AUD short term instability

Discussion in 'Currencies' started by Topherclaus, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. Topherclaus

    Topherclaus Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2015
    Messages:
    563
    Likes Received:
    36
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Northern Rivers, NSW
    Any opinions on the thought it might be worthwhile parking some $$ in another currency for this week or 2 following such a tight election result? A hung parliament could definitely cause a drop in the dollar, but where would you? And what platforms are best for currency trading?
     
  2. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2015
    Messages:
    2,372
    Likes Received:
    440
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    New South Wales
    I think the AUD will take a hit from the election uncertainty but it's too late to really take advantage of it.

    I'd be parking money in the British Pound (risky) or Swiss Franc (safe, but less upside) if I was worried about future AUD weakness.

    Currency Fair is the best I've seen for foreign exchange at a decent rate.

    http://www.currencyfair.com/
     
  3. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2015
    Messages:
    2,372
    Likes Received:
    440
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    New South Wales
    I am very surprised that the AUD hasn't taken a hit today.

    If Labor gets government it should be down. Or with unstable and weak minority Liberal government I wouldn't imagine investors would be too happy either!!

    Surely the market was expecting a Liberal victory and improvements to company tax rates....that are now next to ZERO chance of happening. Is the market slow to price this in?
     
  4. Topherclaus

    Topherclaus Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2015
    Messages:
    563
    Likes Received:
    36
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Northern Rivers, NSW
    Labor Day in the US today, right? Might be holding things up.
     
  5. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    3,921
    Likes Received:
    1,097
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    I just converted a huge amount of AUD to USD for business. I figure the downside is more probable than further upside at this point.
    I use https://www.currencyfair.com/
    You can leave the money sitting in their account in any currency for as long as you want, and transfer instantly (if markets are open). Rates are the best I've found.
     
  6. Topherclaus

    Topherclaus Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2015
    Messages:
    563
    Likes Received:
    36
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Northern Rivers, NSW
    What in the world is holding the AUD at this 76-77c level?
     
  7. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    4,029
    Likes Received:
    917
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney
    Relative high AAA interest rate.

    Institutions, pension funds and soveriegn funds around the world looking for safe haven, bearing in mind there are parking trillions in zero to negative interest even the paltry interest Australian government bonds will look great.

    Unlike most memebers, I'm of the view Australian Governement should borrow borrow and invest in infastrure when the interest rate is low, so when the world economy bottoms out and start to go back to normalcy, we can benefit from infrastructure investment cost negligible interest.
     
  8. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2010
    Messages:
    13,251
    Likes Received:
    2,483
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Hitting 77c.

    Any reasons?
     
  9. goldenspike

    goldenspike Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Location:
    Victoria, Australia
    Nasty little drop in AUD last night, down over 1c in a few hours.
     
  10. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2010
    Messages:
    3,143
    Likes Received:
    1,334
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Sydney
    Looks like the AUD is about to fall off a cliff. Mean while the RBA still think they can keep the cash rate at 1.5% haha :p i guess they are screwed either way. The RBA is a waste of tax money, they are worse then useless.

    aud fall.jpg
     
  11. Silverman99

    Silverman99 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2011
    Messages:
    1,866
    Likes Received:
    473
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Auckland New Zealand
    Kiwi also took a hit for no known reason
     
  12. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2010
    Messages:
    3,143
    Likes Received:
    1,334
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Sydney
    There are many reason for the AUD to drop.

    -Falling housing market
    -No wage growth
    -Record consumer debt
    -Emergency low interest rates
    -Falling consumer confidence
    -Incompetent government
    and the list goes on...
     
    willrocks, wrcmad and whay like this.
  13. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2010
    Messages:
    3,143
    Likes Received:
    1,334
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Sydney
    As predicted the AUD had a sharp fall today. Got down to 68.5c. This is just the start...
     
  14. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    3,921
    Likes Received:
    1,097
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Luckily I recently moved a bunch of cash into unallocated gold and it's going gangbusters :D

    upload_2019-1-3_13-34-11.png
     
    leo25 and ozcopper like this.
  15. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2018
    Messages:
    3,229
    Likes Received:
    3,461
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Oz
    The AUD is also one of the most traded and volatile 1st world currencies (from memory 7th most traded currency on the planet) due to the resources nature of the country...BTW I don't discount inept govt or RBA policy driving AUD trading price either but I think macro issues such as forward FX purchases (lack there of due to slowing USD dominated resources sales in 2019) or potential for a rate cut (refer leo25) maybe more the driving factor.

    It's great seeing the AUD gold price spike a tad due to the decline of the AUD, but I'd prefer to see a bigger upward spike in the USD gold price but I'll take it anyway.

    The AUD is only really returning to it's natural trading range which I've started at 1984 given the AUD was only floated in mid Dec 1983. For those who care to dig a bit, you'll be surprised at where the AUD used to be pegged against the USD100 year prior.

    [​IMG]
    http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=AUD&C2=USD&TR=1&MA=1&YA=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1984&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=03&MM2=01&YYYY2=2019&btnOK=Go!

    For those of us old enough to remember the "golden years" (aka Howard), post Sept 2001, the AUD fell below USD50c and the Aust ecomony kicked on nicely...and this was pre the resources boom.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2019
    Shaddam IV likes this.
  16. ozcopper

    ozcopper Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2009
    Messages:
    16,597
    Likes Received:
    2,556
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    In the mid 70's 1 Aussie Dollar bought $1.60 US!!!
     
  17. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    3,921
    Likes Received:
    1,097
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Yep, it's a nice gain, but being in a business that buys stuff in USD, I get hit on the other side of the coin as a result.

    I was getting used to be it being fairly stable around the 70-80c mark. I wonder if/when there will be a wild breakout again?
     
  18. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2010
    Messages:
    13,251
    Likes Received:
    2,483
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia

    It was a magnificent time to be travellling as an Aussie!
    lol
     
  19. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2018
    Messages:
    3,229
    Likes Received:
    3,461
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Oz
    Only generally if 1) price for USD dominated receivables increases ie coal, iron ore etc with Aust sellers having to convert back to AUD thus pushing the AUD price up or 2) the Aust interest rates exceed the USD for a decent margin and investors pile in for the return.

    Safe haven reasons for buying Aust securities (which can push up the AUD value) could be thrown out the window if Little Bill resides in the lodge, plus he'll sign a deal with the devil in need (aka Greens) to secure power and that means our coal industry is done for....our number on export product. Should this come to pass...

     
  20. Silverman99

    Silverman99 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2011
    Messages:
    1,866
    Likes Received:
    473
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Auckland New Zealand
    Was very expensive for us to have a holiday in Australia back then
     

Share This Page