Bad omen - Gold price could smash records at $2,000,

Discussion in 'Gold' started by openeyes, Sep 10, 2019.

  1. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I was implying that it is a bad omen with large banks like Citi start talking about gold price going way up. I.e. it will probably take a turn down.
     
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  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not sure about the October plunge, but I’m having similar doubts that gold will go pass $2000 next year because the US economy remains strong.

    Asian economies may turn to selling gold if things get worst. You can’t eat gold, when times turn tough, first thing to be sold is gold jewellery, not your house or car. This is the truth. ;)

    If you look at the Asian financial crisis, gold in USD actually didn’t rise and fell instead between 1997 and 1998. The data is all there for everyone to see.

    For those who hope for chaos or new war in hope that gold will rise, I don’t see that happening as long as Trump is in charge. Trump’s a businessman, not a butcher. Sorry. :D

    By the way, did you see the suddenly plunge in bitcoin? If it persists, might be a leading indicator for gold??
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2019
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    1. Seasonality. It usually dips.
    2. Plus: we've already had an uproar, so I expect a correction, which should
    3. I know a bit of technical analysis, and I can tell it's coming (I can't tell how big it will be).

    But it something terrible happens (EU QE, major bankruptcy, Fed adopts an impactful decision, Trump decides to trump Iran...), then it goes to the Moon
     
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  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Indeed, Asians turn to gold and the US economy is strong, while the Euro is shaking (again).

    I'm of the thought that the EU is more fragile and the Euro is a worse currency than the dollar (with a worse reputation), thus, Europeans tend to turn to the Dollar when things get too "shaky". The dollar's strength is rising.

    What disappointing about Gold is what happened in Venezuela (I don't know if you saw my much earlier posts, about 1-2 years ago): Gold DID NOT follow the pace of inflation in Venezuela. Although it did become more expensive, the hyperinflation was far greater, so it didn't prove to be a good hedge.

    Armstrong too says that Gold is not a hedge against inflation. I somewhat disagree, but indeed, many times it doesn't work :/

    Worse: in a Venezuela scenario it's hard to imagine who can buy your gold. A bank? Someone who gives you a bucket load of toilet paper currency?

    They might as well give you a roll of currency, since it's worth at most the paper it's printed on... If I were Maduro, I'd make rolls of currency. :D Practical!

    Thank God Trump is a businessman! :D

    Yeah, Gold and BTC tend to move in opposite direction. Odd.

    Some believe the Ruskies and Chinese are using Bitcoin to swap Dollars into their own currencies. And/or to move what they have in the US to their countries.

    The world we're living in sure seems like the Twilight Zone!
     
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  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I read about gold being sold at a huge discount in Venezuela. Perhaps livestock is a better hedge against inflation, especially livestock that can produce eggs and reproduce itself. But if it comes to that my options will be limited as we don’t have much choices for farming here in Singapore. It appears that I can only rely on pms.
     
  6. SilverSurfer77

    SilverSurfer77 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I really like the idea but can you imagine what it would do to the price of gold if it actually happened.
     
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  7. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I just read that there is perhaps 190000 tonnes of above ground gold. That would value the total at around 9 trillion USD very very approximately.
    Australian super is around total 3 trillion AUD. Or 2 trillion USD. So 10% would equate to about 4166 tonnes of gold. Based on current contributors we would have to buy another 237.5 tonnes per year (at current gold prices and contribution levels) to maintain our 10% target.
    Substantial and definitely market affecting but not dominating I don’t think.
     
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  8. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That's a very commie idea.
    I don't think we should make anyone own anything.
     
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  9. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Livestock is a hedge against FAMINE.

    So is canned food. Sardine. Sprats. Mackerel.

    Forget about finding a "perfect" hedge against inflation. Put together a diversified portfolio: PM's, multiple fiat currencies (CHF, EUR, USD, your local currency), but you can even collect vintage objects, buy real estate (small apartments better, even if you're rich, then buy more cheap real properties instead of one luxury home, which no-one can buy in a crisis anyway).

    Stack food, tools, medicine, water, batteries,... but try not to go mad.

    I don't believe crypto can save you. It's a speculative, volatile, but ingenious invention. I never had any Bitcoin.
     
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  10. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sardines!

    Sent me to Google.

    FDA says safe for 5 years. Anecdotal from Quora says he has eaten canned sardines after 9 years and sill taste OK.
     
  11. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I guess it’s no more commie then forcing people to have super.
     
  12. aelmsu

    aelmsu Member

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    Botulism, yum!
     
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  13. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    It's best not to consume later than the expiration date. Or it's Russian roulette :p
     
  14. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Only with Sprats?

    :D
     
  15. wones

    wones Member

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    Do you have any idea on how much over spot people buy them for now? Or how much you would
     
  16. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    5 weeks ago you could buy $200 Koala 10g coin for spot,now the people paying $40 over the spot even the prize of gold drops-crazy world...
     
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  17. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Wow, looks like you're spot on.
     
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  18. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As @madaw1 says, I've paid between spot and spot+40 for them. Dealer premium is usually 12% or more.
     
  19. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    or telling people when or if they can access it, then taxing it.
     
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  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Yes, as we've entered November, the slip has continued downwards. After a lot of sideways-trading.

    Gary Wagner (Kitco "star") is talking about the 1,446 $ Fibonacci bottom level - could cold stop here?
    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/...ate-Possible-Bottom-and-Support-for-Gold.html

    Others spoke of 1,350-1,380 $ bottom levels. I'd really like to see whether it sinks below 1,400 $...
     
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