Anecdotal evidence of gold/silver demand drop

Discussion in 'Silver' started by sammy, Sep 15, 2019.

  1. sammy

    sammy Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Everyone,

    With all the recent euphoria on the gold and silver price I thought I’d share a recent experience I’ve had. As some of you know, I’m in the jewelry industry and I speak with a lot of manufacturers.

    I just returned from a major jewelry exhibition in Bangkok. There are two major industry shows this time of year, one is in Bangkok and the other is in Hong Kong. I went around to a lot of my usual suppliers and asked them about how they are faring with the bump up in price and ALL of them were very worried about our industry. A higher gold/silver price means higher cost prices BUT there is little consumer demand for jewelry right now. In other words, costs are going up but nobody is buying due to poor retail conditions. Many of these suppliers were selling their stock at break even prices just for the turnover. One guy I’ve been sourcing from for years was selling gold chains at $1950 (AUD) below spot because no one was buying them at spot. He said he manufactured the items when spot was around $1800, so he is technically making a profit but he can’t replace his inventory at that rate (let alone cover his manufacturing costs).

    The other note is that everybody was keen for a lot of sales in the Bangkok show, because everyone had written of any good sales out of Hong Kong because of the political turmoil there right now, so they were incredibly depressed at their low sales.

    This means that there will be a HUGE drop off in demand from the jewelry industry within around the next 6 months, unless there is a miracle growth spurt in retail demand - but no one is holding their breath.

    Make of this observation what you will, but things are definitely different to the 2010-11 heyday when the industry went through high prices. Retail customers were still buying then and willing to pay higher prices. This is no longer the case.

    Just thought I’d share this with you guys, but I see a huge demand side drop over the next few months.

    Cheers,
    Sammy
     
  2. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Im in BKK now and where I am all the gold shops are dead. I normally buy gold when I am here, but sadly not now! It's too expensive. I guess the gold rally has scared the locals as well.
     
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  3. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks for sharing. Is silver jewellery in Thailand sold by the weight? Silver jewellery is not sold by the weight over here in Singapore and prices range for $10 for a nice 925 bangle at a roadside stall to $200 for a mickey mouse pandara bracelet of about the same weight.
     
  4. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    id also like to know mor about these conventions in bkk i like bangkok for other reasons (nana and soi cowboy --- yeahhhhhhhhh) and i might like ti better if i can get cheap metals
     
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  5. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Unfortunately my partner still has demand for jewelry... Does anyone know where you can buy 18ct gold female jewelry in Sydney? Only place i can find is Tiffany & co, but their prices are ridiculous!
     
  6. sammy

    sammy Active Member Silver Stacker

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    That comes down to the jewelers premium. If you want to buy metal then go for the cheaper non brand option, but if you want something ‘pretty’ then go for the expensive branded pieces
     
  7. sammy

    sammy Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Most jewelers would have cheaper chains than Tiffany. Check your local, he’d have it for sure.
     

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