2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes Idaho - Oregon was for weekend trips to the weed dispensaries at the border - 40 mins drive (miss those essential services...), and I certainly wasn’t being overly cautious on top of being surrounded by it (but being a single guy at that time I didn’t spend huge amounts of hours indoors with people except at work which was very corporate-covid strict). I had a few notable colds there and never got tested.. might have got the original strain in the early days without symptoms? The whole thing confuses me… I was back in Melbourne by the time Delta took off. Either way I keep reminding my friend that dodging it around the world only to get it from him on Xmas day makes him a special cnt! The two other mates living with him also got it but my GF who I spent the following 3 days with was fine.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2022
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  2. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    mining bitcoin, no way
     
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    So, you believe it could drop below 30 k. I also think it MIGHT go as low as 10 k.

    Picking the bottom is almost impossible. But I think what we are seeing now is just a bounce. It is going to test the 30 k level soon.

    The bottom might be lower or somewhere there. After the bottom is reached, the sideways trading might not take long. And this market is faster than the PM market, so I expect it to climb steeply next time.

    So, you need to be lucky and have nerves for picking the bottom.
     
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  4. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The only thing picking bottoms is good for is getting smelly fingers...
    The pattern will just be short squeeze -> dump -> short squeeze -> dump etc until the market is sufficiently deleveraged and gamblers are burned out. Then fundamentals should take over again. It's still a multi-year process.
     
  5. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Yep onto bigger and better things now. That was fun while it lasted.
     
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  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Same thoughts as me, I might buy some crypto linked stock like coinbase if the price of bitcoin falls to 10k. Have to do some research on what other stocks. Microstrategy?

    Nerves are not needed, just patience. Same like platinum, need patience....
     
  7. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    The incoming death cross for btc looks ugly and no strength.
     
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    History repeating?

     
  9. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    If it goes to 10 k, I think it will not take many years until it slams through 100 k. People have already gotten used to the oscillations, so I think it might bounce back up faster than we think.

    10 k will probably not last for long. There are too many players in the game right now and the adoption rate has accelerated.

    This is not 2014.
     
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  10. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This kind of speculation requires Bitcoin to hold the throne as it always has. I'm curious this year to see how the market cap of competitor alts go as a % to BTC, and it should become clear this cycle what kind of alts will survive or not. I think the risk to BTC is that alts could erode the % dominance by alts optimising and filling niches in the market, so the total crypto market cap keeps climbing but for BTC it becomes death by 1000 cuts - or BTC settles into it's own niche which doesn't fuel explosive growth. OR the demand for a digitised sound money overwhelms the market in favour of BTC.

    I see a lot of cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias on this forum by members who think they have sophisticated knowledge of crypto that transcends traditional market wisdom. And whilst I agree many of the successful crypto investors here do understand the mechanics better than most, it is still within an insulated 'bubble'. Look at Raoul Pal, a mega-rich crypto socialite with his fingers in just about every pie. And he made some of the most tragically stupid calls in December '21. ETH should be 10k this week and 50k plus 'the flippening' happening right now. He should be hiding in shame for this nonsense, but no he fronts up to his YouTube audience pushing NFT's for $4k a pop and looks as drunk on excitement as he ever has been. And he's probably got it in the bag again, because all we will hear soon is how those early-bird adopters made absurd sums of money flipping them. Ignoring the fact that plenty of Mum & Pop investors just threw little Johnny's college funds into ETH based on one of his YouTube videos.

    Given the unpredictability and volatility of today's markets, it just pays to be diversified. Buffett's advice of having just a few investments that you understand completely might not be the ultimate strategy for these times, where markets just don't make sense and the leverage is insane. Just have your surfboard ready for whichever wave starts to swell.

    This is beer talking.
     
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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Beer making good sense there.
     
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  12. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Saison Dupont 075.jpg
     
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  13. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    A very interesting interview by Alessio Rastani. It seems like the "experts" believe it can go down to 30 k or lower and might even bounce back in a few months and surpass previous highs just that fast.




    My personal opinion is that if it goes down to 10 k, then we might not see 100 k this year. Even 50-60 k would be a major event after such a correction.

    Checking the fiat currencies, it seems like the best performing one is the Swiss Franc (still, fiat), but the Euro and USD are threatened by devaluation due to the currently unveiling inflation crisis in the USA and the EU.
    So, Europeans (especially) run to buy Swiss Francs. I also include the investors, the "every day Joe"...

    If Bitcoin and Ethereum correct powerfully, then they will be pushed up by all the inflation-fearing people. Adoption will increase, the price will also climb.

    Just a naive thing that occurred to me: couldn't China, Russia and Iran spend their remaining "piles" of USD on the crypto markets? :D
     
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  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    China probably needs those USD as assets on its CB balance sheet.
     
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Swiss franc looks good. I don't think I'll be buying any crypto in any big quantity even if there's a big correction. Maybe proxy stocks like coinbase.
     
  16. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    How will crypto react when Putin has enough of NATOs games and marches on Kiev? I expect Xi will reclaim Taiwan around the same time.
     
  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Russia is stupid enough to invade Ukraine:
    - both sides would have massive losses and the conflict would drag on for years
    - Ukraine doesn't have important resources, but it has a huge poor population with tremendous social, economic problems: anyone who swallows the Ukraine will end up in a mess
    (and, grabbing this huge country that's in a social-economic mess, Russia will have headaches, it would drag Russia down)
    - this would confirm the "fear of the West" and it would confirm the fact that "Russia is a mad dog bully", meaning that it will put an end to their credibility for 100+ years
    - the Russian economy would be crippled by a major war for decades, possibly it could lead to Russia's collapse on the longer term if other conflicts arise (vs Central Asian, Caucasian countries or China, USA)
    - if Russian has huge losses, then this will lead to internal turmoil within Russia and the government's days would be numbered, the population might even side with the West

    I don't think it would happen.

    As for China to swallow Taiwan:
    - yes, it can do it in 24 hours
    - Taiwan is peanuts for China, yes, they can do it
    - yep!
    - sure, 100% - just see what happened to Tibet

    In fact, I think it is just a question of time WHEN China swallows Taiwan.

    Next on the list: Mongolia, Siberia... maybe later a few -Istan's as well.
     
  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's stupid for Russia to invade Ukraine, but is Putin smart enough not to do that? That's the question. Biden has been insulting and taunting him and if Putin doesn't follow through, he will lose a lot of "credibility" among his supporters. It's like the US deployed a large army in Saudi arabia in 1991, but in the end, pulls out without doing anything.

     
  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I am sure they are not stupid enough to invade Ukraine. Biden is more stupid than Putin and overall the US is more stupid (think of all the wars it started from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Iraq... lately even the Afghanistan war was a total failure).

    But, the US might keep pressuring and provoking Russia and they will push them into a conflict. Russia will feel forced to "punch back". And that's when WW 3 starts. Or, even if not WW 3, then a massive war, total disaster in which everybody loses.

    We can only hope that they are not so stupid and that we have peace and nothing happens.

    It is amazing how much was sacrificed and how many people died (in vain) in Afghanistan. And now the US has left a hornet's nest in the back of China, the -Istan's and Iran.

    Anything the US has touched in the last century has turned into sh*t. Inverse-Midas. Show me just one place that has thrived and became super-happy and peaceful after having gone through the "demonocracy export".

    Sometimes it's best if nothing happens.
     
  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't know if Biden is more stupid than Putin, but he is certainly much more ruthless. Look at how he treats his own children and you know he couldn't care less about anyone else. The abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan just shows how ruthless he is, but being ruthless is necessary today. Afghanistan has no more purpose for the Americans, and staying on for even one more day only consumes attention and energy. My feeling is there's a good chance Putin will fall into the trap Biden has laid.
     
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