If the RBA cut the rate by 0.25 percent to 1.75 percent, that might translate as a 12.5% drop in the Aussie to about 66 US cents. If silver spot stayed the same, the AUD spot would be about $24. On top of this,we do have a slowly increasing spot rate.
Saxo bank economist tipping parity again with the US dollar. big call. http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...akobsens-bet-on-a-parity-20160308-gnd8bw.html
Depends what the US economy and the Fed are doing. If the US economy is indeed weakening, the US economy dwarfs the Australian economy. Any further hint from the markets that the Fed will not tightening policy further will still place upward pressure on the AUD as the USD weakens even if the RBA do cut.
Wow, huge call. I'm happy with +/-10%, that's the "meh" range where as a business you don't really have to worry about it.
What are you expecting to happen tomorrow? Chinese inflation, Aussie consumer inflation, US Jolts, ECB meeting or just a general break though of the 75 cents resistance level?
i would empty all of my equity to transfer all of my money to usd, and park it at real estate over there. i just did it on the last parity.
I'll trade the AUD/USD on the Chinese inflation figures tomorrow. That'll be it apart from the EUR/USD on the ECB meeting tomorrow night
NZ dropped its interest rate by .25% this morning. The Aussie is sure to follow, especially as the AUD is hitting 75 cents. Maybe a .5% drop?
Maybe too drastic? But desperate times call for desperate measures. Normally we'd have two drops of .25 each, but if if the AUD rises too far above the RBA's target then they could try some shock and awe.
A steep drop in the Aussie could lock in the next four weeks as the last opportunity to buy at sub $21! No more talk then of any future bottom.
You can forget about any of the big four passing on some or all of the cut to keep the real estate bubble propped up. Increasing bank funding costs have the banks weighing up the option of increasing their rates, not cutting them. The RBA cutting rates now would simply be in an effort to weaken the AUD to increase trade. Of course Shorten and Turnbull will stand up in front of the media and slam the banks for not passing on the cut for show, but they very well know that the banks won't pass on the cut.
^ We locked in our mortgage at a fixed rate some months ago for this very reason. Crazily, the fixed rate was lower than the variable at the time.
The Fed has weakened its forecast on increasing rates. USD down, AUD, Ag & Au up. I'm predicting the RBA will drop interest rates by 0.5%, .25% for the banks and .25% for the people. The AUD should drop to under 70c and Ag will hit at least AUD24.
