Yep sounds like a highly thought out analysis method How exactly does the emotional state of gold bugs influence the gold price when the futures market sets the price ? Can the same analysis technique be used to predict house prices by using the current emotional state of property bugs ?
Given that I am pretty much out of metals at the moment I think its best that I keep my op pinions to myself. I'd definitely be using it as a stacking opportunity though if it did eventuate. I clearly remember in circa 2000/2001 when gold was advertised on tv as being $250ish US. If only I had understood metals back then.
Well I reckon when the property bubble finally bursts that house prices are going to fall right back to what they were in 1980 - houses in bayside suburbs will be selling for $50k What's that you say? You can't even build a house for $200k today let alone $50k ? Wages and prices today are much higher than they were in 1980 ? bah why let reality get in the way of a great prediction ?
Come on now wrcmad , you know people are going to tell us now "how that is different" lol. I am on your boat
I see we're somewhere in either the capitulation or despair phase of the cycle already... Nobody can see the future. Only some know whats truly occurring in the present. The rest of us just have to fall back on the past. Anything pre-Nixon shock (1971) is not relevant to today's situation, as gold was not a 'floating' commodity like it is today. Going back further, pre-1930 all the major currencies were pegged to gold, thus the exchange rate was almost a constant. I really don't see gold spot retracing back to mid-1990s levels, below USD500. Notice how the nominal USD Gold price, even in the plateau after each bearish reversion ('78,'82) has yet to drop back to its pre-'bullrun' nominal price. Keep in mind: this was environment where the Federal Reserve US Funds rate was at 10.0-19.5% (under Volcker). A pretty heavy headwind for an asset class with no income yield. Not saying it will never happen, but I just don't see gold price going (or staying) below USD$500 anytime soon.
yes, I think silver at $15 is very funny. At $5 it would be hilarious. But the idiots that deny the markets are rigged are the ones that really make me laugh. I can laugh, because during the entire gimmick I get richer (in oz, Kg, tonnes, acres, bbl, btu, bushels, shares, etc.) while so many are hypnotized by the fake paper $ price, trying to make a buck. And then, there's the real geniuses that discovered that you can actually go short silver to make a buck too! Real studs... Now, my neigbours on each side are billionaires. One of them being one the richest family in Australia. Our kids play together and we talk business and life and vino. With the way iron ore is going, their "wealth" has been dropping by 50% (in $). But you know what, they don't give a shit.... Because that's just not how they value wealth. They haven't lost anything. They have income streams, and they accumulate biz, Kg, acres, tonnes, bbl, btu, bushels, shares, etc. It keeps going up no matter what. Tey're delusional, according to wcrmad. of course they are :lol: for many generations! So, while you are stuck in a engineered trading range in $ (could last 5 years) hoping that one day you make a buck, I have been making 35% in gold/oil this year (in gold weight and bbl) . real delusional I don't do wealth allocation according to predictions, because I don't give a shit what I or you think where the price is going. It's irrelevant, and this is why the media keep pushing it on you. And you believe it. All that count is what is cheaper and what is more expensive, in biz, Kg, tonnes, acres, bbl, btu, bushels, shares, etc. (and in $ too, but it's just another asset, and a shit one). , So when I play that stupid "pick the bottom" game that everyboby like to do here, that's all this is. I think now is the bottom in silver. and if it goes to $10, it will be the bottom, and at $5 too. Because I don't give a shit and it doesn't matter. You are using toilet paper to value real wealth, and can't wait to dump real wealth so you can have more toilet paper. Victory!!! You want to know why the rich get richer and the poor stay poor? Because you think $ (debt) is wealth, and the rich don't. wake up!
True words. I feel like the last several months especially have been amazing for anyone like me who was starting to seriously accumulate.
