2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    USA-China trade war, technological sanctions beginning...




    This is going to get a lot worse. I suppose the EU will go with the US, then China will also "withhold technology": they'll tell us we'll have to learn how to make shoes, laptops, watches, microwave ovens, sunglasses, shirts, even shoe strings.

    The west doesn't even know how to make shoestrings.

    And now that Germany is de-industrializing I ask myself, how low can this degenerate, how will the West live? Will the West become am agricultural 3rd world dystopian "superpower"?
     
  2. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Yet another dystopian "collapse" scenario film sequence (from Japan) - let me know if you know the title of the film:




    * dead ATM's, so all that's left is the little cash at hand
    * people barter items to get food and medicine
    * no fuel, the only way to get around is by bike or on foot
    * no electricity, no machines work whatsoever
    * no running water, no drinking water
    * people will barter their most expensive items for food, water and vital equipment
    * theft is rampant
    * people struggle a lot to find food
    * animals go "nuts" as people don't feed them (they turn wild, organize in packs and start attacking people)
     
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  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Natural gas futures - the price was higher twice in the 2006-2008 period (the previous major crisis), not sure if that means we shouldn't worry, but in terms of price, the international markets
    have already been here.

    [​IMG]

    US interest rates are just above 3%, but I think the Fed might elevate it above 5% in 1-3 years time (again, we've been there in 2007 at above 5.2%), that would make the US dollar even more attractive
    than the EUR, which is the main rival. 5% interest rate would still be acceptable.

    The US dollar will be stronger next year after this cold winter shakes Europe and more EUR gets dumped on the international market.
    CHF is already up (many Europeans are investing in CHF as the EUR is slipping down the slippery slope), but I think the NOK might get stronger within 1 year (Europe is buying more Norwegian gas, the EU
    is said to be planning to help Ukraine by giving them Norwegian gas - probably for free, if the Russians stop the gas flow to them during this winter), so buying a few NOK bills for diversification might be a
    good idea.

    I expect speculative assets like crypto to dive lower towards the end of the year, people will not buy crypto massively soon - high end product sales are down, car sales are down, people don't buy any used
    items ("garage sales" not doing well), pretty much everyone is focusing on what's vital (food, bills, basic necessities).

    Gold and silver prices might go lower - because the coming months, probably years will be the dollar's strong period.

    What comes after all these is probably a thick CRAP storm. Politicians are stupid enough to undermine the economies successfully.
    International trade is down, overall consumption is down (so is tourism and transportation) and if all that's down, then there is only one way the economies can go: DOWN.

    We need Noah's Ark now, not the captain of the Titanic to bring us out of this mess.
     
  4. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Dont worry we have Ole Diaper Joe at the helm here. What could go wrong.
    He was probably the Captian of a ship between being a truck driver and working in the factories in Indiana after graduating top of his class, just forgot to mention it.
     
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  5. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Of course :D

    And, just in case something goes wrong, "good girl" Kamala Camel C*nt takes the wheel over! No worries :D
     
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  6. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep the shit show is amazing to watch and i get a few laughs every day.
    Just imagine if this happened in the animal kingdom! Everything would go extinct!
     
  7. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The Titanic?
     
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  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    More government, higher prices in the UK?

     
  9. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Several reasons why you see empty shelves and why you simply can't find (or can't find enough) of various products:
    1. shops only stock a handful of certain products, because they know people won't pay their high prices
    2. production costs + transportation costs + storage costs all add up, so that the final product is so expensive the producers decide not to make them anymore (no return on investment, makes no sense making them)
    3. demand went down for a series of products, which means: >> less demand means less quantities sold >> less scale economies >> higher price per unit
    4. people's focus has turned towards the basic items and services (food, fuel and energy, medicals etc.), which means less demand for other products, which makes those less demanded products (generally) more expensive or scarce
    5. inflation in one country rises production costs >> affects the end product being delivered to other countries (I wonder how much coconuts from Sri Lanka would cost... if they can get delivered at all)
    6. expensive products take longer to sell >> higher costs with stocks >> sellers decide not to stock them, because it takes ages to find someone to buy them
    7. certain food products cost a lot due higher packaging costs as well (glass jars, printed cardboard milk boxes are all more expensive)


    Besides mere energy crisis, supply chain interruption and inflation, there's a myriad of other reasons why we see less products on the shelves.

    Still, I think this is a great opportunity to buy certain products. I've mentioned before that DSLR cameras, professional photo and video gear, mid-range to expensive brand wristwatches are more affordable (the ones in the 400-1,500 $ range), expensive headphones (400+ $ category) are cheaper than ever, there's a plethora of hotel discounts.

    Laptops, smartphones, airline flights are more expensive. So are cars. Demand is high, chips are scarce, fuel is expensive...
    For some reason, branded mid-range sunglasses and expensive sunglasses are darn expensive (prices went up). I wonder why? Production costs?
     
  10. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Royal Mint prepares for life after cash with plan to sell collectable coins abroad
    Mint switches focus to previous [sic] metals as Britain becomes an increasingly cashless society

    By Simon Foy 17 November 2022 • 11:42am

    The Royal Mint is planning for life after cash after it hired two executives with experience in luxury products to sell collectable coins abroad.

    Britain’s oldest company, which is the official manufacturer of UK coins, has appointed luxury retail executives Matthew Woolsey and Lisa Montague to its board as Britain increasingly becomes a cashless society.

    The wholly state-owned company has supplied the country’s coins since the reign of King Alfred the Great during the ninth century, but has expanded into sales of precious metals, historic coins, jewellery and luxury collectibles in recent times.

    It comes after the Royal Mint posted record pre-tax profits of £18m last year after it was boosted by investors seeking shelter from riskier assets by snapping up gold and increased sales of commemorative coins.

    The company, which is based in south Wales, sells gold coins and stamped bars, as well as “slivers” of the metal that can be purchased by smaller investors and stored in its vault.

    Anne Jessopp, chief executive of the Royal Mint, said: “We have ambitious international growth plans as the home of precious metals, building on the success we’ve secured in the last year and we feel their expertise will help us further accelerate our overseas growth.

    “Our vision is to be a leader in sustainable precious metals, and we have a number of initiatives already in motion as we strive towards this ambition, but having the expertise of both Matthew and Lisa supporting us will be invaluable and I look forward to working closely with them moving forwards.”

    Mr Woolsey is currently managing director of Hydrow, a rowing machine maker having previously served as managing director at fashion giant Net-a-Porter.

    Ms Montague is chief executive of Sanderson Design Group, having previously worked for both Mulberry and Loewe

    In recent weeks, the Royal Mint’s focus has turned to creating coins bearing King Charles III’s image.

    It comes as the UK increasingly shifts to becoming a cashless society, forcing the Royal Mint to find growth opportunities elsewhere.

    Earlier this year former chancellor Rishi Sunak instructed the Royal Mint to create a “non-fungible token” (NFT) in a step the Government said was “an emblem of the forward-looking approach the UK is determined to take”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...life-cash-plan-sell-collectable-coins-abroad/
     
  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Ze French are protesting, freezing, on strike, riding bikes like Chinese (because there is gasoline shortage and it's too expensive anyway) but still overly proud and trying to go through the wall with their stubborn heads forward.




    Are we headed to "you will own nothing and be happy"? :eek:

    People use more electricity than ever before. What happens? >>> Higher electricity bills and blackouts.
     
  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Protesting with the boot already on the face. Seems to work so well haha.
     
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  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  14. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Can’t get enough of that kent his analogies are amazing. “We’re like ticks on an old cow!” Haha
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I switch off when I hear "reset".
     
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  16. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Uncle Schwab and Witch Lagarde might end up with a blue screen sponsored by Bill Gates himself - za reset might not go through as planned :D :D :D

    It'll hit them like a BRIC wall :D :D :D
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Reset is one of the filters I use to reduce the daily clutter I sort through in trying to find meaning in what I observe. You see I have this constant mental algorithm going on in my head. Mainly based upon word association. ;)

    References to Klaus Schwab by conspiracy theorists is another. Bill Gates gets though when the conversation is about nuclear energy. BRICs also gets through when the conversation is about investment potential in emerging markets. Putin gets blocked when the MSM tries to spin propaganda about the war etc etc.

    Lagarde
    however is not on my list as I can't ignore her influence as President of the England and Wales Cricket Board.
     
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  18. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I just look at what they’re selling and if the business model profits from a certain narrative then it becomes part of ‘silver trash tv’, a playlist that sounds the same 10 years later but like a fan of neighbours and home & away who really cares, you can jump in whenever and it’s still reliable trashy entertainment. I’m a sucker for it
     
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  19. Tactile

    Tactile Active Member

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    I don't have a solid depth of understanding of the whole Euro energy market, but I do follow industry there fairly closely, particularly Germany & France. Germany's transition to LNG is coming along nicely so access to energy wont be a problem for them it's just a question whether their industry & manufacturing can survive with the higher energy costs or will they have to offshore to other countries that have access to cheaper energy. My bet was on a lot of German brands shifting to the US/Mexico as many already do (VW, Benz, BMW), but lately Macron is pushing the EU to bring them to France, so it will be interesting to see how that all goes.

    Germany's first LNG terminal should be up and running in the next month or so. Bit of reading here & here...

    Germany had a relatively warm start to winter and combined with lower usage due to the high gas prices, their storage levels for the rest of the winter are fine. Next winter they will be fully online with LNG.

    To sum up, I think the reports of Europeans freezing to death en masse are exaggerated! But what happens to their economy and employment (and therefore, political stability) in the longer term is another story...
     
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  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Apparently Germany dipped into their gas reserves last week for the first time this winter. Same chatter I was listening to said that countries like Hungary and Slovakia are most at risk while Netherlands, Denmark, Germany etc aren't though it would only take one really bad week to test the reserves.
     

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