Discussion in 'Currencies' started by fishduck, Dec 15, 2019.
Coronavirus will send US GDP down a startling 13%: Deutsche Bank predicts
Deutsche bank is on the verge of collapse, seems they are very bad at predictions.
Follow the money they say....
Dollar up , Bonds up , Equities down , Gold down......there's going to be some serious cashflow issues coming up. A lot of cash hoarding going on, plus a lot getting wiped out.
So they would go down together, only the bad would say its bad things
Been watching a number of videos with Brent Johnson explaining why he believes the US Dollar will continue to rise against other fiat currencies over the next couple of years. It's his milkshake theory. To me, he makes sense especially when you have the Swap Lines in place with 14 Nations, including Australia.
In the below video, Brent Johnson and Marin Katusa discuss the currency crisis that is coming and what to expect.
What has probably convinced me more is how the OZ $ so easily tanked when the markets plunged beginning on the DJIA on 23rd March.
Swap Lines put in place and the AUD has marched forward against the US$.
If Brent Johnson is correct, then the US$ might not be a bad place to do a bit of hedging.
Fun times ahead.
This is another video with Brent Johnson only speaking a week ago on Nugget's News.
The strongest of the other failing fiats.
Great channel. cheers!
It's a very interesting video you have posted Marckco.
The common theme of the whole video is that the USD is the number one currency that the whole world wants and will revert to most times.
For those with limited time to watch the whole video, here are a few reference points:
3:25 USD is the best fiat currency
13:50 AUD will go down against the USD again
23:00 We are stuck with the USD and the system we have now is the best system available
30:50 All the printing in the world will mostly end up in US treasuries rather than other treasuries
57:20 USD getting stronger, short other currencies, AUD is getting weaker over the next couple of years.
My take, I reckon watch the AUD, it's at .666 cents to the USD now. Might go a bit higher but when it starts stalling you better protect yourself. I usually take positions in the ETF USD when I feel the AUD is going lower. I picked half of the recent fall from .65c to .55c. I cashed out half way through a bit prematurely but could have done better. At that time everything was crashing, shares, gold, silver the lot. When I saw a tidy profit I got out, you need nerves of steel to play the currency game.
One of the things that I got from both videos is, that the current system is not sustainable.
Short term. Yes!! However, it may only take one or two nations to default at some point and
confidence will be shattered. Important to know which side of the fence to be sitting on as things unfold.
I haven’t watched the video, why would a nation default?
Edit to add: corporate defaults are more likely, but then the central bank can just buy up those junk bonds.
For those concerned about a plunge in the Aussie dollar, Citibank offer a Global currency account. You can deposit AU$ in and it will register as US$ ( or a handful of optional currencies) and you can ride out the drop whilst holding value.
I first set up a regular Citibank account for ebay purchases from the States as they didn't charge a fee for overseas purchases, whereas my NAB account meant a 4% fee (WTF!). Citibank's buy/sell spreads are considerably tighter than the major banks as well.
Rumour had it that Repo was to bail out Deutsche bank.
Apart from the buy/sell spreads are there any other fees? Sounds better than buying the ETF as there is the $20 to $30 in and out brokerage fee each way. Thanks for the tip.
It's turned out to be a fortuitous trade. The AUD was about USD0.70 at the time and CRO was just a shade under AUD0.05. CRO is now is just over AUD0.12. For how long nobody knows, but I'm getting 12% interested on my holdings so I'm not complaining.
Will she break the USD 0.70 mark today I wonder.
Aussie Dollar moving up, so gold down and silver down even more... Lol. So no money to be made from the USD, Gold or Silver.
But it's all good, put your money into equities. Doesn't matter that the underlying economy is toast, the Central Banks have their back.
What a joke of a system. Laughable.
But, as they say. If you want to make money... Follow the Fed.
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