A case for the Bulls or the Bears.

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by markcoinoz, Sep 26, 2022.

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Which one of these Four Historical S&P Charts are likely to play out?

  1. 1) For The Bulls - 1962 S&P vs 2022 S&P.

    1 vote(s)
    9.1%
  2. 2) For The Bulls - 2015 S&P vs 2022 S&P.

    1 vote(s)
    9.1%
  3. 3) For The Bears - 2008 S&P vs 2022 S&P.

    2 vote(s)
    18.2%
  4. 4) For The Bears - 1973 S&P vs 2022 S&P.

    1 vote(s)
    9.1%
  5. 5) Non of The Above - This time it is Different.

    6 vote(s)
    54.5%
  1. markcoinoz

    markcoinoz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Interesting times.
    Below, are 4 Historical Charts of the S&P in each chart which provides a certain amount of correlation to our current S&P chart in (Red). The highest correlation is 91% to the 2008 Financial crisis, with the lowest being 1973 at 85%.

    I have included a Poll and would like your opinion on which one is likely to play out.

    In the Poll, I have chosen 1) as I still remain optimistic that the FED will cave in to the damage caused by interest rate increases, sooner rather than later, irrespective what Powell says.

    What is your view?

    Please vote.
     
    Real $ likes this.
  2. markcoinoz

    markcoinoz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Forgot the Chart.

    upload_2022-9-26_17-16-51.png
     
  3. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I couldnt guess about the charts but they cant stop the inflation so a pivot will come eventually for sure. Who knows when.
    It all depends how long they want to keep the tourniquet on and how much pain they want to inflict.
    They could fight inflation for years, long enough for most to lose everything and then pivot but i hope not.

    Id have to say its somewhat different this time and their tools are broken so its anyones guess.
    There comes a time when the only option is to print or introduce a new currency and we are quickly reaching it.
     
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  4. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep, I intend to see you all here in another 10 years so we can reflect on the next load of bullshit about how nobody could believe that the economy just wouldn't die - that Peter Schiff is still right, Gerald Celente is still angry on his death bed and Kiyosaki still believes silver is cheaper than ever, etc etc... The last 10 has been just that as well with the opposite backdrop of excess liquidity. 'End game' mentality has been the least fruitful, so far.
     
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  5. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Whatever happens with the s&p, Europe had better familiarize themselves with the Russian natl anthem.
     
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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Bull here, 5.

    I'm not sure finding an historical chart to match what may play out hence my vote.

    The Fed will keep raising rates, inflation will fall at some point next year, liquidity will return to the market including QE4 and fiscal measures and asset prices will rise again.

    There you go :p
     
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  7. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ the future doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.
     
  9. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Previous outcomes are no guarantee of future performance.

    My Super fund told me
     
  10. barneyrubble

    barneyrubble Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  11. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Whilst advertising why you should join them based on past performance?
     
  12. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Silver went up in 2010 and 2011
     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details

    The Fed tightening longer than expected, Powell going full Volcker but not going to repeat his mistake by reducing rates too early, gold gets a brief mention, risk averse around equities and @lucky luke he is short Euro v USD and long Yen v Oz and Looney, that may help to answer the question you had elsewhere. So commodity currencies are expected to under perform.
     
  14. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Haha, soon the rhetoric will be that the fed 'never wants to see a booming economy' instead of 'helicopter money and hyperinflation is a sure thing'.
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ isn't that already a "thing" in some circles? :p
     
  16. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Active Member

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    Full Volcker? Volcker raised rates from 11.2% all the way up to 20%! A retarded 3.5% is not "full Volker" LOL. No comparison.
     
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  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Hes already gone full retard.
    Never.... go full retard.
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Of course it's an accurate comparison and it's way beyond Volcker. :rolleyes:

    Inflation is nowhere near what it was under Volcker. Powell is going to ensure that he uses rates to crush inflationary pressure but unlike Volcker he's not going to make the mistake of reducing them too early. 11.2% to 20% is not even 2X the initial rate, Powell has gone from 0.25% to 3.25% in under 2 years. That's an increase in the order of 12X !!!!!!
     
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  19. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Active Member

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    :D this is a perfect example of why statistics are bullshit. The whole system is built on fudged numbers and the Fed put, the confidence trick.
     
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ so you're suggesting that the "Fed Put" is a fantasy? :eek:

    Anyway, I'll stick to the stats available when I come to making my financial decisions, whether they're accurate or not they're what guide the actions and decision-making process of our central planners. ;)
     

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