2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    It's a cat vs dog atomizing and chaotic multipolar world that's unraveling.
    People without conscience in positions of power push anything ahead in front of our eyes, but packaged in a false narrative.

    The masses have already lost their sense of reality.
     
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  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    If you think that’s never happened before then you’re an idiot.
     
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Could gold crash like in 2013?

    Gary Wagner's video is very interesting - although someone working for Kitco will never admit there might be a major correction coming, he does have a somewhat
    negative attitude and gives signs that it could happen (another gold crash).

    The video is really worth watching, I recommend it.

    Gold price closely mirrors 2011; is a crash coming with no recovery? Gary Wagner


    It is interesting how Gary Wagner presents the possible bearish downtrend and he says "but that might change", which underlines that this is rather a hope-based
    affirmation for the permabull Kitco.

    I personally think there's a high chance for a price crash:
    - technical analysis points out to bearish environment coming (yes, there is a triangle of uncertainty on the charts, but uncertainty it general uncertainty, it doesn't
    say the downtrend is uncertain)
    - if you watch the macroeconomic trends and social trends: Biden is in power now (apparent political stability), the vaccinations are undergoing (yet, slowly), the
    economies are starting to show more and more positive signals (GDP growth)
    - I doubt Biden will start his "rule" with massive QE (it is really now needed at this stage)

    The permabulls said gold will surge back in 2011, 2012, 2013... the "recovery" lasted 7 years.

    I think there's a strong possibility for gold to sink down to the 1,700's, even all the way down to the 1,500's.

    What do you think?
     
  4. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I doubt so, gold is still very cheap. Look at bitcoin, something that don’t exist worth $40k. Of course, silver is even cheaper but all relative. One thing I noticed is the market now likes it when it don’t exist, because when it doesn’t exist, it can’t be valued. As in you can’t hold a piece of bitcoin and say it’s too expensive for a small coin.
     
  5. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I somewhat agree, but there are substantially different force behind both of them. The markets are different. Bitcoin is a pseudo-asset and it's highly volatile.

    Gold is for intelligent people. :D
     
  6. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Uneducated Economist:
    The Dollar Strength Maybe On The Verge Of A Channel Trending Reversal

     
  7. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is an interesting channel.^^

    Comment section...
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Lol. Doomsayers and hand wringers.

    He wrote that in 1968 and predicted the famines and catastrophic deaths of hundreds of millions to occur during the 70's. By 1980 there were in excess of an extra 900 000 000 million people living on Earth and poverty levels had declined by about 20%. Erlich made a lot of money selling doom and gloom books.
     
  9. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well - he's talking about Cuba. As in, post-USSR collapse Cuba - where folks woke up one day and found socialism/communism/Marxism was not feeding them anymore.

    Anyway, here's some funnies instead. :p

    139955068_783722575685689_4603509204606398709_n.jpg EtkkcIDXEAEfzZb.jpeg
     
  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I don’t live in Cuba. ;)
     
  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  12. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Bank of England says banks will need six months to prepare for negative rates
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/04/ban...est-rates-and-asset-purchases-unchanged-.html

    "LONDON — The Bank of England said Thursday British banks will need at least six months to prepare for a shift into negative interest rates.
    The BOE asked British banks in October about their preparedness for negative interest rates, having revealed in September that it was exploring the possibility of taking rates below zero if necessary."

    Perhaps it's negative interest rates that will determine people to move their money into hard assets and crypto. Real estate is probably not the best option right now.

    What do you think?

    I think it's a coming trend - I've heard references to coming negative interest rates in Europe in recent months. I expect some EU countries to introduce negative rates in 2021-2023, but perhaps by
    next year we will be able to see the effects.

    1-2 major countries (like the UK, for instance) might go ahead. But then this will strongly impact PM prices, because people will take their money out of the banks. Then, I expect people from other countries to buy hard assets as well.

    Some are suggesting to get prepared for technical glitches as well: some banking systems might not be able to operate with negative rates (technically) - Y2K-like glitches might occur.

    Will negative interest rates survive for a long time?

    I see this as a hit rather, than a long period of time. Also because negative interest rates can barely function in an environment, where cash exists. In a cashless society they could indeed tax people into hell. SLAVERY.

    I'm curious about what you think.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2021
  13. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The cash will have to go into bulliion gold. Gold is the closest thing to cash in bank. Beware of fake gold, plentiful nowadays, financed by stimulus that is one time thingy.
     
  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    That is a relatively small decline and limited to Singapore.

    In Europe, there is a split situation:
    1. on one hand, millions have lost their jobs and their funds have decreased
    2. on the other hand, much more people still have their jobs and have increased savings at the banks (because of working from home, not paying for transportation,
    restaurants and vacations... their money got saved up!)

    In many European countries people have more savings than ever before.

    I think if the vaccinations go well and no monster-mutations occur, then the Corona era could end in a rabid shopping & traveling spree.

    This could even boost the global economy, realistically. A wealth transfer will occur, nevertheless. Some industries we ruined, others will get a strong boost.
    I think mega cities like New York and London will have tremendous commercial and office real estate collapses: once people have already tried working for home, they will never want to go back to the office!
     
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Since the gfc, the singapore government is very paranoid over inequality. Any small movements in property prices or prices of groceries, the clam down comes. Some sectors have in fact done very well, semiconductor, manufacturing, pharma but you don't find this on the news. Reason is because other sectors like tourism and retail have been hit so they don't want jealousy, not to mention many foreign workers stuck with family in pandemic stricken hometowns. Overall, I think this approach is good. It contrasts with what's happening in other countries.
     
  16. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The role of velocity of money in hyperinflation: when the velocity of money increases, the prices increase rapidly. This leads to the rapid loss of value.

    So, it's not just the quantity of money (the supply) that causes hyperinflation (as many believe), but the velocity at which money is being spent, because there's always
    an amount on which people just "sit" (for shorter or longer periods of time) etc.

    But, when people decide to get rid of their money fast, then the prices of products increase exponentially.

    Both the inflation of money supply and the increase of the velocity of money matter. These two are the ingredients of hyperinflation.



    Having checked Fred for the velocity of money, I'm perplexed to find that both M1 and M2 money supply has been going down for a long time (I am especially curious about the 2008-2021 period). It kept going down. And, now the pandemic has dragged it even further down.

    If there is any (reliable) source with fresh charts showing the velocity of money for multiple currencies, then let me know, please.

    If something ignites a massive dollar-selling (then, we know that that coupled with QE...), then run for the hard assets before the masses.
     
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  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I like the saying "when the music stops there wont be enough chairs." Pretty much sums it up.
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Velocity of money doesn't cause price rises, individual's buying preferences do.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    No, the ingredients for hyperinflation are the inability for a country to meet consumer demand because the economy has been trashed eg war ravaged, destruction of the social/economic system.
     
  20. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not if there are supply shocks
     
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