Were it not for my investments in stocks and bonds and the liquidity of those assets, the past few years I would probably have had to sell my blobs and get killed (ROI) in the process. Silver is no panacea and silver blobs has been a very poor investment comparatively thus far. .
If only retardedly missing the point paid a return, eh m-m-mythbuster? [pssst: I don't know if you've realised, but the world doesn't exist just inside your head. The rest of us are here, and we're not going away!] Maybe reading isn't your strongest suit.. no-one disagrees that collectibles can return a good profit. It's just that your pin-headed arguments are utterly fatuous. It's not news (to most of us) that paying too much for an asset then selling at a lower price is a bad investment. But not all of us were stupid enough to buy bullion at the top of the market. So maybe your big insight is wasted on anyone with any sense and would be best directed at your dumb-ass younger self. Not that he'd listen. Actually I'd love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation. Maybe you'd even start a fistfight with yourself. Probably, I'd guess. That would make my day. Sorry you made some bad investments. Hope you do better next time. But meanwhile, spare us your Seven Stages of Denial. Turns out no-one is perfect.. even you!!.
I think each type of metal investment has a place. I can envision scenarios where collectibles will be worth no more than rounds or bars. I can also envision scenarios where a collectible will be worth 10 - 20 times more than generic metal. My problem is the same as all of us, I don't know the future. The key thing is to understand the possibilities, analyze your strategy, and make your decisions in an informed manner and subsequently adjust as more information becomes available. That is all one can truly do. One additional thing I will say is that I always hear people talking about up markets or down markets or high metal prices or low metal prices. What about a sideways market? That needs to be considered also.
Pssh.. I know the future, i'm going to pay taxes, first property tax then income tax. I dread it every year because I know its coming! Sideways markets are good for accumulating or speculating with those 3x multiplier etf's. semi-numi's do well in sideways markets.
Yeah, it's anyone's guess on where the price for silver, gold, numis, semi numis, bullion, blobs, rounds, etc...will be in a year, or two or 10, 20, 30, 40 years from now. I buy with a long-term hold perspective of about 15 - 20 years. I've diversified between semi-numi bullion and numi coins. I've made zero investments into 'generic govt bullion' such as maples, eagles, philharmonics, and others of like kind. Those follow the price of spot, with very limited ability for premiums to rise much above spot (plus a small % above spot). One needs to be careful in buying collectibles. I've seen folks jump head long into say the ANA 1 oz Anaheim PF70's for $500, 600, $700.00, and there is just little chance for these things to appreciate in value...IMHO...whether short, medium or long term. I could be wrong, but I just don't see it. Not with a mintage of 2000, an okay design, and a show medal. But if you picked the ANA PF70's for $180.00'ish, then I think you are sitting in a good spot to have prices appreciate in value. So, when buying collectibles, you have to be sure you're buying at a favorable price (as much as possible). Another example is the World Heritage Series. I was an early adopter of those at $480.00. They are beautiful. There are only 50 of the silver version minted. They were selling for $1000 - 1200 about 8 months or so after release. So again, be careful not to get caught up in the hype with the collectibles. Regarding the semi-numi play. Same lesson. When they first get introduced, MOST of the time are priced to sell...but over time the price increases, and if they are popular, prices increase pretty quickly. I think of the 2016 Pandas. I bought a slew of them for $20.50. Spot was a bit lower (15'ish), but the premiums on the pandas have gone up substantially. I heard that the 8 million were gone by June. The same with Kooks. The same with Lunars. It all depends on popularity, design, and quality. I love me some numis and semi-numi coins, not so much govt issued bullion.
That is the key Barsenault, as the consumer, to buy collectable coins / medals at the right time. Some will drop in price from the initial release or pre-release price. Some will just go up in value. It can be difficult to know which one's to buy when. I have waited for a few months after release to purchase some collectable coins / medals, some I have purchased on release or pre-release. I don't think any collectable coin or medal I have ever purchased depreciated as much as the value of my blobs have over the past few years. Some have gone up in relative value. It's different for dealers especially large dealers....they get price breaks that the consumer just isn't getting. I'm not saying that's wrong....just that this is the reality. So dealers don't necessarily lose money if they have a lower price than you or I but we might be losing money. But at the same time dealers have other issues to worry about like over-bought inventory and such. Here's how I see it.....the thing to always keep in mind is that in order for the physical blob or coin owner to ever see a penny of ROI, there must be a buyer. There are inherent risks with owning and wanting to sell blobs or collector coins....but in all cases, there must be a buyer. If PM's go the way of money sticks and pretty seashells the blob owners are probably screwed. If future generations completely lose interest in owning any collectable coins, then semi-numi / numi coin owners are probably screwed. .
Amen brother. Agreed on your analysis. Indeed you are correct. I think (hope) silver will always have value due to the demands of industry. But if there is ever a substitute for this metal in electronics, or solar, medical, etc...that too could spell doom for the metal (over supply). So, if people lose interest in stacking silver (which I really don't see happening - it's so beautiful - and it has 5000 years of history proving it has value of some kind), and if silver is replaced by some other element, then I see the whole stacker community going up in flames. Lol. Now gold, man, I just don't see how it is possible for that stuff to go away. Central banks hoard the stuff. Indians love the stuff. The chinese love the stuff. It may not go to 10k, but I don't see much downside on that precious metal...nor do I see much downside for silver...I'm just playing out the hypothetical scenario. I do think blobs, govt bullion, semi and numi all will have their day in the sun. However, I've seen some videos where a guy has like 1000 pieces of these crazy images, and I'm thinking to myself, when it comes time for him to sell that stuff, who in the world is going to buy all of that? Maybe they'll buy it for under spot, and remelt to make U.S. silver eagles? But dang, IMHO, I think that dude is stupid to buying all those funky pieces of silver, ESPECIALLY if he is looking to raise cash quick. Again, if silver is at $50.00 and he bought at 18.00, and he got a decent price over spot, then it may not matter if he sells for under spot, you know? And all along the way, he got to marvel over these 1000 pieces that he enjoys looking at. Lol.
Good points Barsenault. I also do believe that for the foreseeable future, precious metals will continue to be sought after by some people and therefore it will continue to have some value....to what level I don't know and no one really knows. More or less, supply and demand drives prices and demand could be weak and supply can increase for decades or longer to come. Therefore we could see silver prices move sideways for many, many decades to come. No one knows for sure. Gold has a different function than silver in our society. Gold is stored and protected in Central Banks....silver isn't. Gold serves as a form of money by most first world nations...silver doesn't. For the average person, neither functions as money but if any one metal were to function as money it would be gold, not silver. There's probably billions and billions and billions of ounces of silver in the form of coins and bullion that are owned by stackers or ordinary people and institutional investors and investment firms.....there's an enormous amount of silver in the world for the foreseeable future and no amount of industrial usage of silver will put even a dent into this surplus I think. And, the more efficient mining becomes (which it does), the more surplus will be added to the massive surplus that's already at hand. The US Mint has millions of ASE's sitting on shelves not being purchased. I suspect that other major mints also have lots and lots of bullion sitting on shelves collecting dust too. When I first started stacking, I foolishly believed the fairy tale story of the farcical global currency collapse followed by the end of days was just around the corner. Since those early days, I have come to see those stories as the fictional tales they actually are. That's why I no longer buy silver in the form of blobs. Silver could go sideways or down for many more years. Way too much risk to be buying blobs especially if I have the need to cash out. At least with collector coins, there's a chance that I can make a little profit should I need to sell the coins I have. Thank goodness I don't need to at the moment. And I'm not saying that collector coins are always a good investment....they often aren't. But so long as silver is in the dumps, buying blobs is even a worse way to invest my money in my view since I no longer believe in the fairy tale global currency collapse / end of days around the corner.. .
I don't believe in currency collapse but I just added 100 oz of blobs.. lol. Going for GSR conversion.
I did diversify a bit because I do like the collector stuff too. Since i got shafted on modern proof libertads, i added some already tarnished older libertads. and the pretty blobs. If there is a SHTF scenario, i could always melt it into a knife or use it as a slapstick to defend myself if it doesn't work as currency.
Yeah, right except that in a SHTF scenario silver will be useless and the energy that it would require to melt and form silver into a useful thing would far exceed the value of the silver itself. .
SHTF, i don't rely on PM's. I prefer Smith & Wesson and basic medical training. A makeshift furnace isn't too hard to make with some plaster, a metal bucket, some basic tools, and charcoal. I'm one of those DIY kinda folks. A lot of aussies are like that too. A foundry can be pretty useful in shtf. I've been through a SHTF scenario before, not economic SHTF, but a flood that stranded me in a third world country, little water no food. That's kinda what got me into the prep/pm/guns/medical thing. PM's mean nothing when there is nothing available. Then you have to rely on what you have. Preparedness is like security and usually done in layers. 1.) Equipment 2.) Skills/Training 3.) Practice 4.) Knowledge. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHD10DjxM1g[/youtube]
Some day I would like to learn of your experience in that flood situation. I would argue that perhaps "knowledge" should be "1)". The energy needed to melt silver will be by far the most expensive part of the process I believe.....particularly in a SHTF scenario.....but of course I do think you were being facetious when you write "i could always melt it into a knife or use it as a slapstick" .
lol. yes, i was joking about the slapstick, i have several knives I'd use first and yes knowledge is definitely number 1. I also do triathlons/half marathons to keep my cardio up. When it was flooded, I literally had to travel/walk around for 2 hours just to find some water, let alone transport any metals. Tap water was contaminated w. sewage. The first thing people hoard is water and food. Even my own family was rationing water, I had to go out and buy FIJI water because it was the only one locals didn't buy because it was expensive. I've never looked at a fiji water bottle the same. In fact, one of the first things I did when I got back to the states was buy a Katadyne pocket filter. Now whenever I travel, the first thing I do is go to a local market and buy a couple of gallons or a 24 pack of water. lol I also throw in the katadyn in the luggage just in case. Hurricanes, like what's happening on the east coast is exactly why I bring it with me!
Silverpv, thank you for that informative, troubling, and humorous ("I've never looked at a fiji water bottle the same.") account of your experience. I may now have to strongly consider the idea of throwing a pocket water filter into my bag when I travel. Assuming that you may have already done some research on this, is the Katadyn the best and the one you'd recommend. Oh, and to others who may still be reading this thread, sorry that this thread has gone a little off topic. "We now return control of your television set to you." .
back on the topic.. i sold the pf70 2016 proof libertads for $200/oz and buyer just returned one because of a spot found. I had these in mylar bags, in intercept anti-tarnish bags, with dessicants. There's is not much more I could've done to protect it any better than that. These were graded 2-3 months ago. So the moral of the story... Spots will destroy the premium of $100/oz. I've accepted the return because obviously its not what the buyer purchased and refund the transaction. I'm not likely to sell these at the $200/oz rate and lost probably 50% just like that. *tears*. The katadyne is a silver impregnated ceramic which is more expensive than $100/oz. It is the more expensive version but one that is well reviewed and respected. Its durable and built to last. There are cheaper alternatives that use plastic or cleans smaller volume of water like the life straw. It's considerably lighter, but if you ware with a family the katadyne is top notch. Easily top 3 filters and its the same filter for 10+ years. it never depreciated and is the same price it was 5 years ago even more expensive now in many cases. I bought mine on amazon for $260 back in 2011, which has help up better than a blob.
