$100 an ounce for silver sucker?

Discussion in 'Silver Coins' started by shawn120, Oct 10, 2016.

  1. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    So the katadyne is the high premium semi-numi collector form of pocket filters....sans milk spot! Okay....that's good enough for me! :)



    Too bad about the proof Libs that developed spots. It seems that with many modern proof silver coins, some develop milk spots some don't. And apparently, the type of environmental control remedy you tried (which is a higher standard of protection than many seem to be using) appears to be ineffective.


    It also appears to me the coins with an antique finish and coins with a vapor blast finish (like on the U.S. ATB-P "Uncirculated" 5 oz. silver series) seem to be not having milk spotting issues. And if they do, to a much, much lesser degree.


    I have never seen milk spots on any of my silver Chinese medals. These may be among my most prized precious metals.




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  2. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    Dang silverpv. That totally sucks. Will you still be able to get your money back (break even) when you go to sell? Move motivation for me to stay away from silver and go with gold
     
  3. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    There's some good reasons to buy gold instead of silver but also there's some good reasons to buy silver over gold.

    Depending on one's plan, goals, circumstances, and wealth maybe there's some good reasons to have a mix of both silver and gold. I know that some PM advocates suggest that the way to go is to have approximately equal value of Ag/Au blobs in one's stack. That would mean, for example that over the past year, one would own approximately 75 ounces of silver blobs to 1 ounce of gold generic bullion.

    Some will say the ratio should be more heavily weighed toward a higher percentage in value of silver, some will say higher percentage in gold. I think it depends on the individual.


    Clearly there is a far, far, far, far greater variety of coins and medals that is available on the market that is made of silver rather than gold. Clearly silver is much more affordable than gold. There are other good reasons to buy (more) silver rather than gold. But on the other hand since gold's value is considerably greater, an equal value in these metals (in the form of blobs) means that gold is much more easily transportable and storable. That alone is good enough reason for some to prefer gold rather than silver.



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  4. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. I like gold better than silver for a few reasons. 1. One 1 oz piece of gold sold, is an instant $1400 (approx), vs. needing to sell 70 1 oz pieces of silver, which can take a long time, and if one chooses to do one at a time, lots of time, energy, packing and shipping. Not only that, you can take a handful of gold in your pocket as one is fleeing civil unrest, natural disaster, chaos, and instantly they can have 100's of thousands of dollars at their finger tips (you'd need a wheel barrel to carry the equivalent in silver). Gold is beautiful (although silver is too). It's recognizable. It is beloved by central banks (most anyway, minus are our crazy central bank - who probably buy it by the boat load for their personal safe). It doesn't corrode as easily as silver. So, there are a lot very good reasons to own gold over silver. I would take gold over silver all day, every day, even with the GSR at 72 or something crazy like that. Although, please note, I do have some silver. I own some thru ownx.com. And when the GSR should happen to hit 30 - 40, I will be selling the oz of silver to roll over into gold at the hit of a button. Very convenient. No ebay fees. No paypal fees. Just a few keyboard strokes, and presto, my XXX pieces of silver are sold, and moved to gold. Sweeeet.
     
  5. Silverpv

    Silverpv New Member

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    yes.. if i sold everything now, i'd be up. my cost was $770, i've already recouped $660 from selling 3 pf70's and 1 pf69. I think i'm just going to put them at auction and let them run to get rid of them before anything else happens. I still have 6 more. 2 spotted pf70's a pf68 and 3 pf69s, so I'll probably just run these out and get my money back from them. Lesson learned and a few bucks, but like you said it's a bit of work. This is one of the reasons i got those bars and toners. I pretty much don't want to deal with any modern semi-numismatic in the midterm unless its a 10ozer. I like both gold and silver. i own a bit of gold right now via JNUG @ $12. and some physical to back it up. I'm a bit down now but long term i think its fine.
     
  6. scrooged

    scrooged New Member

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    Who has a stamp collection that once upon a time was worth a lot more than it is today?

    I don't, but I'm sure there's thousands of collectors still out there wishing they'd taken the profit at hand.

    Slightly off topic, but what killed the demise of stamp collection? Lack of new punters coming through the ranks, a major financial catastrophe or something else?
    Curious, if anyone knows.
     
  7. Silverpv

    Silverpv New Member

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    That's easy, email and a generation that don't know that mailing things to each other is cool. Back in the day, we would have had to mail this to a news paper to communicate and wait. Now, we can talk to people all over the world instantly. Why would anyone see a stamp? Coins could face a similar demise but people have a natural inclination to metal.
     
  8. scrooged

    scrooged New Member

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    Thanks mate.

    A question though, if back in the day everyone knew about stamps (through seeing it daily or whatever) and as you say was big part of communication, does this not make the task of a future following (collecting) numastic silver more difficult purely through lack of exposure?

    If someone (the general population of the planet) doesn't know something exists to begin with, where does the next generation of followers (collectors) come from?

    Not having a go or anything mate, for reasons you've pointed out I think unless there is sustainable interest it can only go one way.
    Anything, doesn't matter what it is, with any dollar value associated with it can only go one of two ways, up or down. Interested vs. the Non Interested.

    I can't for the life of me see future generations being interested in numi silver.
     
  9. Stark

    Stark Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Milkspots are one of the reasons also for me to try to save some money and buy some gold. I like more silver than gold, and bigger pieces of it are far more affordable, but this milkspots are big problem.

    Last time I checked I had no Libertads with milkspots. But 3 coins that I bought recently, using Smartmint technique from CIT, one has already small milkspots.

    Some time ago I decided to repack my coins to save some space. To my tremendous disappointment 2 of my favorite coins (and also most expensive) seems to have milkspots. 1 really tiny one. It's 2014 Brittania 5oz.:///////

    On the other hand, depends of course how often you do this and other things, might be not so easy to sell 1oz of gold.
     
  10. mtforpar

    mtforpar Member

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    This spot problem is murderous on a silver investment strategy. It is hard enough to pick winners and losers to pick a big winner to find out spots have zapped any profit. I think the 1/10th gold market is a good play for semi-numi type stuff. The problem with the 1-ounce gold coins is the % ROI is much lower since it is very hard to double or triple your investment. Whereas, a 100 silver coin goes to $300 quite often.
     
  11. Silverpv

    Silverpv New Member

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    This generation is exposed to gold/silver believe it or not, but mainly in games. There is a whole economy in games to buy gold coins and gems in several games and collect things. The only thing is to bring it back to the real world and get people to see the real thing again. It would only take 1 or 2 celebs to show the real thing to make it popular with the younger generation. Stamps though, there's no trace of it left. We print our own stamps. Metal being something that is more difficult to get is more about 'branding' and awareness which a celeb can do.


    mtforpar: totally agree spots have totally driven away from coins now, because of this last return. They are terrible long hold plays if they spot all or most of the numismatic premium is lost.

    I also agree, I like 1/10 oz gold coins over 1 oz. But having a few 1 oz doesn't hurt. I generally like getting current year stuff and will focus heavily on lunars, pandas, and mmmmmaybe libertads they kinda suck quality wise. Otherwise, I like somali elephants now too and if I can get them on discount i'll go for those. The premiums can be recouped and red spots can be conserved
     
  12. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    In general, anything that is less desirable becomes less valuable per se. And certainly generations of young people growing up not having much interest in postage stamps seems to be the driving factor as to why many if not most philatelic items have decreased in value. That's not to say that all philatelic items have suffered and it's not to say that I haven't seen spurts of intense interest in certain philatelic items. For example, I've recently sold some brand new philatelic items on eBay and made a nice profit on the cost to me of the items.

    There's no reason to believe that the same can't happen to numismatic coins but at the same time, there's no good reason to believe that blobs of silver will have any real value at some point. It has been argued far and wide by silverbugs that back in time, silver could buy an enormous amount of goods or services for a tiny amount of silver. And it is for this reason that the permabull silverbugs have claimed that silver (rather than gold) is the metal worth having because tomorrow it will shoot to da moon and the value will return to it's alleged mean and you will again be able to buy enormous amounts of goods and services for the same weight of silver than was possible 2,000 years ago. Back in Roman times I believe, the price of a sheep is alleged to have ranged from 2.6 g to 16 g of silver. So according to these silvebugs, "tomorrow" you'll be able to buy a sheep with a few grams of silver. Now I'm not sure what planet silverbugs live on, but on earth that is a far fetched fantasy.

    So whether it's silver collector coins or silver blobs, there's no reason to believe that either will always have any meaningful value especially since silver is not money and will almost invariably never again function like money on earth for the vast majority of people much like seashells doesn't function like money any longer for the vast majority of people on earth.


    Now while there are similarities between the two types of collectables (collector stamps and collector coins), there are some important differences.

    One of the important differences between postage stamps and coins is the actual physical material it's made from. One from a pulp the other from metal. While both can be affected by the environment, pulps are generally far more susceptible to the environment than metals. As just one example, I've had an entire album of postage stamp sheets get damaged due to just a small amount of steam where if these were coins, likely little to no damage would have occurred. Even a low amount of heat can also be a serious problem for philatelic items and not for coins generally.

    I'm not saying that this difference is the reason why stamps are taking a major hit but coins can't, just that if I had equal interest in collector coins and stamps today, that physical difference would be a very important factor in where I allocate energy, time, and money for these interests.

    And of course one can always argue that with collector coins, there's always the threat of milk spots and milk spots is a physical thing so therefore collecting any numi-type coins is no different than collecting stamps. But that argument isn't valid and here's why:
    1) milk spots is not a physical characteristic of silver coins....milk spots are the result of a problematic manufacturing process for some mints that may to be traced as far back as around the 1990's
    2) with certain finishes on coins there is a much, much, less likelihood of milk spots developing. As just two obvious examples, the U.S. Mint 5 oz. silver ATB coins with the vapor-blast finish and coins with an antique finish
    3) one can buy silver collector coins/medals that will never develop milk spots


    If interest in coin collecting is seriously impacted by "lack of exposure" then the interest in stacking will also be seriously impacted by "lack of exposure". Why is that important? Because the value of silver no matter what form it takes (collector coins or blobs) lives and dies as a result of continuing (or not) desire for it. Neither form is inherently safe and neither form doesn't come with it's own risks of devaluation. There's zero intrinsic value in silver. 100% of it's value is attached by humans and driven by the level of desire by some to own it (demand). We know this is true because all the time we can see here in this forum and elsewhere, stackers claiming that silver blobs are are too expensive when it costs more than X amount. That x represents any amount. For some it's 18 for others it's 25, for others it's 32, and so on and so forth. If some stackers purchased silver when it was $4/oz, $8/oz for silver could very likely be silver that is over-valued.

    Silver is not insurance. Silver can be a very poor way to invest one's money compared to other ways in which to invest money. Silver can be a very poor store of value. Silver is not a panacea.




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  13. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    There is a lot of inherent value in silver. Just ask Apple to try to make iPhones or iPads without it. :)). Or ask the Chinese to make solar panels without. I think there are some 1000 uses for silver being applied all over the world today. Without it, electronics would cease to exist(??). Sounds like inherent value to me. Whereas gold is a hunk of metal that just sits. Sits in vaults, around the neck or wrist, etc...seems to me a poor store of value. LOL.

    Man, it sounds like we need to stay away from silver libertads too...bullion and proof silver. Yeah, what's a 5 oz proof libertad worth these days riddled with spots. I wouldn't even purchase one. Not even for spot. The same goes with my chinese coins: both fiat and non fiat. We are screwed where spots come on the scene.

    Hence why I like the hunk of gold (even in smaller increments 1/20 and 1/10). I haven't bought a single ounce of the Silver Lunars or Kooks (2017), and probably won't. Too afraid of spots.
     
  14. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    I agree, many modern silver coins produced since the 1990's? can develop milk spots and when they do, they are generally seen as permanent problem coins. They can lose much or all of their numi premium.

    But there are some modern silver coins that seem to not be developing milk spots due to the type of finish like vapor-blast and antique.

    Perhaps a bigger problem than milk spots is market over saturation. There are so many different types and varieties of silver coins on the market and a finite amount of money chasing coin sales, there's no question that supply has greatly surpassed demand. This tends to greatly affect premiums on many coins. I suppose not so much with gold though I don't know because I don't play in that ballpark....I'm still in the minor leagues playing with silver! :D




    As for your examples of the value of silver, those are not examples of inherent value in silver, but rather attached value. Silver has already been successfully discarded in the manufacture of solar panels in a number of examples, replaced by either aluminum or copper as well as all carbon solar cells have been developed. You can do the research as I have to learn the truth of this. I'm not claiming it's widespread replacement, rather the argument I'm making based on the facts is that silver IS NOT irreplaceable. Materials like graphene and newer materials not yet developed will almost certainly make silver not necessary in solar cell manufacturing. As for iPad's, they are also at risk for having the silver replaced by less costly materials. Silver is not irreplaceable at all. Hell, no country even considers silver as money any longer. Pretty seashells and money sticks move over....here comes silver! :lol: :p

    If silver had intrinsic or inherent value, it would have some objective value that no one could reasonable disagree with. But we already know beyond a shadow of a doubt that this never will happen because of the nature of different humans attaching different values to the same exact thing. We do know that silver has intrinsic properties and characteristics because all reasonable people can agree that silver has the intrinsic characteristic of having the atomic number of 47, the molar mass of 107.8682 g/mol, etc, etc, etc. We can even say that it has the intrinsic characteristic of having high thermal and electrical conductivity and is highly reflective. None of these characteristics require you or me to subjectively attach anything to silver. Silver has those characteristics and properties without any of us being alive and it is rational to assert that silver had these characteristics long before humans ever appeared on earth....otherwise it wouldn't have been what we today know as silver

    There's no inherent value in silver. All it's value is a result of the value humans attach to it driven by the primary factor called current demand.


    As for gold, there are similarities and differences with silver. I think we all know what these are. The most important difference to some is that gold still functions as a form of money between nations because Central Banks still accept it as payment for things like loans and I believe payment of debt, and CB's still value, store, and spend vast amounts of money protecting it's held gold.....but silver is left out of this important picture.



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  15. HotlineBling

    HotlineBling New Member

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    mmissinglink, from your posts I get the impression you are not a stacker of silver or gold. Almost appears you hate the stuff. Do you not have positions in either at the moment? keen to know what you stack.
     
  16. HotlineBling

    HotlineBling New Member

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    Should change the thread's title to "reasons not to stack silver" ...
     
  17. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    These days, I see myself more as a collector than stacker but I started out buying ounces of silver with a stacker mentality....that was before I stopped fearing the unlikely or implausible scenarios that caused me to believe certain things about precious metals out of reactionary fear. It was also before I stopped falling for the tall tales quite a number of other reactionary stackers were regurgitating.


    That I criticize something, doesn't necessarily mean I hate that thing. Besides, if you read my posts clearly, I am merely stating what I see as obvious truths about silver such as the fact that it isn't money because it doesn't function like money. I do hate some of the permabull lies that I hear.


    What exactly do you mean by "positions"?




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  18. postafoa

    postafoa New Member

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    we are all a bunch of crazies about to lose all our monies! Just invest all your monies into a pension fund.
     
  19. scrooged

    scrooged New Member

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    Love the sarcasm.

    Not loving the fact there's obviously rules for some and not others.


    ;)
     
  20. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    Silver may not be money, but in MY MIND it is money. Lol. Not that it makes it money, but in my mind it makes it so. I love the stuff. I love the shiny gold stuff. I love it when it is big or small, or medium size. I love it with pandas, or eagles, or people, or tigers or horses. It is beautiful. It is magical. It is mystical. It is delectable. I love the stuff. Whether someone deems it money or not, matters not to me. There is something inherently beautiful about these beautiful metals. Kings went to war for it. Pharaohs were enshrined with it. Temples were adorned in it. People buy their freedom with it. It has a 5000 year history, and most of that history is written about how folks can attain it, use it, spend it, hoard it, share it, and do so much more with it.
    Oh, I know our U.S propaganda machine says it is an artifact. I know they say it is 'tradition' for central banks to hold the stuff. I know they say it is a hunk of metal that just sits and collects dust. I know they want every U.S., citizen and citizen of the world, to believe the stuff is worthless, useless, pitiful, dirty, disgusting, and not worthy of eyes to look at, and our hands to touch. They do it for obvious reasons, because they know it is inherently valuable. It competes with their worthless, pitiful, ugly paper with green ink on it (or whatever ink yours uses)

    I'll always love the shiny stuff, no matter what Greenspan (although he has now changed his tune to the positive), Bernanke, Draghi, and all the rest of the gang says about my little precious darlings.

    Even Greenspan now admits this is the way to go!!!
    [​IMG]
     

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