$3,000 Gold Thread.

Discussion in 'Gold' started by JulieW, Apr 24, 2020.

  1. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2010
    Messages:
    13,408
    Likes Received:
    2,703
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    Bank of America says The :
    Fed Can't Print Gold, so...

    Bank of America (BofA) has raised its gold price forecast to $US3000 ($4751.10) an ounce over the next 18 months in a report titled, ‘The Fed can’t Print Gold’.

    This is a 50 per cent jump on its previous 18-month target of $US2000 an ounce.

    BofA predicted that the precious metal could reach the price of $US2063 by 2021, which translates to $3267.63 at the exchange rate at the time of writing.

    Gold is forecast to average $US1695 an ounce this year.

    The BofA analysts noted, however, that the appreciation of the US Dollar, reduced volatility in the equity market and weak jewellery demand in China and India could hold back the forecast gold price.

    “As economic output contracts sharply, fiscal outlays surge, and central bank balance sheets double, fiat currencies could come under pressure,” BofA analysts including Michael Widmer and Francisco Blanch said in the report.

    “Beyond traditional gold supply and demand fundamentals, financial repression is back on an extraordinary scale.

    “Rates in the US and most G-10 economies will likely be at or below zero for a very long period of time as central banks attempt to push inflation back above their targets. … Investors will aim for gold.”

    The Perth Mint chief executive Richard Hayes said this was a very attractive time for Australian gold miners.

    “We refine almost all of Australia’s gold and we’re certainly seeing that miners continue to be very busy, producing as much gold as they can,” ​
     
  2. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,444
    Likes Received:
    954
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Great Western Country
    For goldstackers too...
     
  3. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    2,690
    Likes Received:
    986
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seedeneey
    "The BofA analysts noted, however, that the appreciation of the US DollaR"

    I think they meant

    "The BofA analysts noted, however, that the DEPRECIATION of the US Dollar"

    Thx to Donald... he'll go down in US history!
     
  4. hardyakkagold

    hardyakkagold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2020
    Messages:
    46
    Likes Received:
    69
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Forget about $3000 gold that price target is obsolete on eBay already.
    I saw a common 2020 bullion 1/10 oz. Kangaroo coin sell on there for $450 today!
    And a common Perth mint 1 ounce ingot went for $3600 yesterday.
    I wish fleaBay would bring back that $1 weekend selling special, so that some of us could capitalise
    on the current sellers market on there.
     
  5. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    2,690
    Likes Received:
    986
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seedeneey
    JulieW meant USD, not AUD
     
    stackmans and JulieW like this.
  6. Lucky

    Lucky Active Member

    Joined:
    May 27, 2011
    Messages:
    307
    Likes Received:
    36
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Perth Western Australia
    How much does it cost you to sell something on EBay? I’ve never done it before .
     
  7. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2011
    Messages:
    1,444
    Likes Received:
    954
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Great Western Country
    up to 15%...
     
    Lucky likes this.
  8. hardyakkagold

    hardyakkagold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2020
    Messages:
    46
    Likes Received:
    69
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I think it is 10.9% normal selling fee, but then there is the PayPal fee as well on top, so yes close to 15% altogether.
    You can get two items listed for free with no final value fees every month, if you list the item on gumtree first.
    But it is a slow way to sell, especially if you have lots of items you wish to unload quickly.
     
    pi and Lucky like this.
  9. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2018
    Messages:
    3,495
    Likes Received:
    3,925
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Oz
    https://www.abcbullion.com.au/investor-centre/pdf/you-cant-print-gold#.XqPsEGeP7mU

    You Can’t Print Gold
    24 April 2020

    Precious Metals Commentary
    Gold edged higher this week to $1,726 with more than 4.4 million Americans filing a new jobless benefits claim. That takes the total to 26 Million Americans filing for unemployment in just the last five weeks, and still, the stock market edged higher.

    Silver is tracking sideways around the USD$15.00 per ounce level, yet to make up its mind on whether to join gold or remain uncoupled. Gold for local investors is ending the week just above $2,700 as the AUD/USD trades at 0.635 with silver flat at $24.00 per ounce.

    On a technical level the recent highs of USD$1,743 will need to be cleared to give some confidence to the bulls, but overall the moving averages remain in a bullish alignment and gold remains in a strong upward trend.

    Equities seem to remain completely unfazed by the horrible employment numbers being printed globally, but we expect this to change at some point soon.

    [​IMG]

    Gold to $3,000

    A report from the Bank of America that revised their gold price forecast to $3,000 by October 2021 got a lot of coverage this week – in both gold markets and mainstream media.

    The rationale for the call is increased government deficits, and a doubling of central bank balance sheets as they underwrite that government spending, putting pressure on fiat currency values as interest rates are forced to remain near or below zero.

    With interest rates below inflation, inflation that central banks are determined to create, the Bank of America says that such “financial repression is back on an extraordinary scale” and thus “investors will aim for gold”.

    These are issues that many in the gold market, and us, have been talking about for some time but it is not something that has been on the radar of mainstream investors. For us, the significance of the Bank of America report is not the $3,000 forecast but the fact that it came from a mainstream source and got picked up by conventional media.
    What puts a fire under the price of gold is money flowing in from first-time investors. This is what happened in the global financial crisis (GFC) and it provided the fuel for gold to peak out at $1,920 in 2011.

    It has been our contention that gold’s 50% move from its (in hindsight) bottom of $1,050 in late 2015 to $1,600 pre-corona has been below the (mainstream) radar and driven by:
    • Institutional “smart money”
    • Central bank accumulation
    • Additions by existing holders of precious metals
    The coronavirus situation has moved the market into a new phase as it has been the trigger to move two groups of new buyers into action:
    • those who were already considering buying gold
    • those who had general concerns about stock markets and low interest rate on cash, but hadn’t yet looked at gold

    As coronavirus drags on it will result in a new group of gold buyers – investors who previously did not question stock valuations or the outlook for the economy but who will now be concerned not just about the short-term impact of lockdowns but also come to realise that the problems behind the global financial crisis have not been fixed and may now come to fruition.

    We have mentioned previously the massive increase in demand we have seen at ABC Bullion but another metric is number of accounts opened. The chart below indexes the weekly number of new accounts to our normal baseline rate.

    [​IMG]
    You can see a slight build in numbers towards the end of 2019 as the gold price broke out but as Australia went into increasing restrictions new accounts ballooned out to ten times our normal rate.

    A majority of those new accounts have purchased but many are waiting on the sidelines as they get familiar with the gold and silver markets – which is what we normally see – and they will turn into buyers in time, providing continued demand.

    Undoubtably this is the pattern that has been seen by bullion dealers in other countries, with each at a different phase aligning with the coronavirus case count and social restrictions.

    Change in Psychology

    Some may argue that gold will come off when coronavirus restrictions are lifted or reduced but we feel that coronavirus has permanently changed investor psychology. We see this in more and more commentary questioning the power of central bankers to fix things.

    For example, Rabobank noted that the Wall Street Journal, the pre-eminent paper of record for financial markets, recently observed that the Federal Reserve chairman said that their recent interventions “will retreat when the virus plague is over. But that is what the Fed also said during the financial panic, and it never did come close to normalizing policy”.

    In that note Rabobank asked how is it free-market capitalism if the Federal Reserve “is going to backstop everything whenever it looks like investors might lose money” and that “this is moral hazard and/or central planning being carved into the bedrock of the US financial system”.

    Will investors be able to read comments from billionaire hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb that central bank actions “simply prop up asset prices in the short term and perhaps offer a reprieve to market participants who profited handsomely for years by using excessive debt to give the illusion of high returns” and go back to thinking that everything is awesome?

    [​IMG]
    Sure, investors will play along with central banks - as exemplified by investment manager BlackRock, who recently said they “will follow the Fed and other DM central banks by purchasing what they’re purchasing” – but this “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance” (link) attitude is in our opinion a very unstable setup.

    Thinking this way is an explicit acknowledgement that fundamentals have been thrown out the door. It is a game that can continue for some time, and we’d argue it has been going on since the 2008 GFC, but it becomes increasingly risky as more and more people question it and begin to look for the door.

    The fact that the title of the Bank of America report was "The Fed can't print gold" and that they called gold the “ultimate store of value” in our opinion is how this shift in perceptions is happening right now.

    Gold Protection
    A good example of the role gold can play in a portfolio in these uncertain times comes from Melbourne based investment management firm Cor Capital, which has a 25% allocation to gold.

    The chart below comes from their latest fund update and compares their fund’s performance against the stock market and typical balanced fund allocation.

    [​IMG]
    Cor Capital’s gold allocation provided it with protection from the recent carnage, with a 12-month return to the end of March of +8.1% compared to -14.4% for the ASX200 Accumulation Index.

    We aren’t necessarily suggesting a 25% allocation to gold or silver is for everyone – that works for Cor Capital as it is part of a considered and disciplined strategy – but we would say that having no allocation to gold is not prudent.

    Just as one cannot say which snowflake will be the one to trigger an avalanche, it is impossible to predict the exact trigger point when the current “follow the Fed” game of musical chairs will end.

    In such situations we think it is smart to have a gold chair to sit on when the music stops.

    Until next time,

    John Feeney and Bron Suchecki
    ABC Bullion
     
    jultorsk, PM, Applesmfc and 3 others like this.
  10. Bullion_ron

    Bullion_ron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    1,071
    Likes Received:
    497
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    Gold's getting smashed today, any ideas as to why?

    And just after I bought like 3oz :(
     
    66rounds likes this.
  11. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,185
    Likes Received:
    974
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    Stock Market continuing to rise, AUD continuing to rise and price fatigue/consolidation. $1735 USD Gold seems like a key level that is creating some resistance and thus consolidation.
     
    66rounds and Bullion_ron like this.
  12. Aurora et luna

    Aurora et luna Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2009
    Messages:
    6,622
    Likes Received:
    2,420
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Sydney
  13. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2018
    Messages:
    3,495
    Likes Received:
    3,925
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Oz
    ^^^^^^
    Now that is interesting. Thumbs up for posting.
     
  14. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,187
    Likes Received:
    1,239
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    The Australian government shouldn't provoke China. The way to deal with Chinese people is through actions, and not words. Don't respond, don't talk. Just do it. Don't give any notice, and don't give any explanation.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2020
    jultorsk likes this.
  15. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2016
    Messages:
    563
    Likes Received:
    703
    Trophy Points:
    93
    I think I like this. At first sentence I was bristling a bit as I'm never a fan of appeasement. The rest makes perfect sense, though. "Just doing" is much better as this would put China on the back foot; they would need to react and admit (publicly complain) that they do not like something - which I suppose could be perceived as losing face. Simple advice that makes a lot of sense.
     
  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,731
    Likes Received:
    1,942
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    Bullion_ron and madaw1 like this.
  17. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,731
    Likes Received:
    1,942
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    bold move by China

    Trump Threatens China Seeking $160 Billion In “COVID-19 Reparations”after China Gold Exchange Calls For New Super Sovereign Currency
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020...-billion-covid-19-reparationsafter-china-gold
     
  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,731
    Likes Received:
    1,942
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    UPDATE 1-Russian central bank sees no need to restart gold buying
    https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...-no-need-to-restart-gold-buying-idUSL8N2CH06S


    MOSCOW, April 29 (Reuters) - Russia’s central bank sees no current need to restart purchases of gold for its reserves, it said in a letter to an association of Russian banks, a copy of which was seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

    The association previously asked the central bank to resume buying gold as, it said, exports of the precious metal were hobbled by the coronavirus outbreak that has grounded passenger flights used to transport the metal.

    The central bank suspended gold buying for its reserves on April 1, when it held 73.9 million troy ounces of gold with a value of $120 billion.

    “The central bank does not see it expedient at the current time to resume regular purchases of gold in the domestic market,” it said in the letter to the National Finance Association, the non-government lobby group of Russian banks.

    The central bank confirmed the authenticity of the letter to Reuters.

    The central bank also said there was no need for it to start accepting gold pledged as collateral for the refinancing of banks’ debt or organising gold swap deals.

    It added it would continue to monitor the situation in both the global gold market and the banking sector.

    Last week Russia, the world’s third largest gold producer after China and Australia, agreed to start providing full export rights for miners to export gold, instead of one-off rights, to support them in shipping metal overseas independently. (Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya; Writing by Polina Devitt; Editing by Jason Neely and Alex Richardson)
     
  19. OneDay

    OneDay Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2013
    Messages:
    193
    Likes Received:
    65
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Australia
    A weird thing happened to me today. Walking through a shopping mall for some supplies when a security guard came up and started talking about the coming super inflation and America's money printing.

    He then proceeded to go on about the importance of owning gold etc etc etc. Going remember I'm telling you this now and you'll see this in the future... Buy Gold!

    I couldn't help but give a chuckle and thank him for giving me the heads up and I've never heard of "Bullion" before but I may look it up.

    So weird being on the receiving end of this lecture.
     
    Silver260, jultorsk, Markco2 and 4 others like this.
  20. SuprmeLeadr

    SuprmeLeadr Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2019
    Messages:
    70
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I was on a personal Zoom call with some friends in NY who all work in finance, and one of the guys was going on about buying gold and how in 1 years' time merchants will only accept gold bars for goods.
    This coming from the ETF VIX bought on margin crew. It really is clown world out here
     
    66rounds and openeyes like this.

Share This Page