAD) early on, and also made a call on Industrea (IDL) months before IDL was approached for a takeover. They have also tipped M2 Telecommunications (MTU) from a way back.

    So what do I find in their current recommendations? A bunch of stuff that I've already got on my watchlists and am pretty familiar with. Stuff that is over-priced currently on the market like Amcom (AMM), Iress (IRE), Oroton (ORL), Platinum Asset Mgt (PTM), Cochlear (COH) - they're the over-priced quality ones - yawn. Then there're a couple of dogs like Salmat (SML) and Specialty Fashion Group (SFH), thrown in because they're supposed to be cheap (but aren't) and pay good dividends.

    So no ideas from that source yet.

    I saw Rudi Filapek-Vandyck of FN Arena on Sky Business talking about a new simple buying concept he uses sometimes - Dividend Support. He's not talking about buying something just because it pays a big dividend, it's more about buying a stock that has been pushed down and should find buying support due to its solid dividend record. On this basis, a few months ago he said to Peter Switzer that he'd buy tatty ASG Group (ASZ) before royal BHP, because he said ASG Group had reached a low where it was not reasonable for it to go lower because of the size and predictability of its dividend. Whereas noone is going to buy BHP for the dividend. Peter Switzer had a good laugh, but in the wash ASZ has risen 10% and BHP has fallen 10%. He said the stock he currently sees in this light is Thorn Group (TGA). Wonder how he would explain why it took so long for Telstra to find support though.
     
  7. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Not true. You can learn a great deal about how the stock market works, companies etc without actually buying a share.
    There are many books around and online resources from the basics to highly advanced.


    JulieW - if you are looking for just the basics, try starting with:

    http://www.asx.com.au/resources/shares-education.htm
     
  8. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You can flounder around playing tiddlywinks forever with those john and betty books. Better to jump in and lose a bit of committed money to get the juices flowing, lol
     
  9. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    I'm glad i sold all my spec stocks and went all in ASX:TLS and ASX:GOLD today. Todays a total bloodbath.

    BSL at 30c.... I don't like to speculate on the future of a company's existence but ...
     
  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^^^^
    Heheh

    oh ffs sake, Thorn Group's up. My main target.
     
  11. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Oh well picked up a few Thorn Group (TGA) anyway @ 1.495

    Shouldn't really be buying shares at all when I think about it, given I currently subscribe to the same view as Garry Glover who puts it so well. Most ASX bear markets have around a 5 year duration. Started this one, say, November 2007, looking for November period this year for a bottom to the ASX. The chart of the index seems to point to it, his 'cycles' studies point to it, the macro situation points to another crisis which will reflect in our stock market. So 3600 - 3300 on the All Ords by around the end of the year, or was it the ASX200? - so what the hell am I buying stocks for? That could be an 18% drop from here. Maybe Gary Glover and I will be wrong, and Clifford Bennett, who says the market bottomed a week or so ago, right. Interestingly Gary Glover believes the rally from the bottom could take the market up 100% in 12-18 months from there

    Picking up the dividend of 5.5c on this TGA buy. The stock goes EX div on 08/06/12, so of course it could drop further than the div on that day:/

    This is a repeat of the link I posted earlier, but worth memorizing for followers of the ASX imo:

    http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/ar...fternoon_Investor_23_05_2012&utm_medium=email
     
  12. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    Speaking of potential future bargains look at ASX:OOO (Crude oil ETF) it's been hammered. When the whole end game scenario has played out and more QE is announced i will be jumping on this one.

    That is of course if you believe the "peak" oil theory.
     
  13. malachii

    malachii Well-Known Member

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    I'm generally holding off any major buying now until early-mid Oct to see if there is any more fallout (unless we see major signs of a turnaround). All the indicators I watch are showing a much higher probability of a down movement than up - but as we all know - it's all in the tea leaves!!

    malachii
     
  14. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    Just look at Australian gov bonds.... i believe they are now at all time lows which is a indication of some serious shit coming out way.

    Interesting times... i saw BSL just broke below 30c....
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I heard the Aus Govt Bond rate not fully attributable to Aus prospect, but capital flows looking for relative yield and something a bit safer than Europe at least?

    BSL looked like it had a base but didn't, and Skaffold only gives it an actual intrinsic value of 13c in FY13, rising to 27c F14.
    Rates BSL B4 for quality (not investable)
     
  16. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I pray for the opportunity of a lifetime in the ASX200.

    Will be dollar cost averaging in when things starts to turn red :)
     
  17. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    GOR looks like a nice opportunity bearing in mind QE3 needs to be announced. Potential massive 100+% gains i believe.

    Really if QE3 is announced tonight then it's time to go long a any gold or silver mining stocks.
     
  18. Papina

    Papina New Member

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    Been looking at topping up on PGI.
     
  19. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lol, Flight Centre (FLT) does it again. The shorters will be copping it today. Still 35% below intrinsic value for FY12 if you believe Skaffold's assessment as of yesterday. P/E of about 10, yield of about 4.8% ff.

    STRONG UK AND US RESULTS HELP DRIVE FLIGHT CENTRE TO RECORD PROFIT

    STATEMENT TO AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES EXCHANGE July 5, 2012

    FLIGHT Centre Limited (FLT) today updated its profit guidance for the 2011/12 fiscal year.
    Based on unaudited trading results for the year to June 30, 2012, FLT expects a record profit
    before tax (PBT) between $285million and $290million.

    http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FLT&E=ASX&N=243264
     
  20. sprite

    sprite New Member

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    Look frankly I think anyone who is newly long in equities at the moment is playing with fire.

    There have been some good shorting opportunities the last 3 months

    I am pretty much out now and will wait until the dust settles. There will be a lot of dust. The short term volatility you are now seeing is mainly algorithmic. The marked drop in daily volumes on all stock markets over the last 6 months should be as clear as a bell tolling.

    The smart money has already left the system.
     

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