Acrux Ltd (ACR)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Mar 11, 2014.

  1. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Would you buy this biostock's chart?

    I'm taking it as a confirmed head and shoulders pattern, 2.75 neckline breached, and rule of thumb target for that would be down around $1.25 or $1. Just one way of looking at it currently.

    Topical 'through the skin' drug delivery technology

    I have it as a high level watch because it's a 'yesterday's hero' stock mentioned by Montgomery Fund players among others and it's near future earnings look secure. For example the company is expecting a US$50m milestone payment from 'big pharma' licensee Lilly in FY15. Even in FY16 earnings per share could be around 14.5c, going by one source (Morningstar analyst estimates on Comsec). So that wouldn't be to bad if the shares can be picked up around 1.50 or lower.
    Only profitable last 4 years but has already paid 88c in dividends (unfranked) counting the 12c to be paid this month (ex 25 Feb). No debt and will be plenty more cash to pay dividends.

    Check out the mad ROEs early in its short profitable history:
    2010/06 2011/06 2012/06 2013/06
    57.80% 125.00% 13.90% 14.80%
    FY16 should be another biggie.

    Bit of a scare going on that Acrux's testosterone product (Axiron) is under threat in US because FDA is looking critically again at testosterone supplementation.
    Some are saying it's a single product company, that it doesn't have a moat against rivals, that it lacks pricing power being as its product is the hands of a multinational.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Still behaving like a confirmed head and shoulders pattern with today's Quarterly Sales Report disappointing and share price down 18% to bid of $1.34.
     
  3. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    From Acrux's update today:

    The market can only make the judgement that the milestone payment will not happen in FY15. This payment was previously confidently forecast, so that casts more general doubt over the company's reliability. The milestone payment is based on the licensee partner Eli Lilly achieving a sales target globally for the partnered product, Axiron.
    Throw in the doubts caused by the FDA still deliberating on safety concerns over testosterone supplementation.

    Too risky at any price?
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Up 5% today. Uptrending since June. Massive Positive volume for month of June.

    6 MONTH DAILY
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_acr_daily_6_months.gif][​IMG][/imgz]

    5 YEAR MONTHLY
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_acr_monthly_july_7.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Pretty emphatic reversal so far. I wasn't game to bite. Share price up 31% today after release of Quarterly sales result for 'Axiron'. Result was well up on previous Quarter.

    [​IMG]
     

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