Are we near a turning point in silver’s relentless decline?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by ozcopper, May 9, 2017.

  1. ozcopper

    ozcopper Administrator Staff Member

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  2. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have friends who sail, ski, play bridge, cycle, collect stamps, etc.; we stack silver. When it stops being enjoyable, stop stacking.
     
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  3. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    silver will go up and down as usual, but gradually down, as the world economy declines.
    Jmo.
     
  4. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the relentless drop is to be followed by another reluctant drop
    hate to say 14.52, buy to be happy when its near the basement
    its on sale, how long can it last? just enough for us to walk in a store and buy all we want to have and walk out, its just enough.
     
  5. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  6. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    The online silver pundits have all started predicting more of a drop. Since they can't get it right about silver going up, perhaps they try to look correct by calling silver's fall more? I don't remember seeing so many negative silver price articles posted at once on the pumper sites.

    Based on these recent calls for more dropping by the pumper pundits, I predict silver will go up short term, since the pumper pundits are wrong so much- do the opposite of what they say.
     
  7. andrewlee10

    andrewlee10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Everything's commodity will up and down.

    Those e-commerial value at 50 to 120 of their PE. It that logical ? Still many bumper to bump it.

    Same like silver does it worth a lot or lesser is more on personal.

    Personally I do not buy ecommece stock & equity but I buy other industry.

    Some prefer stack silver and I have more numic than bullion.

    When it go down to 15 which I intend to buy kilo silver lunar.
     
  8. barneyrubble

    barneyrubble Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Possibly the floor?

    [​IMG]
     
  9. silversearcher

    silversearcher Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I think not yet...Time to keep cash longer.
     
  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    look at Palladium, silver is ugly by comparison
    but now we see silver bottom is already in since this OP
    Palladium is catching up to Platinum :)

    pd 15052017.png
     
  11. greedy Kobold

    greedy Kobold Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Besieged Silver Rallies as Dollar Brings ‘Fresh Money’ to Metal

    Indeed, there could be a turning point.

    A picture comes first
    16052017.JPG
    by Susanne Barton
    (Bloomberg) -- Silver posted the biggest gain in more than
    a month as the dollar weakened and traders speculated that a
    recent sell-off was excessive.
    The metal, used in everything from solar panels to
    appliance components, is up for a fourth session after posting
    the longest losing streak since 1980 earlier this month. A gauge
    of the dollar touched a two-week low on Monday, boosting demand
    for raw materials as alternative assets. The Bloomberg
    Industrial Metals subindex rose, with gains in copper, zinc and
    aluminum.
    Silver is among the worst-performing commodities in the
    past 30 days, hurt by concern that tepid U.S. economic data and
    slower growth in China would dim industrial demand. Money
    managers last week increased net short positions in silver for a
    fourth consecutive week. Commerzbank AG said it expects to see
    headwinds from speculators “dying down gradually” in precious
    metals.
    “The weakness in the dollar is driving the demand,” said
    Peter Thomas, a Chicago-based senior vice president at metals
    broker Zaner Group. “We were oversold. We had a lot of people
    leaving the market. There’s a lot of room on any momentum for
    fresh money to come back in.”
    Silver futures for delivery in July climbed 1.2 percent to
    settle at $16.603 an ounce at 1:40 p.m. on the Comex in New
    York. It’s the biggest gain since April 11.
    The metal’s 14-day relative-strength index fell below 30
    earlier this month, signaling to some analysts who study charts
    that it was oversold.
    “Buyers came back in, and now it’s catching fire,” said
    Frank Cholly, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in
    Chicago.
    Gold futures for June delivery climbed 0.2 percent to
    settle at $1,230 an ounce on the Comex. The metal is up for a
    fourth day as demand for haven assets rose after North Korea
    fired a missile over the weekend and extortionists mounted a
    global cyber attack.
     
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  12. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    I don't think so. Look at the dollar today (May 22nd). Been dropping like a rock lately and silver can't even get back to $18? Those hoping for $100 per ounce might have to wait a bit (I used to think such a sum was possible in the past).

    Dollar chart looks terrible. Silver (and gold) should be higher but not.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p65510488848
     
  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    wow palladium 902.95
    platinum 950.35
    gold 1273.38
    silver 17.30
     
  14. Silverman99

    Silverman99 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Followed by the Friday smack down
     
  15. RichardAL

    RichardAL Member Silver Stacker

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    OP was in May and between roughly then and now all I can remember turning up is doom and gloom regarding silver, so just for the hell of it I'm going to offer some good news...

    At the moment, silver's sitting around USD 16.70 - bouncing off 16.30 after failing to break resistance at 18.48 or so, but wait ...

    Seasonal data (seasonalcharts.com) indicate that silver generally bottoms in the last week of June followed by a rally [until the end of July/first week in August].

    The “glimmer of hope” - GSR mean reversion - certainly is supporting a move higher for silver as being in the offing, still there's more ...


    As noted by investinghaven.com (June 2, 2017) “Silver's chart has a rarely seen chart pattern: a huge triangle formation over more than 10 years which includes its long term bull and bear markets. Right now, support is $15 and resistance $19. Consolidation can continue in 2017 but a huge breakout or breakdown is coming, somewhere in the coming months.” Looks like their triangle's pointy end for inflection is anywhere from now to October!

    That narrowing of the long term price range has also been spotted by Lior Gantz at resourceinvestor.com, who on June 5, 2017 let the cat out of the bag in the article “Silver: a real breakout is coming”. The time to get cashed up and be alert is about now says Lior.


    Now all of this is taking place against a backdrop of tightening fundamentals as detailed in the charts and tables published by The Silver Institute, which show that the world has begun eating into above ground supply, consuming more than it produces annually for the last few years. Another piece of the price positive puzzle clicks into place!

    Not only that, but Indian silver jewellery demand has been increasing year on year since 2012 or so. And Jack Ma pointed out earlier this year that “China is transitioning from an export based economy into a major goods importer in order to feed the desires of an increasing middle class (heading toward 500 million people)”. The Chinese market will require lots of silver in many different forms.


    So mid to long term outlook is great, the chances are there will be a breakout, not a breakdown; yet still there is more...there are a number of upcoming events, each of which could cause silver's price to jump -

    A crash in US equities (maybe in October) or a slump into recession for the US economy (a month to month proposition) as the Trump trade unwinds (silverseek.com, A Hoffman et al 2017), or the US Fed raises too much (silverdoctors.com, A Macleod et al 2017, Goldman Sachs report June 2017) or the US government hits its debt ceiling - likely to happen in September. When, in 2011, the US government ran out of cash, silver hit huge highs and with the fragile, fractious state of the relationship between President Trump and the Deep State unlikely to ease things undoubtedly could be messier.... and better for silver this time.

    The parlous state of the European experiment in which, so far, - zerohedge authors report - two Italian and a Spanish bank have been wound up by the ECB (June 2017) inflation has raised its ugly head post Brexit in the UK and Greece wants to be bailed out by everyone else for something like the eighth time in a decade! Greece's bills fall due in July.

    Not to mention those by definition unseeable black swans.

    Perhaps for a stacker the clincher has to be that it, silver, is currently historically undervalued - it's cheap, apparently “the only commodity 66% cheaper than 37 years ago” (thanks to Lior Gantz for that)

    What's not to like !?!
     
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  16. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    I have been following silver since the mid 2000's and I don't remember seeing premiums this low (in the US). Here is a link to a US company that sells retail but also serves as a "wholesale" source for other dealers. One of my smaller local guys sells to them sometimes. I look at their sheet sometimes just to see an additional source of wholesale prices.

    You can see some generic .999 they are buying for LESS than spot. Some of my local stores now are paying less than spot to sellers when you sell back to them. I don't ever remember premiums this low on .999 since I have been following silver (sometimes in the past you could get "junk" silver - 90% for melt but rarely). Locally, you could always get at least spot/melt when you sold your .999 to a dealer unless it was damaged, cull, etc.

    I have no idea where the price is headed but I would bet down from here if I had to bet.

    http://shopping.na2.netsuite.com/s.nl/c.3373346/sc.39/.f
     
  17. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  18. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That was late. I expected you to post that over two weeks ago when this thread was started.
     
  19. dross

    dross Active Member

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    OK both metals seem to going south again, i know no one really knows whats going to happen but any idea whats causing this latest down trend when all i ever see is doom & gloom.

    Russia's to to go to war with, China's going to war with, North / south Korea, worlds financial situation getting worst, Trump, Trump & more Trump white noise is deafening so whats the real driving force this time some unseen PTB turning knobs & pressing buttons or just how it is until its not.

    Sorry not been keeping my ear to the ground much of late, always interesting insight here except then it just becomes a bun fight, please don't.
     
  20. PeterS

    PeterS Member

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    I'm getting daily emails from APMEX, unprecedented since I dealt with them the once a couple of years ago. I remember a thread once about this indicating it might be a sign of prices expecting to go down.
     
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