What do people think will happen over the next month $au to surpass the $us again or do you think it wil float between 90c-98c for the foreseeable short term future? I get paid in $us so personally I hope it falls further but think it will float for a while
Here's some monthly statistics so you can decide...there's also detailed day to day figures in this link. http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/2010-2013.xls?accessed=2013-07-26-08-36-54 Jul-2010 0.8986 Aug-2010 0.8918 Sep-2010 0.9667 Oct-2010 0.9761 Nov-2010 0.9618 Dec-2010 1.0163 Jan-2011 0.9924 Feb-2011 1.0163 Mar-2011 1.0334 Apr-2011 1.0900 May-2011 1.0709 Jun-2011 1.0739 Jul-2011 1.0954 Aug-2011 1.0691 Sep-2011 0.9781 Oct-2011 1.0509 Nov-2011 1.0021 Dec-2011 1.0156 Jan-2012 1.0637 Feb-2012 1.0816 Mar-2012 1.0402 Apr-2012 1.0453 May-2012 0.9727 Jun-2012 1.0191 Jul-2012 1.0526 Aug-2012 1.0301 Sep-2012 1.0464 Oct-2012 1.0378 Nov-2012 1.0431 Dec-2012 1.0384 Jan-2013 1.0394 Feb-2013 1.0275 Mar-2013 1.0426 Apr-2013 1.0368 May-2013 0.9649 Jun-2013 0.9275 More info: http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/xls/f11hist.xls?accessed=2013-07-26-08-36-54
Crojo, there is a vast amount of confusion and uncertainty, as bordsilver put it a couple of months ago, his opinion about the future of the AUD changes from one month to the next. There are a number of threads that give member's opinions and the reasons for them - if you had time it would be worthwhile going them as it would take me far to long to summarise them here. Bordsilver, mmm....shiney!, willrocks and tolly_67 have all posted their opinions and reasons, there are others too but they've been a bit quiet lately eg lovey88 There are many posts as well that just give opinions with no substance - I wouldn't bother with them :lol:
It appears to me that QE is working. Investment is up in the US. PM pricing is stable, the USD is up, the AUD is down. As such I think the AUD will keep slipping until we hit that point of 1. critical mass, 2. diminishing returns, 3. or in Stacker parlance - SHTF. Now some newsletters are stating within 90 days, others 2 years. For what it's worth, I think it will be linked to a Syrian and/or Iranian US war that will tip the balance; maybe 6 to 12 months.
Anything could happen, even in a satiable market war could break out any time soon take the twin towers or even North Korea for example or the current wars been waged.
'They' wont let 'the end' come for a long, long time. 'Best guess' is still the formula for us peasants to use. (guess since everything is rigged). [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg[/youtube]
I am hoping it has a bit to go down still! Every little bit helps when sending baht and USD back to my Aus bank account.
You think? This fall is not just AUD specific, it appears the USD doesn't smell like "Shite Tonite" so it's being lapped up. All majors are falling in comparison. Why though? is the question.
Because I want PMs to go up in AUD Falling dollar takes the edge off falling PM prices - one of the reasons for owning PMs in the first place
With the price of oil rising and all oil purchases to be made in US $, then it means that the US is getting oil imports cheaper and other countries are paying more having to convert their currency into US$. A great deal for the USA but not for Australia. Is that the answer why? Be interested in your thoughts on the matter? Regards Errol 43
How is that cheaper oil for the US? Oil is and was priced in USD. The price of oil is going up in USD QED The US pays more USD for each barrel of oil. This is of course ignoring they just magic USD out of thin air so its anybodies guess what it really costs them but I won't go there.
i would expect the AUD to slip substantially after every RBA rate cut (one due next week). backed at a 90% chance of a cut, watch the AUD slide next week. I might break the 1 year drought and buy an ounce of gold this week.
