AUD and the RBA

Discussion in 'Currencies' started by mmm....shiney!, Sep 14, 2012.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    19,996
    Likes Received:
    3,136
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    Is it time we joined the party? Should the RBA step in and cut rates in order to weaken our dollar?

    It'll hurt though, especially fuel.
     
  2. renovator

    renovator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2011
    Messages:
    7,410
    Likes Received:
    123
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    QLD
    NOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooo !!!!!!!!! Im not finished investing OS yet .

    Do you want your stack to increase in value ? I hope they do it when PMs go up a fair bit more then it will be time to offload a bundle.

    The prices of PMs are still too low
     
  3. white-metal-man

    white-metal-man Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2010
    Messages:
    809
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    australia
    RBA to hold rates ......perhaps even hold the next time they meet.....maybe a cut after that....IMHO............this idea of seeing any real growth in the economy is very magnified to a few sectors..its not the typical average throughout the economy......building and construction is dead.....mining is winding back....china is contracting.....i dont have much riding on the RBA raising rates....either flat or down a 25 basis points at the next meeting or two....
     
  4. Willow

    Willow New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2010
    Messages:
    482
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    I still have an allocation to some australian bonds as i think they will cut rates going forward later on. I have still got one eye on the amount of debt the Australian federal government is selling. That may have an impact on it later on in my view.
     
  5. unfunkable

    unfunkable Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2011
    Messages:
    1,031
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    Canberra
    dropping very very soon
    my business banker paid a visit to me 3 weeks ago and tried to present a case to lock in rates
    i laughed and said no thx....probably the 3rd time in as many years, but this time he actually came out to see me

    he also approached head office to spread the word re fixing in rates...
     
  6. AgH20

    AgH20 New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2012
    Messages:
    168
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    Oct meeting will see rates on hold. Glenn Stevens and co are still examining the effect of their last rate cut to flow through the economy.

    I would think that the probability of a rate cut in Nov or even Dec (to boost Christmas spending and cheer :lol:) is more likely.

    However, it is no guarantee the banks (Scrooges) will pass that on to mortgage holders.
     
  7. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,493
    Likes Received:
    102
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Sunshine Coast, QLD
    I had a very, let me say "acute" conversation with some friends of mine RE interest rates and what to predict some years ago.... My advice to them was quite direct and it was this: While we like to think we are contrarian and like to stay ahead of the ball. The major banks have a huge vested interest in getting this right. They spend huge amounts of money hiring people to make them money on just this issue alone. Watch the spread between the variable and fixed interest rates and that will tell everything.

    This was during the time when the RBA was cutting rates fast as the GFC hit. I said at the time that when the fixed rates started halting while the variables continued to drop, that was a clear indicator that the big money was betting that the rate drops were about to end. I was proven right then and I have no reason to believe that following that trend wont be a good idea in the future.
     
  8. boyracer

    boyracer Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2012
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    That would have been about the time that pseduo experts started getting column space urging borrowers not to fix as rates had yet lower to go still. I saved a few of those articles for posterity and something to laugh/shake my head at in the years ahead. Although they are lost somewhere now in my overflowing bookmarks folder. Chasing an extra 25 or 50 basis points and missing the turn no doubt caught out a lot of punters.

    I use the mainstream advice on interest rates as my contrarian indicator but your method will work just as well although I don't think it has as much zazzle as mine :)
     
  9. scarfie1

    scarfie1 New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2012
    Messages:
    145
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I love it when Aussie John comes on TV and says not to fix rates as variable rates will be cut further. Does he not understand that fixed rates are the market's forward expectation of what rates will do. e.g currently the yield curve is pricing in some pretty aggressive cutting by the RBA.

    I personally think now is a great time to fix, as historically they are very low (3 year swap is at or near its all time lows), and also historically, the fixed rates jump very quickly from their lows.

    Anyway, back to the topic, the RBA should step in to weaken the dollar and they will. However they won't position it as that. They'll talk about inflation being acceptable/low, expected employment weakening, commodity price falls etc.
     
  10. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    2,493
    Likes Received:
    102
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Sunshine Coast, QLD
    Boyracer did you just say Zazzle? :-D

    If they are going to print to devalue the dollar I would at least like them to do so by buying up large chunks of gold, not BS paper assets like MBS or government bonds.
     
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    19,996
    Likes Received:
    3,136
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    I'm a bit lost boyracer, do you think rates will come down or do you think we are at a bottom or near bottom now? Currently I think interest rates will drop, but only marginally. 6 months ago I would've thought they would be about 3% now, but as we all know, they're not.That is typical of my calls. :/

    It could very well turn out that we have bottomed out and interest rates are set to rise. It all comes down to the RBA now, that's a lot of power in the hands of some bureaucrats.
     
  12. Nugget

    Nugget New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2009
    Messages:
    4,574
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbogan


    Buy a pushy :cool: or if you've got a long distance to travel (40 km) buy a motorbike.
     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    19,996
    Likes Received:
    3,136
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    Got a pushy (a Scott), too fat n lazy to use it. It's the best 2nd hand Scott MTB in the whole of Oz. ;)
     
  14. Nugget

    Nugget New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2009
    Messages:
    4,574
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbogan

    I've exceeded my quota for new bikes this year. I've bought two brand new bikes and I have a third acting like a dust magnet.


    My road bike that I bought at the start of the year has so far cost me 40 cents a kilometre and it's got a lot of life left in it. My newest bike significantly more than that but that's because it's only a couple of weeks old :p


    So far I've lost about 10kg this year. The weight loss would be more impressive if I cut out the booze and if I stopped going to the smoko shop just to get away from my idiot co-workers for a few moments.... seriously "Your job - JFDI".
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    19,996
    Likes Received:
    3,136
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    I've had a love affair (that is = hot, cold, disinterested) with treadlies for as long as I can remember. It was 3 speed dragsters in the early days, luckily I haven't replicated that with personal relationships. But as I always say, "Quotas are meant to be broken!!!" or stuff like that anyway.

    But anyway, you are dragging me OT nugg. ;)

    Edit to add: And well done big boy on the kg loss.
     
  16. Nugget

    Nugget New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2009
    Messages:
    4,574
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbogan
    New Zealand is having similar problems. But at least their openly acknowledging the elephant in the room (Clive Palmer?)




    :(
     
  17. Big A.D.

    Big A.D. Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2009
    Messages:
    6,612
    Likes Received:
    258
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Sydney
  18. Philski

    Philski Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2011
    Messages:
    549
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Tasmania
    Its not just the RBA, Its politics and personal.

    When our miners and other exporters cry for a lower dollar and the very next day our fearless leader jumps in with blanket orchestrated global media coverage saying how good and fabulous our economy is and drives the dollar up to hurt them so obviously. it sickens me.
     
  19. boyracer

    boyracer Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2012
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Well Lovey80 and I were talking about 2008 specifically not now what is happennig now. Personally I think interest rates will move down again but not quickly. I think the problems with our economy etc will manifest themselves slowly so the RBA will not be under huge pressure to drop rates. I can't see them going up for a while.

    The big question of course is how low they go. I don't see us hitting ZIRP this time round I see this as simply part of the cycle towards that end game. Calling interest rates is pretty difficult so happy to admit I could probably be completely wrong.

    Lovey80 - yes I did say zazzle. It just popped into my head and I thought I'd run with it :)
     
  20. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,974
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    Brisbane
    http://www.biiwii.com/guest4/bv/bv193.htm
    Why Everyone Wants a Weaker Currency - 21 September 2012

    A race to the bottom and Australia is doing a good job of loosing
     

Share This Page